chartwatchers
Long

GOLD - Panic selling

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
4106 61 52
Posting the 2 days earlier private idea. The newest gold             updates you can find on my twitter account as a private idea link.
Breaking down 1310 on Tuesday we entered into the panic selling stage. Panic selling is always a last stage of an intermediate cycle. Usually this is the time when you can short a bull market, because the decline is steep. Unfortunately I missed it.
Timewise it's too early to enter into the intermediate decline on week 18 but it happened.
So instead of guessing why did it happen - elections, bank manipulation etc - I would like to set the possible targets where gold             could bottom.

First of all a very important thing. Miners had started the intermediate decline before gold             0.88% and they will bottom first. The panic selling usually lasts for 6-8 days and it starts with breaking an important resistance. In this case it was 1310. We broke it yesterday so it was day 1. Today is day 2.
We might bottom on Friday on the NFP. If not we will bottom middle of next week the latest. Miners could bottom earlier : maybe today as tagging the 200 SMA and closing the gap.

On Tuesday I thought we will have a bounce from the 200 SMA on the weekly chart (1283$) . But banks were attacking gold             so aggressively that we couldn't bounce. I was waiting till Wednesday to see if we have a red candle again or not. And the red candle arrived : no question we are in the panic selling. Most of the bulls will exit their position, bears will call that we are going below 1000 $. It will not happen though.

The bottom could be around the 200 SMA (blue arrow) or at 1240 $. The topping pattern was a descending triangle .
The height of the triangle can be used for setting target prices. In this case the target price is at 1240$.

Tagging or breaking 1240 $ would scare every bull . At that level we would break below the pre-brexit low at 1249$. So all who is holding longs with me have to get ready for more pain down to 1235-40$..
But after that we will have a great Christmas because gold             will rally above 1500 $...

I will be adding at the 200 SMA and at 1240 $.

