chartwatchers
Long

GOLD - COT report full analysis

FX_IDC:XAUUSD   GOLD / US DOLLAR
5099 67 75
3 months ago
I repost here my weekend's COT analysis what I posted on twitter as a private idea 2 days ago.
We were waiting for today's gold             pop.

The Commitment of Traders report (COT) is published at the close of every Friday's trade and it always shows the Tuesday COT data. The formula for Blees rating uses the Commercial Traders net contract holdings at the date of the current COT report. We inserted the Blees rating into the daily chart .

If we accept that the bear market in gold             ended in 2015 December we have to accept the fact that the Blees rating must be used with the commercial net short position and open interest in the bull market...
In the bear market the Blees rating at 100 meant that price slowly turning up and we will have some kind of a rally. When these rallies topped the Blees never reached the 0 level usually it was turning down from 30-40, and sometimes already from 60-70.

In 2015 December and 2016 January price was in a range for 2 months and the Blees were near to 100 for weeks. It was a very bullish sign. At the same time the commercial net short position was at extreme low levels: below 100k. For a few days it was near to zero!
From the 1st of Feb to 22nd March the net short went up : it was between 100 and 200k.
From the 22nd March to 13th June net short positions were between 200 and 300k. But there was an interesting thing at the last 2 weeks of May. The net short position dropped by 100k in 2 weeks...
Commercials were closing their shorts in the first correction. At that time gold             printed its ICL.
From the 13th of June to 27th Sept the commercial net short climbed up above 300k. It was a record high level.
In July-August- September the commercial long positions were coming down slowly from 470k to 410k but price was just in a range. And when we had the steep drop at the beginning of October commercials immediately closed 25% of their short positions in a week. The net short positions dropped by 100k by this week Tuesday...
At the same time the blees popped to 35 . Though at the bear market a 35 blees were not an important number for a rally to begin based on the 30th May Blees rating jump and commercial net short drop we will have a strong rally again.
3 months ago
Comment: Just a short reminder: daily swing will be completed at 1265.21$.
The rally will shift gear at that point. DO NOT TRY TO SHORT AT RESISTANCES.
This is going to be a powerful rally this time.
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3 months ago
Comment: We are under "bull protection".
I hope you enjoy...
2 months ago
Comment: It's very exciting to watch how banks are preparing
the fleece of small players.
THey've stopped out the shorts at the range breakout.
Now they are entering withthe shorts at lower prices again in the last big hourly candle.
Though we are just testing back the daily swing level.
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2 months ago
Comment: It's too late for a lower low.
If they wanted a lower low could have been a lower low in the last 8 days.
2 months ago
Comment: I will come out with a new gold post today.
I few people are getting nervous again.
I think there is nothing to worry about guys. We are just bouncing from the daily 10 EMA and I think by the close we will be around 1268$ : closing above the 200 SMA.
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2 months ago
Comment: I few people are getting nervous again. = But I see a few people are getting nervous again.
2 months ago
Comment: The contract dump starts again today. ( No question this is an american seller "it" doesn't like to trade in the night)
It's very important if natural buying pressure could win again this paper manipulation today.
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JesseL
3 months ago
It all boils down to the Dollar and it's inverse relation to Gold....

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+2 Reply
Nightstar JesseL
3 months ago
Not sure I agree with that assessment.. Gold can traded with the dollar. Gold also went up the last time they raised rates dispelling the belief that a rise in interest rates would completely squash Gold.
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848evo Nightstar
3 months ago
If Gold and the Dollar correlate 95% of the time, you gonna trade based on the belief you're in that remaining 5% window?
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Nightstar 848evo
3 months ago
Except those percentages are wrong my good friend :)
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848evo Nightstar
3 months ago
You sure? of course not exactly 95/5 and there's obviously no TF specified, but on a quick look, over the past month, correlation has been at 91%. Either way, i'm not going to continue this convo any further as I can see it's a waste of time. You seem new and if you honestly believe DXY and Gold doesn't correlate, ok, good luck to you!
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Nightstar 848evo
3 months ago
I'm totally new. Just started yesterday, Lol! Does anybody have any extra candles I can borrow.. I'm trying to build a chart :)
+3 Reply
chartwatchers PRO Nightstar
3 months ago
:D
+1 Reply
Perseus Nightstar
3 months ago
Nightstar don't bother listening to this guy, he gives advice based on his position, not what is actually going on. He makes up "sell clusters".
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848evo Perseus
3 months ago
OMG...you again? the guy who can't read a simple chart...sigh...for anyone else, look at my chart and see the PA for yourself, then decide if I'm "making these up".
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Perseus 848evo
3 months ago
Yes please read his chart with tons and tons of "sell clusters in the 40's". Then look at how on the 14th, gold barely reached 1246, before shooting back up. But there was apparently tons of sell clusters in the 40's lmao.
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Nightstar Nightstar
3 months ago
*trade with..
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f1l1per.
3 months ago
long waiting for this rally
Many signs on Gold
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Bearbud
3 months ago
Thank you Arpi, been holding positions with you!!
+2 Reply
GoGreen
3 months ago
Currently, gold is trading below the 200-DMA that will restrict upside at $1,270
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VirtualFax GoGreen
3 months ago
The first part of the statement is obvious but I don't think I agree with the conclusion. Could you lay down the logic?
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GoGreen VirtualFax
3 months ago
According to my understanding if gold fall below $1,245 will continue the downtrend with $1,233 as the next target. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have improved, suggesting a positive trend ahead. I will buy above the 200-DMA. For me trend is in the middle.

