So it looks bitcoin topped out for now at $19,450. This was a likely event given the run up speed and parabolic movement.
Where is the next stop? Well it's hard say precisely, but the two main areas of interest I'm looking at are $13,900 and $12,200. Both are exactly at points based on a fibonacci retracement from the $5k bottom (in 2019 after the 1k March candle and technically in 2020 assuming there wasn't the liquidation spillover on the derivatives market - I believe below was a bit of an anomaly and should have bottomed in the $4,8-$5k area).
These two areas ($13,900 and $12,200) not only correspond with the fibonacci lines, they also represent areas that have inefficiencies (i.e. didn't get re-tested on the run up this year) and have low volume nodes on the VPVR. Further to this, $13,800 was the 2019 top, so if it s/r flips this point that would make a very suitable bottom.
Another thing that crossed my mind was the date at which alts bottomed and began their November run up, this was on 4th November and Bitcoin's price then was around the $13,800 area. It didn't form much of a base here before moving up further so likely this area will get re-tested. As above this would be in line with alts doing a full retrace of their 4th November run up before beginning their proper journey onwards.
So for now the main area of interest for me is the $13,800-$14,000 area which actually seems more likely than $12,200-$12,500.
I'll be looking as have always been pretty accurate indicators, negative funding on derivatives and backwardation on futures.
Let's see how things play out over the next few weeks.
I actually posted something on twitter that I later deleted (I don't like to suggest to people what to do) saying to buy March and September calls in Mid December. At that point of the tweet the price was around $16,400 and I thought it was going retrace from there. I do still believe that time-wise it's likely to be somewhere in this Mid December area when we see the bottom of this correction.
In line with the above, if I had to guess, I'd go with bottoms at $13,850 (BTC), $385 (ETH) and $0.35 (XRP) on 10/12/2020
Where is the next stop? Well it's hard say precisely, but the two main areas of interest I'm looking at are $13,900 and $12,200. Both are exactly at points based on a fibonacci retracement from the $5k bottom (in 2019 after the 1k March candle and technically in 2020 assuming there wasn't the liquidation spillover on the derivatives market - I believe below was a bit of an anomaly and should have bottomed in the $4,8-$5k area).
These two areas ($13,900 and $12,200) not only correspond with the fibonacci lines, they also represent areas that have inefficiencies (i.e. didn't get re-tested on the run up this year) and have low volume nodes on the VPVR. Further to this, $13,800 was the 2019 top, so if it s/r flips this point that would make a very suitable bottom.
Another thing that crossed my mind was the date at which alts bottomed and began their November run up, this was on 4th November and Bitcoin's price then was around the $13,800 area. It didn't form much of a base here before moving up further so likely this area will get re-tested. As above this would be in line with alts doing a full retrace of their 4th November run up before beginning their proper journey onwards.
So for now the main area of interest for me is the $13,800-$14,000 area which actually seems more likely than $12,200-$12,500.
I'll be looking as have always been pretty accurate indicators, negative funding on derivatives and backwardation on futures.
Let's see how things play out over the next few weeks.
I actually posted something on twitter that I later deleted (I don't like to suggest to people what to do) saying to buy March and September calls in Mid December. At that point of the tweet the price was around $16,400 and I thought it was going retrace from there. I do still believe that time-wise it's likely to be somewhere in this Mid December area when we see the bottom of this correction.
In line with the above, if I had to guess, I'd go with bottoms at $13,850 (BTC), $385 (ETH) and $0.35 (XRP) on 10/12/2020
Comment:
OK as pointed out, I've mistakenly inverted the Fibonacci retracement tool, however the same levels still apply when applied correctly. $13,917 (0.618) and $12,178 (0.5) - the 1.618 extension stands at $28,653. Apologies for oversight.