The TRUE way the BTC market works and how to be more successful
NOTE: most important point is C.) a-lot of other stuff may or may not be trivial stuff you personally know so if nothing else read C.)
So I figured I would take the time to educate the few people that may see and read this. Because many, many people need it. Almost every person out there trading BTC has some theory and conspiracy that they believe and actually make decisions based on with zero clue what they are talking about.
FACT 1.) The price is almost 100% dictated by the RSI. Im not gonna get deep into this because their are infinite RSI's not that you need to watch them all but to truly learn whats going on and where the price is going you have to have an extremely high IQ, PATIENCE and love math and problem solving.
No single time frame will tell you much, and regardless of what a lot of people claim all time frames are important and all fit together like a puzzle. If you look at just the 1 minute rsi you will never inow whats going on because it can go up or down while between 70 and 30 endlessly but even worse is the fact that when it hits 70 or 30 it tells you nothing because the lower the timeframe is the more forgiving the formula is in terms of allowing it to go over or under for periods of time.
I think of it like this, every time frame that goes over or under is given penalty points based on the timeframe and the amount it is over or under. 1min timeframe is almost pointless but the 3min, then 5, then 15, etc etc will all become over or under the longer that the price keeps going up. So as those timeframes join in their points get added to the penalty total. Once the penalty total gets to a certain point its done, the bots controlling everything will slam the price and rsi down or up out of the penalty zone.
THE TRUTH ABOUT THE SHORT/LONG "SQUEEZE"
These "SQUEEZES" have several reasons for happening.
A.) it shortens the time to lower or raise the longer time frames RSI considerably. These are the timeframes that cause days to months of sideways boringness (depending on the time frame, the larger it is the longer it takes to reset it obviously). Its literally what the BEAR season is. It is the 7 day time frame finally getting so high that a huge number of large up and downs need to happen to quicken the time to bring the rsi from 91 down to 30 which is when the bear market ends and it still takes months and months of sideways even after all the $1000-$5000 swings from Jan-May 2018.
Note: A $200-$300 squeeze can also reset the shorter timeframe like the hour from 90 rsi to 50 instantly thus allowing the rally to continue
B.) A lot of bad traders have high leverage positions and positions with no stops which make it free money for the whales to take
C.) ***MOST IMPORTANT REASON***
If you ever thought about it and how you would manipulate the market if u had hundreds of millions of dollars you would quickly realize that you cant manipulate the market from BITMEX like 99% of people seem to believe happens. If you buy hundreds of millions of contracts on BITMEX your gonna be the one raising the price and be paying more and more all the way up. But even worse is when you want to unload the long your gonna cause the price to drop more and more. Getting rid of your entire position in profit would be difficult enough and you certainly couldn't load a short on top of that.
So how does it really work? (I used todays "short squeeze before the plunge as the example in the chart"
Note: i used the 1 hour chart, now as you go down in time frames the amount the rsi is over the 70% mark obviously is higher and higher and on the 2 hour time frame it hits exactly 70%.
Ok so what really happens is the whales program their bots buy bitcoin on the mark exchanges to a set goal today being $9100 and they program their bitmex bots to set limit orders of 500,000 - 5,000,000 to short from $9050 - $9100 which is why you'll see short orders go from 3 million quickly to a few hundred thousand as you watch endless people market buy orders at it and suddenly soon as it gets low 300,000 or less it will go right up to 1-5mil and seconds later sell down to a few hundred thousand and new orders replenish over and over. So its not obvious to you that your selling tens of millions to a wall.
Once their shorts are completely filled on bitmex they sell blocks of btc that they just bough on the exchanges to raise the price to cause the price to drop back down and keep doing that down to whatever price they want. Then people begin panic selling and the rsi gets to low on a bunch of timeframes like it did at $7900 and the whales bots unload whatever portion of those shorts they just got that is needed to push the price up to where the rsi is at 30.
