Well, that got pretty negative pretty quick. I remember a couple months ago when everyone was FOMO’ing in at $12-13k, wishing they’d bought at $3500, $5000, $7800…you get the idea. Let’s take a look at where we are in the market cycle with the little bit of history we have to go off of. Stop here if you’re looking for a short-term trade.
2016 halving on top, 2020 (projected, obviously) on bottom. We look to be right on track save for being on a slightly tighter schedule. A rough estimate of how much faster…I’d say about 15% given the difference between prior bull market peak to halving, length of each bull market, and time between bottom of the bear market to beginning of recovery. This makes sense to me given the liquidity and fiat on-ramps now versus then.
-80%ish bear market
-Period of consolidation
-Break above the 50 SMA
-Golden cross 50 over 200 SMA
Notice that price ranged for a couple months after the 2015 3d golden cross until the 50 SMA caught up with it for support. Also notice that it didn’t revisit previous lows after the cross.
Bull case -
The market just had a significant golden cross and needs to consolidate to the three day 50 SMA. That average also coincides with the CME futures gap around $8400 if you’re in the camp that believes those have to be filled in. Then the pre-halving mania can ensue and we can expect a top in March or April of 2020, followed by a selloff, then the real bull market begins.
Bear case –
This was the pre-halving top! The last run up to halving achieved 66% of the 2013 bull market top. 66% of the 2017 top is around $13k depending on your exchange. Halving cycles don’t really matter and Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme. Learn to code. Insert NPC meme of choice.
I’m on the bull bandwagon and I’m comfortable with my position that was established before the FOMO days of late spring and summer. The bears screaming we went up too far too fast have been wrecked by multiple thousand dollar green candles that came out of nowhere. I also haven’t bet the farm on crypto and have positions in other cyclically low markets that should do well in the current geopolitical & central bank dumpster fire that’s nowhere near as hot as it’s going to get.
Time to find a trade. Good luck.
2016 halving on top, 2020 (projected, obviously) on bottom. We look to be right on track save for being on a slightly tighter schedule. A rough estimate of how much faster…I’d say about 15% given the difference between prior bull market peak to halving, length of each bull market, and time between bottom of the bear market to beginning of recovery. This makes sense to me given the liquidity and fiat on-ramps now versus then.
-80%ish bear market
-Period of consolidation
-Break above the 50 SMA
-Golden cross 50 over 200 SMA
Notice that price ranged for a couple months after the 2015 3d golden cross until the 50 SMA caught up with it for support. Also notice that it didn’t revisit previous lows after the cross.
Bull case -
The market just had a significant golden cross and needs to consolidate to the three day 50 SMA. That average also coincides with the CME futures gap around $8400 if you’re in the camp that believes those have to be filled in. Then the pre-halving mania can ensue and we can expect a top in March or April of 2020, followed by a selloff, then the real bull market begins.
Bear case –
This was the pre-halving top! The last run up to halving achieved 66% of the 2013 bull market top. 66% of the 2017 top is around $13k depending on your exchange. Halving cycles don’t really matter and Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme. Learn to code. Insert NPC meme of choice.
I’m on the bull bandwagon and I’m comfortable with my position that was established before the FOMO days of late spring and summer. The bears screaming we went up too far too fast have been wrecked by multiple thousand dollar green candles that came out of nowhere. I also haven’t bet the farm on crypto and have positions in other cyclically low markets that should do well in the current geopolitical & central bank dumpster fire that’s nowhere near as hot as it’s going to get.
Time to find a trade. Good luck.