Sawcruhteez
Long

ETH:USD in a similar position as Bitcoin was in early April

BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
ETH:USD appears to be one leg behind BTC and in the process of forming it's own triangle. BTC short sellers were at an all time high on April 11 and a massive short squeeze followed (which I predicted on April 7th)

Ethereum short sellers have increased drastically over the last couple days and they are currently pulling back from all time high levels. Meanwhile the price of ETH hasn't flinched. This is a very bullish indicator for the short term price imo .


Below is my full analysis:

Yesterday’s analysis: Horizontal and trend support should provide bounce. Last bounce was too potent and we have fallen too far for this level of support to breakdown now.
Patterns: Seems to be a leg behind the BTCUSD triangle.
ETHUSDSHORTS: shot through the roof, all the way to ATH levels and the price went nowhere.
Funding Rates: 0.0064%
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $429 R: $445
EMA’s (12 & 26): bullish crossover on 1h, getting ready to cross on 2h. Bearish on the rest.
MA crossovers: bearish
FIB’s: 0.382 at $563 and 0.236 at $359
Candlestick analysis: Two bottom wicks vs tweezer top on daily. Weekly has bearish engulfing . 3d hammer
Ichimoku Cloud: 3d: fully bearish with thin cloud at $732. 1d: Tenkan resistance divergence in Tenken and Kijun.
TD Sequential: D: red 4 after incomplete setup. Resistance at $540. W: Red 8 3D: Red 1 after two candle correction to the upside (still has time to turn into a green 3)
Visible Range: A lot of resistance from $450 - $500. If it gets through that at $660 looks likely (that is also where top of triangle would be)
50 & 200 MA’s (calculate % difference):
Bollinger Bands: Bottom band on 1d and 3d are apart of current support cluster
Trendline: Hyperwave line fits price movement back to $2.50 ETH.
Daily Trend: Bullish over last 16 hours.
Fractals: Down: $407.99 Up: $497.15
On Balance Volume: daily h&s

“As for me, I have no desire to carry the football from end zone to end zone. Just give me the territory between the 20 yard lines.” @PeterLBrandt

Yard line of trend: If you say $359 is the bottom then we are inside the 20 for bearish positions. If you don’t say $359 is the bottom then would have to look at $54.

Conclusion: The ETHUSDSHORTS and the hyperwave line are the two most important factors for me right now. Very surprised that amount of short sellers didn’t cause the price to pullback at all. There is going to be a short squeeze.

Betting against the trend and the VRVP are the two biggest reasons to hesitate. I think the support combined with how far we have fallen combined with the amount of short sellers will be enough to get us past $500 and a target of $650 seems very likely to be reached.
Comment:
EMASAR Indicator is available for purchase at http://www.sawcruhteez.com

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