So in the end everyone threw hundreds of millions of shorts at them, paid the fees for them and paid them a portion of fees and then they dropped the price $1000 to be left holding a huge winning position.
Why did they do this today? Simple the weekly rsi is way too high to continue a bull run for 2 years lol its at like 80. They will now hold these shorts for however long it takes to reset the weekly rsi to an acceptable number. What number who knows, anything under 70 but i imagine 40-55. They will get paid funding the entire time by all the saps that hold longs this next few weeks. The price will go up and down as usual as they liquidate new shorters but it will be trending down weekly. Until some point when the RSI on weekly chart is low enough which is when they will do what they did today in reverse. (Sell on exchanges to force price down on bitmex where they have limit orders you throw money at so they close their shorts from $9100 and open longs to go up). This will likely happen several times to close all the shorts they have accumulated over the last month and open all new long positions.
But the point is until YOU get smart enough to not throw orders hopelessly whn you should know better this will keep happening. You literally don't even have to look at the rsi graphs to know when you should be closing not opening. When that point comes that we hit a wall and bounce $50-$100 like $9020-$9080 to $9020 you should know you likely just where part of feeding orders to the people that are about to make the market go the other way $1000+
Always have a minimum 2 stops setup for every position. The first thing i do even before opening my position sometimes is set 2 generic JUST IN CASE stops at $40 away from the liquidation price. So if its a long with a liquid at $8200 then i will setup a stop based on mark price at $8240 and a stop based on last price at $8240. Most always ill setup a different stop way closer to my open soon after but i will change my stoo and strategy many times. Those 2 safety stops never have reason to change and will still be there even if i screw up by removing my real stop that i set and the new stop i set somehow dosent get accepted and i dont notice or i forget to set the new one because something big happens after i cancel the first ine etc.
The reason for 2 stops is simple. Bitmex liquidates you based on the mark price so if the price on bitstamp goes to $8200 and bitmex price is $8400 and you only had a stop set at $8240 based on last BITMEX price then you just got liquidated at $8400 and paid Bitmex a ton of money. For the record the higher your leverage the more important a stop is. At 50x when you get liquidated your position sells for enough to where you would still get half your money back but Bitmex just takes it instead.
So why set a stop based on Last when the liquidation is based on the mark price? Because of the opposite. Bitmex price hits $8200 and mark price is at $8400 and you have one stop at $8240 based on mark price. By time the mark price hits $8240 bitmex price is at $8040 so your stop triggers and sells at $8040 and your money just all goes into liquidation anyhow because you sold for below the liquidation price.
So that is why there should always be 2 emergency stops. Most people just use a stop based on last which is fine as long as your stop is always far away from your liquidation i mean $200+ away minimum. But if its not you should always have a default safety mark stop at +-$40 of liquid and you can move your last price stop wherever you want based on where u would want it to stop.
So I figured I would take the time to educate the few people that may see and read this. Because many, many people need it. Almost every person out there trading BTC has some theory and conspiracy that they believe and actually make decisions based on with zero clue what they are talking about.
FACT 1.) The price is almost 100% dictated by the RSI. Im not gonna get deep into this because their are infinite RSI's not that you need to watch them all but to truly learn whats going on and where the price is going you have to have an extremely high IQ, PATIENCE and love math and problem solving.
No single time frame will tell you much, and regardless of what a lot of people claim all time frames are important and all fit together like a puzzle. If you look at just the 1 minute rsi you will never inow whats going on because it can go up or down while between 70 and 30 endlessly but even worse is the fact that when it hits 70 or 30 it tells you nothing because the lower the timeframe is the more forgiving the formula is in terms of allowing it to go over or under for periods of time.
I think of it like this, every time frame that goes over or under is given penalty points based on the timeframe and the amount it is over or under. 1min timeframe is almost pointless but the 3min, then 5, then 15, etc etc will all become over or under the longer that the price keeps going up. So as those timeframes join in their points get added to the penalty total. Once the penalty total gets to a certain point its done, the bots controlling everything will slam the price and rsi down or up out of the penalty zone.
