chartwatchers
Long

GOLD - Panic selling

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
4115 61 56
Posting the 2 days earlier private idea. The newest gold             updates you can find on my twitter account as a private idea link.
Breaking down 1310 on Tuesday we entered into the panic selling stage. Panic selling is always a last stage of an intermediate cycle. Usually this is the time when you can short a bull market, because the decline is steep. Unfortunately I missed it.
Timewise it's too early to enter into the intermediate decline on week 18 but it happened.
So instead of guessing why did it happen - elections, bank manipulation etc - I would like to set the possible targets where gold             could bottom.

First of all a very important thing. Miners had started the intermediate decline before gold             0.88% and they will bottom first. The panic selling usually lasts for 6-8 days and it starts with breaking an important resistance. In this case it was 1310. We broke it yesterday so it was day 1. Today is day 2.
We might bottom on Friday on the NFP. If not we will bottom middle of next week the latest. Miners could bottom earlier : maybe today as tagging the 200 SMA and closing the gap.

On Tuesday I thought we will have a bounce from the 200 SMA on the weekly chart (1283$) . But banks were attacking gold             so aggressively that we couldn't bounce. I was waiting till Wednesday to see if we have a red candle again or not. And the red candle arrived : no question we are in the panic selling. Most of the bulls will exit their position, bears will call that we are going below 1000 $. It will not happen though.

The bottom could be around the 200 SMA (blue arrow) or at 1240 $. The topping pattern was a descending triangle .
The height of the triangle can be used for setting target prices. In this case the target price is at 1240$.

Tagging or breaking 1240 $ would scare every bull . At that level we would break below the pre-brexit low at 1249$. So all who is holding longs with me have to get ready for more pain down to 1235-40$..
But after that we will have a great Christmas because gold             will rally above 1500 $...

I will be adding at the 200 SMA and at 1240 $.

Notice the indicators are starting the sign the bottom. RSI is turning up, SlowStochastic also. MACD is still ugly though...
Comment: Unfortunately hitting not done yet.
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Comment: We are tagging the 50 EMA on the hourly chart. This is the first sign that we are bottoming. I still think we will have a lower low at FED speakers today , or Monday maybe Tuesday.
Comment: 50 EMA tag with a new low again.
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Comment: Mester is talking at 18:45 Berlin time.
Superhawk. I wouldn't buy anything before that.
Comment: 1 hr from now.
at 21:00 George from FED
22:00 Brainard
FED show.
Comment: One of the ugliest weeks ever.
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Comment: We nearly tagged 1240$ on Friday .
It was the target price counted from the descending triangle.
This is a possible bottom. As I'm watching the weekly charts I steel have a feeling that we will tag 1235$. Will update on twitter soon.
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What is your view on a possible additional (maybe shorter) daily cycle before the final ICL in gold and miners? Meaning a bounce up to the 1290-95 area and than bottoming around 1200-1225 (as prices regarding gold).
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We reached the target price counted from the pattern. If we are back to the bottom of the triangle (1295-1300) we are going to break higher.
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epalazzo chartwatchers
Thanks for your reply.
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thank you so much! (:
it is just because u said we can can get even lower.. and even with a rate hike at the end of the year you think gold would still go up?
ok ,so i will add more on monday
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They haven't hiked yet. Why are you so sure they will in December?
They promised 4 this year . It's October and we are 0.
They should get very busy with hiking.
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chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
I think if Clinton wins they will explain why not hiking in December.
If Trump wins they will hike in December before Yellen&Co gets fired.
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jolu chartwatchers
I can't be sure, but i believe that with all the buzz going on with rare hiking,as many inside the FED comity think and repeated it should go up, it will happen after the election and then i dont know if gold would continue hiking ..
Do you think we should sell ERX as 4h and 1 day charts seemed to be overbought on indicators,and instead buy JNUG ? I dont know where we are staying in the cycle in ERX .
(I d'ont really know how to calculate cycles ,if you have any documentation about it I would appreciate it very much!...)
Thank you again for all ,you are the best!
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I'm watching ERX very closely. I think it has to break out at least to get everyone on board.
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so what do you think aboout JNUG ? it was a good time to enter at 10.7$ or a mistake
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Are you joking? If you are able to sit and not touch it till Christmas you will have 500% on it.
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