I have channels where the price happily bounces between
It is a place where all candles are green
Future is there to be foreseen
Price is about to jump like a Mexican bean
Reminder from the last post, I had an open long position with an average entry of 10710 (35% of the entry volume at 10835 and 65% of the entry volume at 10655). I closed half of my long position at 10980 (with a 25% profit. By the way, nearly all of my trades have x10 leverage) however my expectancy for the first stop was just below 11100. The reason for changing my mind is that I decided to remove all my previous trend lines and key levels from the chart and draw them back. Sometimes it becomes too confusing as the new levels and lines are added on the top of the old indicators. My whole screen just turns into a mess. Removing and drawing them back allows me to eliminate some of those old levels that does not seem prominent anymore. It also refreshes my sight into market. I also move my stop-loss for the remaining long position to just below 10910 which means a profit of 18%. It not because that the move is getting weak but it is possible to have a $300 retracement from the current level. We are also about to close the weekly candle so a quick drop seems possible to me. However I am still bullish on this.
Moving from bottom to top, black line is the line. It is the line of lines. It is 10,000. If that's broken, bears will shit on us. Big bear shits are those. Above the black line, there is the cherry line. This is the line I consider to have a re-entry for another long position. This is the scenario where my 10910 stop loss is triggered and all my positions are closed. Volume of the re-entry is less than the previous trade (this will be around 20% of the total equity, 35% was for the previous trade) and it will be a single entry from 10650 range. If that works out fine, it will be the cherry line that holds. Stop-loss for this trade will be determined if the price falls to 10520 range and presents weakness to make new highs. However, no matter how weak the price gets, I believe there still be a dead cat bounce to the entry price. In this sense, I have a tight stop-loss.
Remaining 3 lines are the resistances. Silver line is blocking the way above 11050-11100 range which I believe it will be broken soon. Golden line is the 1st target price both for the current trade and for the trade I am planning to take if the price retraces. Golden range is between 10500 and 10550. If I don't receive any strong bearish bias by the time reaches the golden range, I may divide my exit points to both golden line and the top, red line. Red line and blue line (top of the trade-channel on the opposite direction with the colored channels) crossing point are indicating a similar resistance point at 12,000. 12,000 is a point to be interpreted later on. At the current point, making a judgement on what happens if the price hits 12,000 doesn't really makes much sense. Price breaking above 12,000 and finding support from this point indicates the persistence of the current bull market. I don't even consider getting bearish at this point to go short, I find it too risky.
By the way, remember 11350 level that I mentioned on my previous post? Fuck it! I don't care about it that much anymore. 11100 is the wall to be taken down that leads us the way to the promised lands, 11,500-12,000.
Wish you all a great week.
Comment:
I am considering to close remaining part of my long position above 11300. However if this level is broken without having a stop, I am still expecting to close this just around 11500. Volume for the last week is what concerns me. If 11300 is reached, last piece will be closed with 55% profit. Combining both positions, it's been a 40% profit in overall on a single day, not bad. If this is a weak up movement indeed, we may have a retrace back to 10900 and I don't want to risk that. My extreme target was a 11500 and having a drop down to 10900 gives a bad risk/reward ratio at this point.
Trade closed: target reached:
Trade is closed at 11405 with a profit of 65%. I don't think I will go either long or short for a day or two. Price should be watched around 11500 if it goes up and 10900 if it goes down. I still believe that the price will reach up to golden line on the chart, 11500-11550 but I just wanted to go to sleep for now.