chartwatchers
Long

LABU - 200 EMA is support now

AMEX:XBI   SPDR S&P BIOTECH ETF
2710 61 40
4 months ago
Last week we haven't just broken the 200 EMA in XBI             but we were able to hold the gains.
This is really going to fasten up now. The 200 EMA is a support now and at the time S&P             is printing some kind of pullback in the future - maybe after FED's rate hike next Wednesday - XBI             will just test back the 200 EMA.
In the next 2 weeks I will be adding to my stock trade positions if we test back the 200 EMA. I think a new bull market is starting here which will run for years with terrible gains.

Gaps will be filled during the run just 2 days ago. These filled gaps are points to add to one's positions.
I will be charting XBI             as LABU             is a 3x ETF and not good for charting but most of the time I will be trading LABU             .

These are just great times. People will talk about the 2016-2019 bull markets even in 2040.
Don't ruin it. Ride it.


4 months ago
Comment: 200 EMA 3x support now.
4 months ago
Comment: One can always buy LABU at the 200 EMA.
4x support today.
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4 months ago
Comment: Corrected:
100 EMA at LABU, 200 EMA at XBI is the support
4 months ago
Trade closed manually
3 months ago
Comment: Few ppl asked why did I closed and when will I enter the LABU trade.
You can't sit in a 3x ETF for months. You have to catch the market pulse : buy the bottom and sell the top.
This is exactly what we did. We exited near the top at 44.75. ( You can check the real time trade at the STOCK TRADE 1 post) And now we are waiting for our entry point . I didn't want to let my money sit in the consolidation for weeks. I want my money to work in successful trades.
So the LABU buy is coming soon. My finger on the launch button of STOCK TRADE 2.
But not today.
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mumuyang2
4 months ago
hey man, nice analysis! I looked at the day-chart and week-chart and got the same conclusion. Based on the week-chart, we still have some room to go, then a pull back may happen, but I don't think it will be a big pull back. As you mentioned, a test back 200EMA or 200MA is highly possible. Thanks for your post! Wish you good money!
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bertcoin PRO
4 months ago
I hope I'm one of those guys in 2-3 years thanks to you turning me on to LABU.
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investment6300 bertcoin
4 months ago
Yip!!
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Thanks you Arpi for your greaat analysis. By the way IBB did not take out 200EMA yet but I guess it will happen next couple of days. That would additionally confirm the rally and speed it up. We have Q2 results Gilead on Monday before FOMC, and after FOMC Amgen (July 27) and Bristol-Myers Squibb (July 28) reporting this week. They will setup the tone for rally. Guys on CNBC were very positive about Amgen.
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Parabolica pbartashevich
4 months ago
Thanks!
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suli
4 months ago
Hi what do you think of trading the IBB. Thanks for a eventual answer
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J_Pixel
4 months ago
Thank you for the idea Arpi. But why don't you think LABU won't reverse at the 40-ish level, like it used to do several times before? Is it only beacause of 100EMA had been broken?
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investment6300
4 months ago
Once again thanks for your detail and Idea confirmations. This leg up you were assured it was continuing and this pull back we just had that did not reverse (I thought could be with double top and others)was not a concern for you, when I looked at the dubble top. What assured you about it continuing Apri. Was it that MACD did not close and below 0 weekly, no crossover on daily , while RSI was crossing 70 just?
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Quant
4 months ago
thanks for sharing your work always good to look through another set of kens for color and perspective. The decline in bio's have been painful for bears. Prudent bulls would be wise to wait for the tape to tell them when to act. Trade well. Have a good and profitable day.
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Quant
4 months ago
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Quant Quant
4 months ago
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mumuyang2
4 months ago
I saw a price and RSI divergence, but I'm not sure is this div always true? Hope you can share some views CW, thanks
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chartwatchers PRO mumuyang2
4 months ago
XBI above the 200 EMA is bulish to me.
As I'm watching S&P (-0,3%) LABU should be in -1%.
It's in + 0,6%. Strong.
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mumuyang2 chartwatchers
4 months ago
thanks CW, XBI is pretty strong in the market time today. But the day-chart printed a hanging man, and the post-hour plunges. Hope we can recover tomorrow
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traderzaius chartwatchers
4 months ago
I agree. Any dips under 200 EMA will get bought hard until the market goes into its DCL.
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mumuyang2
4 months ago
you are correct again man! Good work!
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Just for fun. Look what happened to GILD (Gilead) after earnings. Check out volume.
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toothless pbartashevich
4 months ago
no kidding, huh? and then we immediately recovered. another testament to the bull rally. ::thumbsup::
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Arpi, you mean 100EMA. Right?
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chartwatchers PRO pbartashevich
4 months ago
yes at LABU 100 EMA, XBI 200 EMA
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jinyuji210 chartwatchers
4 months ago
I see MACD divergence in 1HOUR AND 4HOUR chart. how do you think about it?
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chartwatchers PRO jinyuji210
4 months ago
Use the indicators only on XBI chart
LABU is 3x etf indicators are useless only EMAs are working more or less
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jinyuji210 chartwatchers
4 months ago
Got it. Thanks.
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JonathanRobinson
4 months ago
I have analyzed every xbi 200 sma cross up. It never holds the first time.
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JonathanRobinson JonathanRobinson
4 months ago
I agree with rest though. I just think we get a 236 or 382 retrace once first top is in.
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JonathanRobinson JonathanRobinson
4 months ago
Last comment. This last bottom looks like 2009 second bottom. If so, we should chop higher around IBB W top and then break up in 1-2 minths.
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the_roggy
4 months ago
I wonder... The day after brexit I was (very) angry with myself that I didn't put a SL on my XAUUSD... so I promised myself I'd always put a SL in the future to evade dramatic losses "overnight".

