Breaking down 1310 on Tuesday we entered into the panic selling stage. Panic selling is always a last stage of an intermediate cycle. Usually this is the time when you can short a bull market, because the decline is steep. Unfortunately I missed it.
Timewise it's too early to enter into the intermediate decline on week 18 but it happened.
So instead of guessing why did it happen - elections, bank manipulation etc - I would like to set the possible targets where gold could bottom.
First of all a very important thing. Miners had started the intermediate decline before gold 0.88% and they will bottom first. The panic selling usually lasts for 6-8 days and it starts with breaking an important resistance. In this case it was 1310. We broke it yesterday so it was day 1. Today is day 2.
We might bottom on Friday on the NFP. If not we will bottom middle of next week the latest. Miners could bottom earlier : maybe today as tagging the 200 and closing the gap.
On Tuesday I thought we will have a bounce from the 200 on the weekly chart (1283$) . But banks were attacking gold so aggressively that we couldn't bounce. I was waiting till Wednesday to see if we have a red candle again or not. And the red candle arrived : no question we are in the panic selling. Most of the bulls will exit their position, bears will call that we are going below 1000 $. It will not happen though.
The bottom could be around the 200 (blue arrow) or at 1240 $. The topping pattern was a .
The height of the triangle can be used for setting target prices. In this case the target price is at 1240$.
Tagging or breaking 1240 $ would scare every bull . At that level we would break below the pre-brexit low at 1249$. So all who is holding longs with me have to get ready for more pain down to 1235-40$..
But after that we will have a great Christmas because gold will rally above 1500 $...
I will be adding at the 200 and at 1240 $.
Notice the indicators are starting the sign the bottom. is turning up, SlowStochastic also. is still ugly though...
Superhawk. I wouldn't buy anything before that.
at 21:00 George from FED
It was the target price counted from the descending triangle.
This is a possible bottom. As I'm watching the weekly charts I steel have a feeling that we will tag 1235$. Will update on twitter soon.
Do you think we should sell ERX as 4h and 1 day charts seemed to be overbought on indicators,and instead buy JNUG ? I dont know where we are staying in the cycle in ERX .
(I d'ont really know how to calculate cycles ,if you have any documentation about it I would appreciate it very much!...)
Thank you again for all ,you are the best!