fract

Evaluation of supposed bullrun of bitcoin

BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
There are 2 channels shown here inside which we would expect the price to fluctuate.
I use The black fib channel to adapt it to the recent sharp rise. After all, we are unlikely to see 3k again in the nearest future. Therefore, this tool is suitable to synchronize retracement under the new realities of the market to work out its general direction. The black fib channel has a regression function, i.e. at first its angle was support and now it has become resistance, therefore all the elements - the remaining divisions of the fibs will be relevant in the event in which the price does not break the red downward trend, playing the role of resistance.
To remain in sharp condition of bullish market OR the further growth can be possible if:
  • The price breaks above red line of resistance.
  • Doesn't cross below yellow dashed line.
  • Fluctuation occur inside blue channel. 1 Distortion I'd accept is breaking top side.
Otherwise, it will just retrace inside black fib channel. By the way, fib (1) of retracement channel, will act as a bottom, if the scenario above fails.
If fib (1) fails, then look for dotted green 1.618 as next support, etc.

Crossing yellow dashed line is the first sign of reversal, but I'd rather use my fave combination of indicators instead.

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In my opinion, the bullrun will take place only when the price crosses above downward resistance line into green area. See chart above
Comment:
Comment: Still inside black channel. Breaking above it at this point of time can only do an exponential growth.