XAUUSD near term outlook based on Saudi oil news: Gold targets

OANDA:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Quick plot of key zones after the Jump from Saudi oil field attacks.

First expect small continuation to the .236 extension of gap up.
Next expect a pullback from profit taking and bears shorting it.
Then will come the real move, roughly an AB=CD of the gap up.

Of course, any further news will have more impact than the technicals.
But even in cases of new information, the important zones will still react.
Thus worth observing behavior around each zone over the next 24 hours.


Previous Gold Analysis (click):
$1555 top call <= perfect Short
$1406 long to $1525 <= massive profits
$1450 top call < just in time
Uptrend Landmarks
$1386 bounce
$1400 bounce
$1439 top call
$1332 bounce
$1320 top Call
$1270 bounce
$1280 break
$1380 call <= 5 mos ago

Of course, I have had total FAILS on some ideas too, not going to pretend.
But all of my plots show PRECISE entries, TIGHT stops, and EXACT targets.
Precision is the way of the Fib. Almost every turn happens at a Fib Line.

Comment: Secondary surge went higher than expected, but exactly to an expected zone. So it went the .328 extension instead of just the .236 as originally plotted. So it is perhaps even more bullish than expected, but lets see how far it pulls back and then gauge.

Comment: Possible adjustments to the zones, based on the secondary surge now lets see if the new boundaries prove effective (with exact reactions). Unfortunately the new zones are wider than originals.
Comment: Zoomed way in, watching for a break to either side and jump to next band (up or down).

Comment: So it broke out to low side

Placing a fib on the pullback (in purple) we see a perfect .786 retrace and then decline, with a near perfect bounce at the -0.382 extension. That COULD be it for the pullback, but I am thinking at least one more small leg down to the -0.618 extension which would also be a retest of $1500 round. If it breaks above the red zone just above (1504-05) before breaking lower, then I will conclude we are going up from there

Comment: Throwing in some Elliott Waves looks like a near perfect 'ABC' retrace, where A and C are 5 wave moves, and B is a 3wave more. As such, C could extend down to the 1501 target. Also, dont be surprised by a stop hunt below 1500 round, perhaps at London Open, and then the real move up.

Comment: Target hit exactly watching very closely now, might bounce, or might pierce and hit the next zone below. A stop hunt below 1500 round is almost begging to be done by London.
Comment: More perfect "Pings" ie: Adds to the confidence of ALL the lines and Zones.

Comment: About 1 hour before London Open, so perhaps a Holding Pattern until then with consolidation (tripping all hands) before the next move, just like we saw earlier today (circled)

Comment: So much for the holding pattern. This little bounce looks to have some "Fib Legs" if so, we should see 1512 in London session

Comment: London just opened and price dropped a bit probably from profit taking by longs who held over the weekend. A big gap like that is a "Bonus" that many traders will cash in and then look to reenter. Lets see if they push below 1500 round for all those stops that will be there ....

Comment: Looks like London wants to push down alright Fib of the drop indicates possible end of wave at the red 4.236, but bounce is not impressive. As mentioned earlier, a stop sweep below 1500 round would be expect-able....

Comment: That pinged the adjusted .382 retracement interesting that the peak extended to -0.382 extension, and has retrace to the .382. Lets see if this bounce holds, but I would not be surprised by another push down to the .618 retracement around $1495...

Comment: Bounce is holding so far. $1504-1505 still the resistance to break

Comment: Fib of the drop from UK open precise pings on the way down, return to Impulse, rejected on first re-approach. So the core of the resistance will be in 1505.44-05.86 (golden pocket of the impulse down) and that will be the zone to watch

Comment: sorry for lack of updates, been offline. Kind of a messy day for Gold, but every zone has shown relevance maybe it just needs to kiss that last zone at $1495 for launch towards original target BUT it seems the bounce from $149x might have happened already.

Comment: As of London Open, we had dipped below the "Bullish Invalidation" zone aroudn $1495 However, that could very well have been a stop sweep below support. If it bounces right here, or at most at the Green .764-.786 zone supported by the Blue 4.236 (possible end of down wave), then we can still remain bull. But if it breaks below the green .786 retracement, then I will not be bullish unless some news develops to add to the uncertainty.

Comment: Possible ABC wave compleltion A-B wave is blue fib to 3.236 ext with perfect pings between, then the B-C wave is red fib, perfect 4.236 end point

Comment: this little bounce at London Open does appear to have "Fib Legs" even a pullback to 1496 would keep a bullish momentum

Comment: This is the "Pulse" fib of last bounce Pulse as in the minimum increment of movement. Notice the many clear reactions to multiples thereof.

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Your understanding and implementation of Fibs is a pleasure to watch and learn from.... really enjoyed the entire walk-through from the beginning through to the last of the updates. Thank you for sharing.
Great idea. I have a question. How do you think about natural gas prices? I thought it's price almost short term high, but price keep trying to breach higher high.
Hey buddy, I have a question. Do you prefer to wait for a buy opportunity when the prices tries to go down to the 1495 for a deeper retracement or just buy if it breaks 1505 resistance. What's your take?
EuroMotif abdullahfarhan7
@abdullahfarhan7, hi again, I would strongly prefer to buy the 1495 zone, am hoping for a deeper stop hunt below 1500 round.
But yeah, if bulls can punch above 1505, the I will look for a retest of 1505 from above, and go long.
+1 Reply
@EuroMotif, Perfect and solid plan. Cheers.
Brilliant, Brilliant and Brilliant. I love the fact you keep updating man. Great stuff. Thank you for that
EuroMotif abdullahfarhan7
@abdullahfarhan7, ty friend.
and glad to hear you like the many updates (am always worried some might consider it spam on such small tf's.
But a Monday open, after much uncertainty being introduced over the weekend, we gotta watch very closely....
+4 Reply
@EuroMotif, I definitely think the more, the better. Other traders sometimes post analysis and leave us in limbo when things aren't going to plan. I love the fact you updated the zones and showcased new parameters to take the trade after the Saudi news. Now that I know its confirmed bullish trend, I can just leave a buy limit in one of those zones. These updates are vital! Thanks again :)
+1 Reply
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