So we've tested $4100 and retested once again but this time higher at $4200 on Christmas eve. With a bearish RSI divergence and dropping volume we were expecting a move down. The move happened as expected to the downside on Christmas day.
So where to from here. Well it is difficult to tell at this stage. We sit tightly on the 4HR 200MA and measuring a FIB from the lows of $3111 and the high of $4241 we can see that we are between the .382 and the .5 fibs.
There's two scenarios we can go from here.
Scenario 1: A retest to the upper side.
So with this scenario we should see a small rebound due to the big drop that we saw today 25/12. The retest will be $4000-$4100 and then shortly drop further to $3351 (VPVR) Support and Resistance and .786 key fib.
Scenario 2: Pause and continue bear
At these levels we're taking a breather from the bearish move from today and staying here for a few candles (probably a day's worth of candles) before moving further south. As with Scenario 1: we're looking at testing $3351 S/R level. If this breaks then we may see new lows below $3111.
So what am I doing?
BTCUSD
I'm hanging tight. I don't see direction and in some cases a no trade is better than a trade, especially if you don't see a move. I unfortunately missed the mark on the way down from 4100 as I set my entry too high and never got triggered but there's also another day another dollar.
So where to from here. Well it is difficult to tell at this stage. We sit tightly on the 4HR 200MA and measuring a FIB from the lows of $3111 and the high of $4241 we can see that we are between the .382 and the .5 fibs.
There's two scenarios we can go from here.
Scenario 1: A retest to the upper side.
So with this scenario we should see a small rebound due to the big drop that we saw today 25/12. The retest will be $4000-$4100 and then shortly drop further to $3351 (VPVR) Support and Resistance and .786 key fib.
Scenario 2: Pause and continue bear
At these levels we're taking a breather from the bearish move from today and staying here for a few candles (probably a day's worth of candles) before moving further south. As with Scenario 1: we're looking at testing $3351 S/R level. If this breaks then we may see new lows below $3111.
So what am I doing?
BTCUSD
I'm hanging tight. I don't see direction and in some cases a no trade is better than a trade, especially if you don't see a move. I unfortunately missed the mark on the way down from 4100 as I set my entry too high and never got triggered but there's also another day another dollar.