Kumowizard

Gold - Little bit confusing signals,but time to watch at support

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
486 8 4
Weekly:
- Ichimoku setup is bearish/neutral. Price turned down from Kumo resistance, and the trend is still bearish . However Kumo overshades Price and few weeks ago a weak bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross happened. Chikou Span has no open space at all. Kijun Sen at 1220 should act as stronger support/ resistance now. New bearish acceleration would take place only below 1200.
- weekly HA candle is red, haDelta and SMA3 back below zero line.

The most optimal situation would be to catch a bullish HA signal a bit lower in the 1200-1220 zone. But markets are never that easy to catch. So we rather have to focus on daily signals.
One thing is sure, for a strategic bullish reversal Gold             should break and close above 1300.

Daily:
We have some mixed signals here as well, and I think it is really time to watch for a possible bullish swing.

- On the daily time frame Gold             has been developing a bullish channel. Price action is in wave four pull back, reaching a very important support zone at 1220-1225. We have Senkou B, horizontal support and a bit lower the bullish trend support. In terms of Ichimoku it should be considered a Kumo retest (back to breakout level) where we should focus on possible bullish signals again.
- due to the swing down Ichimoku setup has turned a bit neutral from bullish , with Kumo overshade, Chikou Span down to Price candles too, and we almost have a weak bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross. However Senkou A (future Kumo top) still points up.
- Heiken Ashi candle is still red with no upper wick, but the body is smaller that's why haDelta crossed above its SMA3. Bearish pressure may slow down a bit.
We must watch HA signals carefuly at this support. A doji like candle or a green switch would mean a possible reversal up again to start 5th wave within the minor trend.
Mihay_Zlodey
2 years ago
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Kumotrader
2 years ago
Could you please elaborate on what "kumo overshade" means and its implications? Thanks!
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KleinerWicht Kumotrader
2 years ago
Cloud produces a 'shadow'! Price still below kumo, kumo-future bearish.


If there is an other meaning I would be pleased for a correct explination! :)
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Kumowizard PRO KleinerWicht
2 years ago
Exactly. Immagine you are flying on an airplane above the Cloud. Sun is shining. When the plain comes lower the Cloud starts to make a shadow, less sunshine. When you enter the Cloud it is neutral. So when the Kumo shades the Price, that means the bullish sentiment is less strong, turning to neutral a bit.
Same is valid for Chikou Span. When Chikou has an open space ahead, the momentum of the trend is stronger. When Chikou loses open space or hits Price candles, the momentum fades.
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Kumotrader Kumowizard
2 years ago
Thanks for the clarification!
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Sharky8899.
2 years ago
Hi guys,

I know you guys hate bears, but look at the first chart, it hits the upper channel goes down to lower channel, and this pattern reapeats it self, stochastick on weekly also confirm this pattern,
in my oppinion if you buy here you are going aginst a realy strong pattern, its been consistent for 3 years now.
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Kumowizard PRO Sharky8899.
2 years ago
I don't think anybody hates bears. Sometimes I am bearish, sometimes I am bullish. It is all about probabilities. :-)
You are right, that's why I wrote "confusing signals". On the weekly it is bearish. On the daily it is bullish still with a pull back now within the trend. That's why we use stops. If a long trade has chance, this is the zone to buy. If bears take back control, then the worst is we lose some money according to our risk-management. Risk vs Reward is the key.
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Sharky8899. Kumowizard
2 years ago
Yes its quite interesting, also if you look at the commitment of traders report on gold, you can see more net short positions compared to the long positions, i only trade long term, so i don't care about the bounce's along the way, rather i would have take short position on the next high. To me it will be interesting to see how the commercial players is going to play gold via the information trough COT.
Whats also interesting is the dollar, i don't know if you looked up the chart of the dollar index, but its has huge divergences, and the rally has been extreme, since gold trade vs the dollar, any sharp movement in the dollar will differently have positive impact on gold, what do you think about the dollar index? that being said i am long gold stocks since i expect another short term bounce in gold xDDD.
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