THE TRUTH ABOUT THE SHORT/LONG "SQUEEZE"
These "SQUEEZES" have several reasons for happening.
A.) it shortens the time to lower or raise the longer time frames RSI considerably. These are the timeframes that cause days to months of sideways boringness (depending on the time frame, the larger it is the longer it takes to reset it obviously). Its literally what the BEAR season is. It is the 7 day time frame finally getting so high that a huge number of large up and downs need to happen to quicken the time to bring the rsi from 91 down to 30 which is when the bear market ends and it still takes months and months of sideways even after all the $1000-$5000 swings from Jan-May 2018.
Note: A $200-$300 squeeze can also reset the shorter timeframe like the hour from 90 rsi to 50 instantly thus allowing the rally to continue
B.) A lot of bad traders have high leverage positions and positions with no stops which make it free money for the whales to take
C.) ***MOST IMPORTANT REASON***
If you ever thought about it and how you would manipulate the market if u had hundreds of millions of dollars you would quickly realize that you cant manipulate the market from BITMEX like 99% of people seem to believe happens. If you buy hundreds of millions of contracts on BITMEX your gonna be the one raising the price and be paying more and more all the way up. But even worse is when you want to unload the long your gonna cause the price to drop more and more. Getting rid of your entire position in profit would be difficult enough and you certainly couldn't load a short on top of that.
So how does it really work? (I used todays "short squeeze before the plunge as the example in the chart"
Note: i used the 1 hour chart, now as you go down in time frames the amount the rsi is over the 70% mark obviously is higher and higher and on the 2 hour time frame it hits exactly 70%.
Ok so what really happens is the whales program their bots buy bitcoin on the mark exchanges to a set goal today being $9100 and they program their bitmex bots to set limit orders of 500,000 - 5,000,000 to short from $9050 - $9100 which is why you'll see short orders go from 3 million quickly to a few hundred thousand as you watch endless people market buy orders at it and suddenly soon as it gets low 300,000 or less it will go right up to 1-5mil and seconds later sell down to a few hundred thousand and new orders replenish over and over. So its not obvious to you that your selling tens of millions to a wall.
Once their shorts are completely filled on bitmex they sell blocks of btc that they just bough on the exchanges to raise the price to cause the price to drop back down and keep doing that down to whatever price they want. Then people begin panic selling and the rsi gets to low on a bunch of timeframes like it did at $7900 and the whales bots unload whatever portion of those shorts they just got that is needed to push the price up to where the rsi is at 30.
So in the end everyone threw hundreds of millions of shorts at them, paid the fees for them and paid them a portion of fees and then they dropped the price $1000 to be left holding a huge winning position.
Why did they do this today? Simple the weekly rsi is way too high to continue a bull run for 2 years lol its at like 80. They will now hold these shorts for however long it takes to reset the weekly rsi to an acceptable number. What number who knows, anything under 70 but i imagine 40-55. They will get paid funding the entire time by all the saps that hold longs this next few weeks. The price will go up and down as usual as they liquidate new shorters but it will be trending down weekly. Until some point when the RSI on weekly chart is low enough which is when they will do what they did today in reverse. (Sell on exchanges to force price down on bitmex where they have limit orders you throw money at so they close their shorts from $9100 and open longs to go up). This will likely happen several times to close all the shorts they have accumulated over the last month and open all new long positions.
But the point is until YOU get smart enough to not throw orders hopelessly whn you should know better this will keep happening. You literally don't even have to look at the rsi graphs to know when you should be closing not opening. When that point comes that we hit a wall and bounce $50-$100 like $9020-$9080 to $9020 you should know you likely just where part of feeding orders to the people that are about to make the market go the other way $1000+
Always have a minimum 2 stops setup for every position. The first thing i do even before opening my position sometimes is set 2 generic JUST IN CASE stops at $40 away from the liquidation price. So if its a long with a liquid at $8200 then i will setup a stop based on mark price at $8240 and a stop based on last price at $8240. Most always ill setup a different stop way closer to my open soon after but i will change my stoo and strategy many times. Those 2 safety stops never have reason to change and will still be there even if i screw up by removing my real stop that i set and the new stop i set somehow dosent get accepted and i dont notice or i forget to set the new one because something big happens after i cancel the first ine etc.