Notice the indicators are starting the sign the bottom. RSI is turning up, SlowStochastic also. MACD is still ugly though...
Comment: Unfortunately hitting not done yet.
snapshot
Comment: We are tagging the 50 EMA on the hourly chart. This is the first sign that we are bottoming. I still think we will have a lower low at FED speakers today , or Monday maybe Tuesday.
Comment: 50 EMA tag with a new low again.
snapshot
Comment: Mester is talking at 18:45 Berlin time.
Superhawk. I wouldn't buy anything before that.
Comment: 1 hr from now.
at 21:00 George from FED
22:00 Brainard
FED show.
Comment: One of the ugliest weeks ever.
snapshot
Comment: We nearly tagged 1240$ on Friday .
It was the target price counted from the descending triangle.
This is a possible bottom. As I'm watching the weekly charts I steel have a feeling that we will tag 1235$. Will update on twitter soon.
snapshot
Thank you always sharing bro.I think bears are still hungry to crack down the level of 1250. There will be so many datas and rumors in the next days&weeks. So i think 1220 will be the base/setup level.
+1 Reply
Sorry, what does it mean "hitting not done"?
Reply
Hitting Gold Down.
+1 Reply
It seems we will break 1250
+2 Reply
lio chartwatchers
:( I've been all in; hope it break up, not break down
Reply
1240 maybe the next level...
+1 Reply
The typical and soon very familiar "patience" game has started. Breaking above the down trend line, back-testing it, higher-high, back-testing again, new move up, falling below, back-testing...
Then 2 typical things occur; 1) Either go down to about 78 FIB level of the bottom/top of the move OR 2) make a double bottom. Also risk an undercut low on Monday, but I dont find it likely.
Bottom line is that it does not pay to be early position taker.
Reply
Same thoghts. Only one thing that intermediate decline is a bit longer than to bottom today. So Monday or Tuesday more likely.
+1 Reply
val_trader chartwatchers
Thanks Arpi, I'm waiting too to enter long till next week
Reply
Viking83 PRO chartwatchers
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/0reHqymT/
Something like this if it does not want to put in an undercut bottom.
Counting the number of consequetive red days and RSI... I think undercut is less probable and bottom should be in today.
Reply
Arpi... China will be happy to get back, and hey.. cheaper gold! ;)
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO MetalCruisers
I hope we dont get too much margin calls on Monday morning... That would mean a big spike down
+1 Reply
albertwt MetalCruisers
When China back to buy the gold next week, then it would make the price even more expensive ?
correct me if I'm wrong.
Reply
I'm pretty sure you follow Gary Savage and rehash what he is saying
Reply
Thanks Arpi, I am thinking manipulators are not done yet. I see $22 as support for GDX and maybe lower to around $20 if Gold break 1250 and head down to around $1200.
Reply
pbartashevich PRO pbartashevich
Let's see how today ends. Doji on GDX looks nice.
Reply
My numbers show $1243.00 Tuesday or Wednesday buying a little DUST today could net you %9 or %10 when we get there.
Reply
VirtualFax MMadryga
Mind sharing your analysis?
Reply
I think next week with China in the picture, gold should at least stabilize. I see Miners retest the lows next week. Bottom out phase might take couple of weeks.
+1 Reply
My next target 1244. Last pit stop
+1 Reply
NFP numbers sent Gold up but it didn't hold. A weak sign...for now. for how long is the question.
Reply
1243 now, is it time to buy?
Reply
$1210 next 0.5 fib target. I think with this momentum it will get to around $1200 turn.
+2 Reply
albertwt pbartashevich
If that's the case then it is the time to buy physical gold :-)
Reply
Is "one of the ugliest weeks ever" a good or a bad sign? :)
Reply
Good beacuse everyone and his dog is shorting.
+1 Reply
what ever happen i will buy buy and buy from these levels cash gold for 5 years,
+1 Reply
chartwatchers your wonderful analyst. where are you from?
Reply
Gold:
On the daily cycle the first undercut came in at 31/08/2016 and was left translated and then from there the second cycle failed and we are now waiting for the bottom. I think this bottom could be at 1237. On the intermediate cycle this failed at 30/09/2016. The dropped was expected but as we all know we weren't expecting it to be this hard.On the MACD and slow stoch these are way way in the deep.
Where do i think it will go from here:
It can only really go up once we hit the bottom as gold will be starting a new intermediate and new daily cycle within a bull trend, with the new Intermediate cycle lasting the rest of the year.
As written on this post already - it will be a green Christmas.
Reply
1240 (Fib 0.236) got strong support.
Reply
https://pl.vc/nqvhj
Reply
eyeshot eyeshot
I hope you can see the chart. There is no panic selling just a normal thing. Be aware of that two possibilities red or blue. Don't believe everything you read. Don't lose your money!
Reply
FED show :D
Reply
What do you think about miners with bank holiday on Monday?
Reply
+++ Most of the bulls will exit their position, bears will call that we are going below 1000 $. It "will not" happen though. +++

Hello Arpi, Your hangover with bear not yet done. Please look at your plate and trade. Stop looking at others plate. Why you care/hear about bear calls? Because you are scare about them. This statement shows you have no confidence on this trade idea. Since you are not responding to the PM I forced to put it here..! Think What if it goes below $1000? Market is the king not you. Always expect unexpected from gold.

Wish you a strong come back.
Reply
Hi Shaiju. I never said I'm a king.
I'M a simple psychologist. And market is moved by the basic human feelings like hope, fear, greed, happiness etc.
The only thing I can't handle the manipulation. But at the end of the day the human feelings and cycles always win against
manipulations and indicators. So finally USD will drop, gold will soar.
Without China market closed and 25.000 contract dump gold would have never broken the resistance at 1300. Miners were already in the decline when gold was flagging.
It's a bull market. Bears who stole money from the bull should put it in their pocket quietly and run away because the bull will take it back in a blink of a moment. I will not forget to write you in November at 1400 $. ;)
+4 Reply
VRShaiju chartwatchers
Hey Arpi..! I never expect a cool reply from you ;). As a fellow trader I would like to remind you about your focus. I learn an expensive lesson from gold market, which is Expect Unexpected :) It's not clear which November you are talking about. Any way I go with my lesson "Expect unexpected" and I am a huge fan of Zero Sum Game in gold market. Let's play this