8 hours ago as ÁrpádÁrpád said: DO NOT TRY TO SHORT AT RESISTANCES. A break above the 200 SMA and holding these gains. I am agree with him on this.
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USSRandolph
3 months ago
What is your assessment of the top side in gold' coming Rally? Not trying to pick a top or bottom, just trying to capture the remaining 60 to 65 pct in the middle. I'm looking at 1360 to 1365. Thanks Arpi... Or anyone who chooses to respond.
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Ronnee
3 months ago
For what it's worth, I have to agree that whist the Dollar is at these comparatively high levels, gold is range bound..With the continued waffle of rate hikes, which are becoming less likely at any time. And the most likely, a democrat again in the White House, Stocks and the dollar are likely to stay higher until years end. Next year I feel a resession will start and stocks an Dollar will decline allowing gold to go to a new high.
The dollar is the key, at present its still seen as worlds best of the top currencies, however, if the US goes into a resession next year after the election, then the dollar will decline, opening the door for gold...just my view.....Means nothin if Trump wins, gold will bolt anyway! Cheers good luck to all....bought a small lot at 1250..tight SL...
+1 Reply
Ronnee
3 months ago
Further, to my thoughts,is if Yellen does tighten in Dec, Gold may spike lower initially, but this will spark a resession which will set gold on a run up.. Cheers..
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OrangeTrader93
3 months ago
Awesome insight. I've been trying to incorporate COT reports in my charts.
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eyeshot
3 months ago
A funny world here! Some traders are thanking at chartwatchers that they still hold long with him though posi in minus. As soon as gold cracks 1273 it would be better to concentrate on 1211 and 1204 before gold rises to 1313 /to fall again/.
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chartwatchers PRO eyeshot
3 months ago
Yes they are happy because they've survived an ICL decline and experienced the most important rules of trading by themselves. These happy people were able to control their emotions in a loosing situation and not stopping out at the bottom where you were adding to your shorts.All who were holding with me has the chance to reach financial freedom and make a real big money in this gold bull. Thats what makes us different from simple gambler like You. :)
+7 Reply
nexuz chartwatchers
3 months ago
and these happy traders are enjoying the nearly 30% jnug profit so far :) as arpi and other pro traders always say: patience is the key
+2 Reply
Hks6996 nexuz
3 months ago
Totally agree patience is key... I could have sold DUST for a lost several times and almost did... I missed a few times to get out with a small profit... then that huge gold ICL came finally and I made a ton of money... without patience you will lose every time.
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Perseus eyeshot
3 months ago
Where are you short from, the 50's? Should have used at SL my friend, I almost feel bad if you weren't so arrogant.
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VirtualFax eyeshot
3 months ago
Man, by the end of Dec everybody will already be selling their DUST/JDST (after buying them at the bottom sometime in Nov) and getting ready to re-enter Gold on the long side again. So what's your point here? Waiting on the sidelines until then?

Also, I know that often times patterns suck with Gold but if this one works out we might be a few bucks above $1,273 as soon as today:

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chartwatchers PRO eyeshot
3 months ago
:)
I was buying all the way down. I was not worried I have a bull protection.
In 2-3 weeks we will be above 1360.
You will not see 1205 in the next 10 years. Most probably never in your lifetime.
Same as sub 30$ oil prices.
+2 Reply
eyeshot chartwatchers
3 months ago
And finally, yes, I'm short @ 1273.05, with only 1.5 $ SL and 1. TP 1262.85, 2. TP 1211.50
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chartwatchers PRO eyeshot
3 months ago
Man we are hunting here for 200-300$ in 2-3 months.
Take your 1 minute chart gamble games somewhere else.
+5 Reply
toothless chartwatchers
3 months ago
That ICL decline definitely tested my emotions, but I trusted chartwatcher's logic and assessment, and am very thankful for his analyses. Agree or disagree with him, you won't find more thorough analysis ANYWHERE on this site. Trust me, I've looked.
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console chartwatchers
3 months ago
well said
+1 Reply
carlo.paco PRO
3 months ago
Hi chartwatcher, is it still a good time to enter the market or the train has left and it is better to wait next stop ?

cheers

-Carlo
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I am enjoying, learning and growing gold nuggets ;)
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VirtualFax
3 months ago
What's "bull protection" anyway? Mind elaborating for the ignorant, like me? : )
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GoGreen
3 months ago
Gold is standing at R2 1271. I hope we will see a bull after today close.
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marketplaceguy
3 months ago
thanks..
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joper35
3 months ago
can you tell me what is ICL?
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VirtualFax joper35
2 months ago
Intermediate cycle low - happens once every five month or so (see Dec 2015, May 2016 and Oct 2016 lows)
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console
3 months ago
whats bull protection ?
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10:00 EST -- Whiskey Tango Foxtrot!!!
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LeonardoModi
2 months ago
So now it can be a good time to go long?
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MainStreetTrading
2 months ago
Hi Apri, where do you get the data about the commercial shorts? and why are we under a bull protection?

