Short term bearish and wild reversal fractal

BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
Hi fellow enthusiasts,

We did indeed break down after my last post and now we are in an upwards channel/ rising wedge within the larger downwards channel.
For now I am trading this small upwards channel (buying near the support and shorting near the resistance and taking profit fast.

We never can tell what will happen of course but the most likely scenario at this moment seems to be that we will simply repeat the action from above. Many indicators are behaving very similar so this is my best guess until I see something to invalidate it. I copied the bars and pasted them into the chart as the red line. This would bring us to around 5400.

If we are at the bottom at this moment we could expect a bigger move up once we break out of this downward channel . To illustrate this I copied the action after the bottom beginning of april and pasted it as the green line.
To be honest I would be very surprised to see this happening, I don't see a lot of similarities between april and today.

Looking ahead a bit I copied the price action near the april bottom and pasted it following our most likely red scenario. To my surprise the result seems quite plausible and fits the current conditions quite well.
I am not saying I am expecting this to happen, but if we do go down to 5400 and we do see a big bounce back up I will be getting a strong long positon on the next dip. If something similar would play out then the big move up after we break out of the channel would also be more likely.

Conclusion: for now I am expecting something similar to the red line. Once we get there the strength of the bounce will hopefully tell us something about what is next.
If we would break out of the downwards channel now I don't expect the big green move up. More sideways - after an initial smaller pump maybe - feels much more likely in that case.

But let's see what happens.

Happy trading,


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