Let's start with having a check on hour key resistance and support levels. By the time I talked about these key points where the price was is indicated with a blue cross on the chart.1st resistance level (10521) was first broken that was followed by a retracement bar. Then we close above Daily & Weekly resistance level (10590) but failed to reach next resistance level (4H strong resistance-10644(~10650)). Upcoming bar however exceeded 10650 but the price dropped sharply back to 10400 (4H-immediate resistance). Jumping to current price, there is only 4H & daily resistance range at 10938(between~10950-11000).
At this point I am more keen to go long rather than short. This doesn't mean I may also go short here. I know it sounds quite dumb to say that I can bet on both sides. I will try explain my dumb idea, stick with me. To summarize the following text, it will tell you that the current state seems more secure to go long since it is easier to define an entry point for a long position. On the other end, if the price keeps on being rejected from the last resistance level, 11000 area, we may see a quick drop down to the 4H strong resistance at 10650, however this is the risky option. Risk comes from that fact that I don't have a planned point to put my short order but I prefer to go short as the price hovers around 11000 if it ever does.
What I will watch out is the volume. If the price cannot break above 11000 with a burst volume and a bursting bar, I take that as a weak bearish signal to go short. But I think I will try it anyways regardless of the weak signal. If 10650 cannot provide a healthy bounce that breaks above 11000, now this is a neutral bearish signal to me. If it even goes down below 10100-10200 range. Oh boi! Oh boi! We have a strong bearish signal.
That's enough of short stories, we also have long ones. As it is mentioned above, I have one last resistance to break for a big leg-up. I am considering having some long position at 10650 (65% of the total volume that I consider to put on my long position) and also at 10850, maybe a bit below (35% of the volume on long position). Comparing my long volume with my total equity, I think it will be around %25-35. And yes, I have a risky risk management method. Let me put it this way:
Long Position Advantages: We have broken many resistance levels and only one is remained to be broken. Possibility of having a high amplitude shooting bar is undeniable. It provides a nice risk to reward ratio. Average entry is around 10770 with a stop loss around 10650, however if it bounces from this price and jumps above 10800 I may move my stop loss to 10800. Depending on the move on smaller time frame, I check for pivot high and pivot low points to do adjustments to my stop loss. I also define momentum from RSI and watch bar patterns that are closer to Fibonacci levels. Target price is 10350 for now. I will keep the post updated if I decide to change the target. There is really no trend-line that I can draw inside the last trade-channel (you can check the previous post).
Short Position Disadvantages: This trade is against to current trend. I will be watching the price closely before I jump the gun and same for my stop-loss. That's quite an unplanned trade so this is more of a gamble than a trade in that sense. One advantage might be that I interpret the 4H-RSI as getting weak, but not a strong weakening but a neutral one. As the price increases, I really don't see the same increasing bias on the volume. It makes me thing that this move might be heavily carried by retailers.
For now, I have some more ideas but I don't find them considerable for now. Most of have quite weak-to-a bit neutral bias. If they turn into strong signals, I will update the idea by adding them. Stay tuned!
Good luck on your trades.
Comment:
First order is filled at 10835.
Comment:
Second order is filled at 10645.
Comment:
Target price should be 11350, not 10350. Sorry for the mistake. Before we reach to this level, 11100 may be the first stop. For now, I am waiting to see if the price goes above 10725-10750 range.
Trade closed manually:
Closed 50% of my long position at 10980.