So with the FOMC meeting coming close... I'd like to put/change my current SL on my LABU. I was thinking at 35$ (a bit below the LABU 200 EMA/XBI 100 EMA). Would that be a logical move/SL to protect my current profits? Or is it more logical to put it somewhere else?
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dmz PRO
4 months ago
Nice Job Arpi, you were spot on the whole time with this trade. Do you think we'll re-test the 100 EMA on labu? Would really like to add to my position, but don't want to chase here.
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S&P bearish engulfing candle on increased volume. No reaction to rate hike. I think we are going to have a correction in stocks. Need to break that consolidation downward to confirm. Biotech looks strong but if stocks correct we may have a small pullback.
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oilyprata
4 months ago
Amazingly strong! thanks for sharing Arpi :) You are always spot on!
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oilyprata
4 months ago
the volume of buys is also still pretty high!
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the_roggy
4 months ago
Great rally already today :-)... a pity I took profit with half position of LABU at 40$ :-)... but crystal balls are quite uncommon in these parts. I wonder if a correction is coming now... as the RSI is now overbought both in daily and hourly charts... would love to add some more to the position, but don't think now is the time?
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This could be a reversal day with shooting star. We have 30 minutes left if it will stay like this and open down tomorrow I think that will be a cycle high.

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pbartashevich PRO pbartashevich
4 months ago
Well, by the end of the day it doesn't look as bad as it was.
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Looks like we going to have a nice apportunity to add at $59 in XBI. Here are my thoughts:
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toothless
4 months ago
Anyone else notice the huge surge in buying at the last hour of XBI trading today? I tried to look up what might have caused it - haven't found anything. One of the highest volume buys for XBI - second highest behind pre-Brexit - if I'm not mistaken. Chartwatchers, thoughts on the TP for LABU, or do you think we will begin cycling down again? Mahalos!
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Hks6996 toothless
4 months ago
Biogen is a top 10 holding in SPSIBI, the underlying index that LABU is targeting to 3X the performance against (Biogen is a top holdings in most biotech funds) In the last hour of the day it was announced that Biogen is a takeover interest for Merck and Allergan (those were named, there may be others). Informal and preliminary talks have started, does not mean it will end in a buy out, but Biogen's stock was up over 9%.

Earnings for biotech/pharma is almost over which may put downward pressure on LABU in the short term... However if mergers, and buyouts in the biotech space is starting up again, then could continue the bull run we have experienced over the past month...

Thoughts???
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toothless Hks6996
4 months ago
Really appreciate the info, thank you! I would have to defer to chartwatchers to interpret, thanks!
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pbartashevich PRO Hks6996
4 months ago
It wasn't announcement. It was leaked rumor XBI was falling hard that day and only that rumor came from nowhere stopped it. Fishy. Non of the companies confirmed or commented this.
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I am thinking about LABD. Should we try to still some money from this bull?
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toothless pbartashevich
4 months ago
I personally think that would be pretty risky. Your timing would have to be perfect, as we may just correct back to XBI 200 EMA and that's it. I'm gonna wait for the pullback and buy LABU again if the 200 EMA holds.
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Dymsha
4 months ago
Thank you, Arpad. I've made money here
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Notyour
4 months ago
Hi arpi. Why closed?
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newatthis PRO
4 months ago
Thanks for this. I got out way too early but still made some money.
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MC2016 PRO
3 months ago
Hi Arpi, would be interested in your latest analysis of XBI/LABU. You've been very bullish in the past about the longer term prospects for biotech. Do you remain so? And wondering why you closed your trade when you did? thanks, MC
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bertcoin PRO
3 months ago
We've had a nice little pullback and a bullish harami pattern with some confirmation just above the convergence of the EMA's and fibs. Curious if you are still watching LABU, near a re-entry point, or think it may wander back down to test the trend line around the initial gap that will not be filled?
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bertcoin PRO
3 months ago
@Bearbud: "Thanks Bertcoin. Do you know why he closed the LABU trade? He originally said it was going to take off."

Nope. It did take off and made people a lot of money. I'm going to assume it is smart cycle management. Arpi keeps track of a "cycle for every vehicle," something I aspire to do. The run (up cycle) was long in the tooth just looking at a daily chart, so should correct, then continue the bull run when it's the right time. For long term investors, he got them into bio-techs at the right time.
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chartwatchers PRO bertcoin
3 months ago
I closed because I dont want to be in a 3x ETF when a pullback comes. You can easily give back all of your gains. It's not for long term holding.

+1 Reply
Bearbud chartwatchers
3 months ago
Thank you for the update and your patience.
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Thank you for update Arpi. I will follow you on this one. I think reentry price is XBI at around 59 but will wait for your post.
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archie123
3 months ago
Thanks for the update and explanation of your decision - helpful.
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the_roggy
3 months ago
Thanks for the update!
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traderzaius
3 months ago
I already bought back in. Surprises are always to the upside. It's easier to take a DCL than to miss out on a runaway train. With these rigged markets, there is almost a 75% chance that a big move will come without notice and LABU always gaps premarket in a big move.
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ArtFly
2 months ago
Arpi, could you comment LABU in this S@P 500 situation? Thank you
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bertcoin PRO
2 months ago
Arpi - While you're watching your Oil go to light speed - I've done a reasonably good job of selling off some LABU on the highs and picking it up on the cycle lows. Learned from your comments! My quick question here is on this latest cycle, do you think we are we going to hold the DCL trend line (red) or the 200EMA for XBI, and why (for our learning!)? Thanks again - LABU has been my BIGGEST winner of the summer.
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bertcoin PRO
2 months ago
Picture to go with previous post:
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bertcoin PRO bertcoin
2 months ago
Ignore me here. Re-posted question on Stock Trade 2 where it belongs.
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