Breaking down 1310 on Tuesday we entered into the panic selling stage. Panic selling is always a last stage of an intermediate cycle. Usually this is the time when you can short a market, because the decline is steep. Unfortunately I missed it.
Timewise it's too early to enter into the intermediate decline on week 18 but it happened.
So instead of guessing why did it happen - elections, bank manipulation etc - I would like to set the possible targets where gold could bottom.
First of all a very important thing. Miners had started the intermediate decline before gold 0.88% and they will bottom first. The panic selling usually lasts for 6-8 days and it starts with breaking an important resistance. In this case it was 1310. We broke it yesterday so it was day 1. Today is day 2.
We might bottom on Friday on the NFP. If not we will bottom middle of next week the latest. Miners could bottom earlier : maybe today as tagging the 200 and closing the gap.
On Tuesday I thought we will have a bounce from the 200 on the weekly chart (1283$) . But banks were attacking gold so aggressively that we couldn't bounce. I was waiting till Wednesday to see if we have a red candle again or not. And the red candle arrived : no question we are in the panic selling. Most of the bulls will exit their position, bears will call that we are going below 1000 $. It will not happen though.
The bottom could be around the 200 (blue arrow) or at 1240 $. The topping pattern was a .
The height of the triangle can be used for setting target prices. In this case the target price is at 1240$.
Tagging or breaking 1240 $ would scare every . At that level we would break below the pre-brexit low at 1249$. So all who is holding longs with me have to get ready for more pain down to 1235-40$..
But after that we will have a great Christmas because gold will rally above 1500 $...
I will be adding at the 200 and at 1240 $.
Notice the indicators are starting the sign the bottom. is turning up, SlowStochastic also. is still ugly though...
Superhawk. I wouldn't buy anything before that.
at 21:00 George from FED
It was the target price counted from the descending triangle.
This is a possible bottom. As I'm watching the weekly charts I steel have a feeling that we will tag 1235$. Will update on twitter soon.
Then 2 typical things occur; 1) Either go down to about 78 FIB level of the bottom/top of the move OR 2) make a double bottom. Also risk an undercut low on Monday, but I dont find it likely.
Bottom line is that it does not pay to be early position taker.
On the daily cycle the first undercut came in at 31/08/2016 and was left translated and then from there the second cycle failed and we are now waiting for the bottom. I think this bottom could be at 1237. On the intermediate cycle this failed at 30/09/2016. The dropped was expected but as we all know we weren't expecting it to be this hard.On the MACD and slow stoch these are way way in the deep.
Where do i think it will go from here:
It can only really go up once we hit the bottom as gold will be starting a new intermediate and new daily cycle within a bull trend, with the new Intermediate cycle lasting the rest of the year.
As written on this post already - it will be a green Christmas.
Hello Arpi, Your hangover with bear not yet done. Please look at your plate and trade. Stop looking at others plate. Why you care/hear about bear calls? Because you are scare about them. This statement shows you have no confidence on this trade idea. Since you are not responding to the PM I forced to put it here..! Think What if it goes below $1000? Market is the king not you. Always expect unexpected from gold.
Wish you a strong come back.
I'M a simple psychologist. And market is moved by the basic human feelings like hope, fear, greed, happiness etc.
The only thing I can't handle the manipulation. But at the end of the day the human feelings and cycles always win against
manipulations and indicators. So finally USD will drop, gold will soar.
Without China market closed and 25.000 contract dump gold would have never broken the resistance at 1300. Miners were already in the decline when gold was flagging.
It's a bull market. Bears who stole money from the bull should put it in their pocket quietly and run away because the bull will take it back in a blink of a moment. I will not forget to write you in November at 1400 $. ;)
Wish you success, green pips and a lot of followers
Do you think we should sell ERX as 4h and 1 day charts seemed to be overbought on indicators,and instead buy JNUG ? I dont know where we are staying in the cycle in ERX .
(I d'ont really know how to calculate cycles ,if you have any documentation about it I would appreciate it very much!...)
Thank you again for all ,you are the best!