OANDA:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Fundamentals:

Bullish
I am overal bullish on gold due to a global economic slow up;
The USD that is going to start devaluating due to the US cutting interest rates to counter the very high US dollar strength, and therefor people flocking to gold .

Bearish
We have had a very big run for now with almost no drawback starting from around 13.000 in June to the monthly high at around 15.550 in September.
I feel like XAUUSD is overdue a good correction only to start running up to new highs towards the end of October.
The COT report shows a lot of traders/leveraged money long on gold (at around 85%) which is very high. This means a lot of liquidity is in the market at lower levels right now, and I feel this liquidity is to be taken. Because too many people would make money on an upward move right now.

Technicals:

We broke the 14.800 - 14.900 monthly support level down to 14.600. A retest is now happening as we speak at around 14.800 but I do not see us close the daily strongly above 14.900 - 15.000.

Therefor a now see a small swing trade from the 14.800 level down to the 14.4500 level.

Let's see.

Comments

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