The reason for 2 stops is simple. Bitmex liquidates you based on the mark price so if the price on bitstamp goes to $8200 and bitmex price is $8400 and you only had a stop set at $8240 based on last BITMEX price then you just got liquidated at $8400 and paid Bitmex a ton of money. For the record the higher your leverage the more important a stop is. At 50x when you get liquidated your position sells for enough to where you would still get half your money back but Bitmex just takes it instead.
So why set a stop based on Last when the liquidation is based on the mark price? Because of the opposite. Bitmex price hits $8200 and mark price is at $8400 and you have one stop at $8240 based on mark price. By time the mark price hits $8240 bitmex price is at $8040 so your stop triggers and sells at $8040 and your money just all goes into liquidation anyhow because you sold for below the liquidation price.
So that is why there should always be 2 emergency stops. Most people just use a stop based on last which is fine as long as your stop is always far away from your liquidation i mean $200+ away minimum. But if its not you should always have a default safety mark stop at +-$40 of liquid and you can move your last price stop wherever you want based on where u would want it to stop.
Comment:
Big gain short opportunity coming VERY SOON
Comment:
Quick update:
If you look at the 1 hour RSI you can see that it is nearing the overbought quickly every since the droo. Which dint surprise me because as I assumed they are likely looking to drio BTC more before the weekly candle closes on Sunday night to get the rsi down on weekly as much as possible.
As always the whales algorithms will mess you up as much as possible so dont ever believe you have the system figured out. My working theory is that their are 4 separate algorithms running that randomly switch. During one of them I can predict the markets every move but its hard to tell when its randomly changed and things becomes completely diff once it does.
But i can tell you what to watch for and what to do if it happens. Your hope is that the 1 hour rsi gets pumped all the way to 70 and that the drop dont happen randomly before then. If you see 1 hour rsi near 70 then start watching the 5min rsi and 1min. When the hour, 5min and 1min are all setup to 70 almost then you know 100% a drop has to happen and can safely short. But check 15 and 30min just for good meassure that they are up also.
You can honestly short now and 95% certainly make money. They could play games and take hourly sideways for a day while creeping price up but long as you used decent leverage 10x or lower your safe but if you want a better score you can wait and hope what i said happens and i think it will. I still suggest decent leverage 20x max.
So assuming the 1 hour and lower rsi are all converged to very close to 70, ine of 2 things will happen.
1.) least likely the price will just start dropping now until all the rsis are under 30 and then bounce back up a bit to make them 30.
2.) more likely once they are all at 70 the same thing will happen as last time. The whales bots will push price up as high as possible on mark exchanges before the "penalty points" are too high and they will fill a ton of shorts on limit orders on bitmex. And then the price will plummet so i suggest you just wait and see.
I personally usually Set a limit order to short at +$80 of current price right before everything goes nuts and overloaded errors. I then change to market order and type the same number of contracts. And switch to the orders tab so I can click cancel in my limit and start spamming the market sell button until the order goes through if a.) the price just starts going down with no push up or b.) the push up does not look like it will reach my limit order. Because soon as the push up ends the price will fall a good $180+ and then u gotta deal with iverload while trying to market short, its a lot of lost profits all because u tried getting a $20 higher open price with no market fees.
If you look at the 1 hour RSI you can see that it is nearing the overbought quickly every since the droo. Which dint surprise me because as I assumed they are likely looking to drio BTC more before the weekly candle closes on Sunday night to get the rsi down on weekly as much as possible.
