BTCUSD: A shot in the dark for the bigger picture

KRAKEN:BTCEUR   Bitcoin / Euro
Ever since the beginning beginning of 2017 I've kept records of my "guesstimates" for BTC/USD. And even while such long term projections are wildly speculative to say the least, I've found that they are: a) great for keeping the overall perspective and b) can be surprisingly accurate. For the latter reference, check my projection of the long term bear market published in Q1, 2018:
Moving forward from the current outlook, I find it plausible that the base-mode for our next long term uptrend is found around the $6000 mark (note the light-blue box on the chart). Using that trading range, it is possible for us to make an educated guess about the targets of the uptrend in both time and price. However, because our projected targets for the upside is dependent on the lows of this current bear-trend, I have made more than one projections of how the trend might evolve (purple, green, blue colors on the chart).

The fundamental landscape seems to support this thesis as the regulatory framework for bitcoin and cryptocurrency seems to be opening up. Evidently, this results in more and more institutions entering the field. Many traders seem to be very caught up with this particular narrative and while it may be an important driver for positive price development, I do not think the transition will happen quite as fast as many are expecting. Lastly, there are some important fundamental events to keep an eye on (most important labeled on the chart) but since crypto has a tendency to stir the fundamental picture heavily up, we can expect many more to pop-up.

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