Wish you success, green pips and a lot of followers
Reply
I say by 9th Nov 2016 gold will be above 1340$.
Reply
VRShaiju chartwatchers
Why not? I love to see that level again :) However my TP is 1200-1180 for this move.
Diamond on Gold
Reply
what is mean ICL and DCL ?
Reply
Intermediate cycle low / Daily cycle low.
The intermediate cycle is a bigger time frame. The Daily cycle is the smaller. An IC contains more DC.
+3 Reply
it hit monthly support, i just bought at 1244. hope it will retrace to 1307 then see if it will hold that level or not
Reply
saint_athur Calamity
Yes hit monthly support at 1244. I have 1244 and 1241. My concern at 1292 the breakout point.
Reply
Calamity saint_athur
and becareful to 1247 level , i just decided to sell it again and expect to go 1250 , then maybe buyback. but if it break 1247 level , i will certainly sell again. just be patient
Reply
saint_athur Calamity
Thank you. Today support between 1251 or 1246. I just reload the entry. Below 1243 is invalid
Reply
Just cannot see any major move upwards in this market whilst there is a FED 1: desperate to get Clinton in, ie for there jobs 2: with the threat of increasing INT RAtes as early as Nov but more certain Dec..3: High Dollar 4: Possitive Data..just no catalyst at the moment..Only negative to this is maybe WAR or God help us a major Terrorist Attack.... Cheers. Gotta be lower before higher...for me
Reply
What to do you think Arpi?
snapshot
Reply
Ronnee GrowInvest
Really like this chart as a contrarian view to most views...trump seems to keep putting his foot in his mouth! An losing any chance, wether the fed hike now or not in Nov before the election., It has probably given them confidence to do so although not likely I suppose..Gold certainly can go up and not come back from any position from here on in..Now even big banks are saying buy at 1250! , however they and many others have been wrong before.. Back as low as your chart suggests is only about $150. Which is not much from here..many have thought it wouldn't get here and it has...why do bulls and bears fight so much about gold??? Cheers ron
Reply
VRShaiju GrowInvest
Very Good Thought. Appreciated
Diamond on Gold
Reply
so what do you think aboout JNUG ? it was a good time to enter at 10.7$ or a mistake
Reply
Are you joking? If you are able to sit and not touch it till Christmas you will have 500% on it.
snapshot
Reply
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
You were buying with Goldman.
+1 Reply
thank you so much! (:
it is just because u said we can can get even lower.. and even with a rate hike at the end of the year you think gold would still go up?
ok ,so i will add more on monday
Reply
They haven't hiked yet. Why are you so sure they will in December?
They promised 4 this year . It's October and we are 0.
They should get very busy with hiking.
Reply
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
I think if Clinton wins they will explain why not hiking in December.
If Trump wins they will hike in December before Yellen&Co gets fired.
Reply
jolu chartwatchers
I can't be sure, but i believe that with all the buzz going on with rare hiking,as many inside the FED comity think and repeated it should go up, it will happen after the election and then i dont know if gold would continue hiking ..
Do you think we should sell ERX as 4h and 1 day charts seemed to be overbought on indicators,and instead buy JNUG ? I dont know where we are staying in the cycle in ERX .
(I d'ont really know how to calculate cycles ,if you have any documentation about it I would appreciate it very much!...)
Thank you again for all ,you are the best!
Reply
I'm watching ERX very closely. I think it has to break out at least to get everyone on board.
Reply
What is your view on a possible additional (maybe shorter) daily cycle before the final ICL in gold and miners? Meaning a bounce up to the 1290-95 area and than bottoming around 1200-1225 (as prices regarding gold).
Reply
We reached the target price counted from the pattern. If we are back to the bottom of the triangle (1295-1300) we are going to break higher.
Reply
epalazzo chartwatchers
Thanks for your reply.
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
France
Italia
Brasil
Россия