philocrypt0

Serious Question: At What Point Would You Be Happy?

KRAKEN:XBTUSD   XBT / USD
I have not been trading for very long and I know very little about how markets behave. I was fortunate like many of you to come into the crypto space at an early stage. I have learned a lot about trading, especially from this community, and I thank you all for that. However, over the past few weeks BTC has defied over and over again my expectations and TA. I have also watched it defy many of the top and most reputable members . Maybe I'm bitter from being burned by a couple flash crashes, but I think I see a pattern here now and would like to share my opinion on the matter with you.

More and more money comes in every day to the crypto space as more and more new people hurry to catch the ride up. People are buying Bitcoin for the first time in their lives for over $10,000. Think about when you first bought a Bitcoin and how much it cost you then. When you buy at a price like that you don't dare sell it for a few hundred bucks; you're in it for the big return. I think that is exactly what is happening now (really since about the time it breached $5000), everyone is buying and nobody is selling. These flash crashes happen as bigger players try to move the markets, but they are over in a matter of minutes and Bitcoin continues to rise. Nobody wants to sell.

Enter Wall Street. I don't know what is going to happen when Bitcoin futures go live; like I said I know very little about how markets behave. I am willing to guess though that Wall Street will not be afraid to sell, especially if they're using other people's money. I'm nervous that Bitcoin is going to continue its runaway climb until the big sellers finally make their move. At that point the question becomes, "will you be able to get your order in during the bank rush?"

I have been very anxious over the past few days trying grapple with what is going on. I was finally able to find relief when I took everything into consideration and asked myself, "at what point would you be happy?" I'm not trying to tell anyone what to do because I understand there is A LOT of money on the line and a lot to be made. I just wanted to suggest that if you haven't ever considered taking profits (like I really never had), no matter how little or how much, now might be a good time to stop and make that consideration.

I want to make one thing very clear: I think blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies are the future. Unfortunately I don't think they have much utility in the now, and they are being driven purely by speculation at this stage in their development. I think it is in everyones interest to have and hold some cryptocurrencies. I do not think Bitcoin can keep going up forever. I don't know how high it can go, and I don't know how low it will crash. I just want to position myself to make a little off these killer gains we have seen so far so I can enjoy what I've earned and hopefully reinvest some when it comes back down; I wish that for all you too.

Thanks again for all of your support, knowledge and friendship.

Happy trading!

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I'm asking myself the exact same questions at the moment. I'd like to wait for it to double one more time. But there's a big risk like you say. I think i'll start divesting slowly. 20% maybe today. It's hard to weigh the cost of losing out vs the security of taking profit now.......!
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philocrypt0 mcambron001
@mcambron001, double!!! I'd be so happy for you if that happens! At this pace it's not impossible either. I think it is important to have a plan and to stick to it though, not to just keep pushing your "happy" price back a little more every time it gets close to the mark. I'm a little more conservative; my first mark was at 15k and my last mark is at 20k. My order will probably be placed closer to 18750 though because of my FOMO (for some reason the Kraken has been hitting resistance at the 800 levels).
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mcambron001 philocrypt0
@philocrypt0, I sold 30% of my holdings. I've bought them at an average of 300 I think.

Good luck! Don't let fear guide you idd...
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philocrypt0 mcambron001
@mcambron001, Congratulations! :-) That's a better trade than most people could ever hope to make in their life. May the force be with you.
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