Gold 3, March 2017: Correctional - short then long
Gold rally from 1216 to 1263 looks like a large irregular flat at this point. From my last idea I went short at 1259 and my targets now are 1227-1225 (running flat) or 1220-1215 (expanded flat) - under the green lines are usually ideal for flats to end.
After which the longs positions should want to retest the high or break it. For now I can only assume that it breaks the high for the rally to continue. But bears have advantage because 1263 high is still bearish on the weekly. So if the weekly closes red this week then I'll be looking to short the retest.
After which the longs positions should want to retest the high or break it. For now I can only assume that it breaks the high for the rally to continue. But bears have advantage because 1263 high is still bearish on the weekly. So if the weekly closes red this week then I'll be looking to short the retest.
Comment:
TP 1225 hit and took off some small shorts. However I'm still bias short until I see some nice bull strength here. Technicals say more downside and since this is C wave down there ought to be strong divergence on H1/H4 to indicate reversal. Also I have secondary target zone 1218-1215 (1212 extended).
Comment:
Looks like 1223 can hold but I'm weary due to lack of divergence. So I'm calculating my 5th wave of C ending between 1218-1215 which would hopefully produce it. Then I'll be comfortable going long. BUT have to keep in mind that a running flat is possible here and I've been $2-5 dollars off my final targets for the past 3-4 trade plans.
Looks like 1223 can hold but I'm weary due to lack of divergence. So I'm calculating my 5th wave of C ending between 1218-1215 which would hopefully produce it. Then I'll be comfortable going long. BUT have to keep in mind that a running flat is possible here and I've been $2-5 dollars off my final targets for the past 3-4 trade plans.
Comment:
My shorts SL set at 1234 pivot due to possible news (I don't track news but I heard Yellen is speaking).
Comment:
If Monday gold does a little rally to break Friday's high, then I'll be loading up longs at the 1228-1227 lvl. The channel indicates that flat is likely over, and retracement of larger degree wave 1 of 3 and wave 5 of C correction targets have been met.
Alternative scenario: If gold keeps drifting downwards without breaking Friday high, then I don't think there's an impulse move to buy retracement off of. Could be some other kind of ranging pattern to bearish. If so the next area of interest for me is 1219-1213.
If Monday gold does a little rally to break Friday's high, then I'll be loading up longs at the 1228-1227 lvl. The channel indicates that flat is likely over, and retracement of larger degree wave 1 of 3 and wave 5 of C correction targets have been met.
Alternative scenario: If gold keeps drifting downwards without breaking Friday high, then I don't think there's an impulse move to buy retracement off of. Could be some other kind of ranging pattern to bearish. If so the next area of interest for me is 1219-1213.
Comment:
Doesn't look very bullish on the wave count from rally off 1222. Possibly mini c rally then drop again for abc. I'm waiting for daily close to see if 5 wave structure of bigger C is complete before triggering longs. Currently buy limits set at 1214-1211 and scalping shorts.
Comment:
Getting ready to long this zone:
1209-1205. Also, daily is now showing 5 waves.
1209-1205. Also, daily is now showing 5 waves.
Comment:
I didn't expect 127.2 fib target to give a bullish response. In this scenario, Gold tends to blast through the 161.8 tp and hit 188 tp. So if 1214 doesn't hold I'll be buying 1199-1198 instead. While the trend line remains and no divergence on H4, I'm shorting the retests for time being.
Comment:
My first set of longs are activated at 1198. I consider this early positions because its based off my previous count above. The current C wave down is 5th wave extended which changes my original irregular flat pattern to be larger than expected. The targets I'm looking at for 5th of C is the 100fib (1195) or 127fib (1184). These zones offer good risk-reward for me even if the rally is merely a retest high.
The bear rally from 1163 to 1195 now stands at $60-70 which is a good spot for profit taking.
My first set of longs are activated at 1198. I consider this early positions because its based off my previous count above. The current C wave down is 5th wave extended which changes my original irregular flat pattern to be larger than expected. The targets I'm looking at for 5th of C is the 100fib (1195) or 127fib (1184). These zones offer good risk-reward for me even if the rally is merely a retest high.
The bear rally from 1163 to 1195 now stands at $60-70 which is a good spot for profit taking.
Comment:
Bull looks promising here. Notice on the chart the 1199 is 161.8 projection for C off A to B wave. Then 1195 is projection for 5th of C. Lets see how H4 and Daily closes. If daily and H4 firms up off these levels, then I'll take that as confirmation.
Then I'll put up new chart for bull targets. My longs are currently 1195-1198 and looking to add ideally.
Bull looks promising here. Notice on the chart the 1199 is 161.8 projection for C off A to B wave. Then 1195 is projection for 5th of C. Lets see how H4 and Daily closes. If daily and H4 firms up off these levels, then I'll take that as confirmation.
Then I'll put up new chart for bull targets. My longs are currently 1195-1198 and looking to add ideally.
The ideal situation is to have both positions in play and let the SL of either side ride. These minor losses can be recovered with additional positions after.