As always the whales algorithms will mess you up as much as possible so dont ever believe you have the system figured out. My working theory is that their are 4 separate algorithms running that randomly switch. During one of them I can predict the markets every move but its hard to tell when its randomly changed and things becomes completely diff once it does.
But i can tell you what to watch for and what to do if it happens. Your hope is that the 1 hour rsi gets pumped all the way to 70 and that the drop dont happen randomly before then. If you see 1 hour rsi near 70 then start watching the 5min rsi and 1min. When the hour, 5min and 1min are all setup to 70 almost then you know 100% a drop has to happen and can safely short. But check 15 and 30min just for good meassure that they are up also.
You can honestly short now and 95% certainly make money. They could play games and take hourly sideways for a day while creeping price up but long as you used decent leverage 10x or lower your safe but if you want a better score you can wait and hope what i said happens and i think it will. I still suggest decent leverage 20x max.
So assuming the 1 hour and lower rsi are all converged to very close to 70, ine of 2 things will happen.
1.) least likely the price will just start dropping now until all the rsis are under 30 and then bounce back up a bit to make them 30.
2.) more likely once they are all at 70 the same thing will happen as last time. The whales bots will push price up as high as possible on mark exchanges before the "penalty points" are too high and they will fill a ton of shorts on limit orders on bitmex. And then the price will plummet so i suggest you just wait and see.
I personally usually Set a limit order to short at +$80 of current price right before everything goes nuts and overloaded errors. I then change to market order and type the same number of contracts. And switch to the orders tab so I can click cancel in my limit and start spamming the market sell button until the order goes through if a.) the price just starts going down with no push up or b.) the push up does not look like it will reach my limit order. Because soon as the push up ends the price will fall a good $180+ and then u gotta deal with iverload while trying to market short, its a lot of lost profits all because u tried getting a $20 higher open price with no market fees.
Comment:
I don't post much because it takes alot of time especially on a ipad finger tap keyboard lol. When I do post I do it just because i have spare time and its nice to help the lucky ones that stumble by and randomly read my post. You would think with all my knowledge from studying bitcoin charts for 12+ hours a day, 7 days a week fir the last 2 years that i would be well off but im not, im the opposite because in the beginning i knew nothing and sucked and lost all my money lol. With being disabled and having a baby just last year i have no money to out into crypto to make money because baby needs food, clothes, electric, etc. but being disabled 100% i still spend 12+ hours watching the market everyday so that some day when i can start trading ill be 100% on game and in touch.
Unlike everyone else i dont post to get popular and get people to pay me $500/month to be in my group to give the real info to you lol. I do it cause its the right thing to do but i do have a ton of information and advice and wouldnt mind posting more so im gonna start posting my btc/eth address for tips. Nothing is expected or required. But if my info, is helpful and makes you money and you decide to tip me a commission then it will a.) let me know im not wasting my time and people are reading and following and making money from it and b.) obviously money will motivate me to take a hour off of charts a day to make a post so u can make more. But honestly I don't want you to send a dime unless its money I helped you make because I only wanna take more time posting if its helping. But otherwise ill continue posting every now and then as usual.
Ether = 0x44B92CE1993431327fF20FE7997A1164094a4599
Btc = 321cP5kLuEQFvu1jmQQp66LyqWYiNPmVC1
Always feel free to message me any questions im always willing to help if i can.
Unlike everyone else i dont post to get popular and get people to pay me $500/month to be in my group to give the real info to you lol. I do it cause its the right thing to do but i do have a ton of information and advice and wouldnt mind posting more so im gonna start posting my btc/eth address for tips. Nothing is expected or required. But if my info, is helpful and makes you money and you decide to tip me a commission then it will a.) let me know im not wasting my time and people are reading and following and making money from it and b.) obviously money will motivate me to take a hour off of charts a day to make a post so u can make more. But honestly I don't want you to send a dime unless its money I helped you make because I only wanna take more time posting if its helping. But otherwise ill continue posting every now and then as usual.