Thanks, Dave
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chartwatchers PRO MainStreetTrading
2 months ago
http://news.goldseek.com/COT/
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MainStreetTrading chartwatchers
2 months ago
Thanks for the info!
+1 Reply
Perseus
2 months ago
You tell em, these banks can kiss my ass.
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Nightstar Perseus
2 months ago
Lol! I just read your profile message :)
+1 Reply
Perseus Nightstar
2 months ago
Ya man you believe it. I guess the best way to put it is if you were to fill an empty pool with gold, then walk down the slope until you're tits deep in it.

That's were I currently am with my portfolio.
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VirtualFax
2 months ago
Thanks Arpi. Your analysis explains a lot.
+1 Reply
SalN
2 months ago
thinking just a gap fill (micro wave 4) then back up.
+1 Reply
ArtFly
2 months ago
Arpi, Do not you think we can have a correction and test 1200? To complete the full correction we started subwave 4 and for me is still missing five down....
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Prof7 ArtFly
2 months ago
Arpi, we are calm - I am still hold on long Gold from 1342 (you advised it 8 September, before Draghi speech). Hope gold will come back soon to this levels.
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chartwatchers PRO ArtFly
2 months ago
The only thing we might get a test of 1239-1240. Even for that we need more rally in the dollar , SM pop and a rate hike promise before the elections.
i think the chance is 0.0000000001% for 1200$.
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Prof7 chartwatchers
2 months ago
Great, only hope that overnight swap will not eats all deposit ). By the way, may be it's a good idea for right money management, to announce for yours followers from what level have a sense to open hedge positions ?
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VRShaiju chartwatchers
2 months ago
What should I say. What if.. probably

I ashmed myself as a fool idiot contrarian view trader.

Some one contacted me over phone to request to look for your COT analysis. I was so happy to read your chart analysis which is top class. Until I see this comment. Never try to beat the market.

Feels like you NEVER let me retire my gold trading in next 10 years :). I placed some order physical gold from 1055.

you made completly wrong call on DXY and you made another contrarian call on gold. Please your followers. But never let them keep in darkness. Good luck good friend.
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toothless
2 months ago
But miners are climbing! Look good to me!
+1 Reply
epalazzo
2 months ago
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2use
2 months ago
Do you trust this?
GOLD / Welcome back / 100% and Transition 1262
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chartwatchers PRO 2use
2 months ago
I love his software i know its giving a sell signal, but I wouldn't dare to short it now.
It's extremely dangerous.
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2use chartwatchers
2 months ago
Problem is i kinda like both views as well, as you tend to be right. But it is indeed contradicting
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investment6300
2 months ago
Apri thanks for great medium term insight. A great analyst to bring a balance view with patterns to look at in long and short term I found to manage risk outlook to make a personal decision if you want to keep through the bumps (unexpected retracements to be expected) and which pump you might encounter with deep retracements I found with retrace and resistance to skip> https://www.youtube.com/user/ForexPeaceArmyCOM/videos. with daily and weekly insight from weekly to hourly charts that have been very good with both sentiments in either bull and bear. Having the balance with Apri insight which so incredible and a master of his field and Steve in his just brings it so together for risk to hold the ride or drop as each one decides to a plan of his commitment. It's a privilege to see Apri at work and thanks again. As I am in my neck with jnug and nug keeping my finger on the pulse to manage risk the best in my swing trading Apri has given my most insight.
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There is a good chance of this happening. One more leg down. Check this EW count.
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pedrolbe pbartashevich
2 months ago
"i think the chance is 0.0000000001% for 1200$"...
and that´s how you loose money..
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VirtualFax pbartashevich
2 months ago
I have come up with the same potential scenario. Though I wouldn't sell my longs yet but, at least, will hedge if the pattern continues developing within the channel.

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bracken
2 months ago
The short side of the long looks a bit strong for my liking
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VirtualFax bracken
2 months ago
Same here
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VirtualFax
2 months ago
It's been a pretty freaken' strong rally which, obviously doesn't help Gold at all). I wish we had something similar in Gold.

So far today we crushed last before one resistance on the way to 100.00, breaking out upwards of what originally looked like a bearish flag! 50MA crossed in a bullish manner its 100MA counterpart last week and the 200MA yesterday. The indicators also don't look very bearish. With all the respect, it's hard to see a strong bullish case for Gold in these circumstances...

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VirtualFax
2 months ago
This can't last for long. One will have to give up. Buck looks technically stronger atm, but when two such manipulated securities involved you never know...

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