Ether = 0x44B92CE1993431327fF20FE7997A1164094a4599
Btc = 321cP5kLuEQFvu1jmQQp66LyqWYiNPmVC1
Always feel free to message me any questions im always willing to help if i can.
Comment:
I will keep updating until this short opportunity plays out as the need arises:
I just looked at all the RSI's since it took me a hour to post that update just now lol. The 5/15/30/45 are all up high so im betting in the next 13 minutes this might start to play out and the drop will happen right after the hour closes is 12-13 minutes. Or it will extend another hour but you should be expecting it to happen any minute possibly
I just looked at all the RSI's since it took me a hour to post that update just now lol. The 5/15/30/45 are all up high so im betting in the next 13 minutes this might start to play out and the drop will happen right after the hour closes is 12-13 minutes. Or it will extend another hour but you should be expecting it to happen any minute possibly
Comment:
They definitely are going to drop very soon it will be impossible to inform you but expect price to start dropping or for that push to start any time. Price Wont drop till the hour in 5 minutes but anytime after then and the push could be any time before, less likely after the hour but they do sometimes just to confuse people
Comment:
If it fails to start dropping by 5 minutes past the hour then its almost certain to either happen randomly during the hour or most likely it will all play out at the next hour. Expect the push near the end of this hour and drop soon after if not immediately when the hour ends.
Comment:
This will likely be the last update needed until i post after it happens. I believe it may very well not happen this hour but the following hour which is when the 45min rsi candle closes at same time as the hour
Comment:
Looking very good that we upward trend next 1h10m followed by hard drop
Comment:
Heads up it may happen at 15min past the hour (5min from now)
Comment:
Nvm they brought price down before 15 closed, the rsi was all the way at 70 if they closed at the price we where at so it looked like they might pull a fast one. Still looks good at hour so far...
Comment:
Could drop any time now because day closes at hour also so they may wanna drop price before hour so day rsi falls also. I woukd short 10-20x now or soon
Comment:
The hour rsi was barely able to be moved no matter how hard they tried last hour so it wasnt gonna get near 70 so its back to playing by ear hour to hour. The 2 most likely targets to me is 1h30mins from now or 3 hours from now
Comment:
Wont happen this hour either, 2 hours from now looks most likely. On a sude nite we will go diwn in orice for like 20-30mins again followed by up until the drop so when it switches to up in 20-30min u can pretty safely go long for a while for some gains just use a tight stop $30 below open because theres no reason we should go down $30 once it starts going up again
Comment:
See how mark price is going down and butmex price is being held at 8565 with constant refreshed orders as they get sold? Whales forcing silly people into closing their shorts from $9100 because they are going to use the profits to short around $8650 or so now.
Looks like it will happen this hour very possibly after all, to early to tell yet but seems like it
Looks like it will happen this hour very possibly after all, to early to tell yet but seems like it
Comment:
I highly suggest you dint try to make money on long right now, the short is the big and safe play. If you go long and try to sell the top you may get screwed on your long if they drop before u sell and miss out in the big prize by missing the short grab
Comment:
Changing again looks like my original suspicion was right that it wont be this hour because 45min candle dont close in this hour, 1h20m looking like the time for now
Comment:
Well based in how low they are dropping 5m and 15m it seems that this is gonna continue in for a fair bit of hours so im gonna stop updating now. By now you should know what to look for when it really happens if it even happens today, it will happen eventually though. As you can see the short game changes constantly which is why i will never play positions on it again when i get back into trading. Just wait for the guaranteed positions. Once all those rsi's from 1m to 1h are at the top the price has to go down even if its not a hard fast drop its gonna steadily drop for a good 6-24 hours
Comment:
Look for this to possibly dump hard in 13min (15 min after the hour). Its not certain but its a good possibility to be prepared for. You can always rebuy right after if it dont and starts up again
Comment:
I have not seen this in a while but it looks like it might be a 2-part pump and dump. In which case another pump will start soon and at the hour (34 mins from now) or soon after it will dump in timing with 45min closing on that hour