Precise German Engineering - Finding the Perfect Position

This is preciseness at its best. This is nearly poetry.

On the previous versions of the colored trade channel, I didn't precisely placed it on the previous top, indicated with a green circle on the left of the screen. Now look at 4th of August. Look how perfectly the price movements fit. Look how price finds support from the cherry line as it fails to reach the grey line. Look how price just shoots more than $600 once the price exceeds the grey line. Look how nicely it breaks above the golden line and comes back and finds support before topping at red line. Look how perfectly it shows you the point where the price tops.

Reason for me talking cocky is not to act like a cock, maybe a little, but to shout you the fact that you have to stop using tens of indicators to find out what is next. I am getting dizzy while looking at the charts that people are sharing. Let me take it one step further and tell you that learning/applying too much indicators is the primary reason on your failures. Nearly all indicators are based on price and volume and works by making two simple information more complicated than it is to generate signal. It's the structure what matters. It is the price itself. Zoom out and pick closing and opening prices. Draw trend-lines and keep them parallel. Create a trade channel and see how the price acts by the time it touches the line.

Start from the left. 1-Black circle: Price tries to break above a level and the level is rising because each time a peak is reached, it is always higher than the previous high. 2- Black circle: Price did not even stay near the line but was only able to put a wick on a point. 3-Black circle: Once the price comes back to a level it never came down to this level but went up to 14,000. Now you have all you need to make huge profits from your trades. Just draw a line connecting these 3 points and create copies of it. Where to put these copies? 2 key places: 1-Place them on points where once the price touches that point the price reverses and at least starts a retracement for the current trend. 2- As in the case for the 1st black circle, find points where price makes couple of attempts to break above/below and once that point is broken, price makes new highs/lows but do not retraces right after. Even if it retraces, newly broken resistance point should now act as a support before making new highs or shooting a big green/red bar.

Do you need a precise entry point? These lines and high time frame W/D/4H opening/closing prices are as precise as it can get. Do you want a high R for your trades or a tight stop-loss, trade close to trend-lines. Do you want to know about the current trend of the market. Check the direction of the channel. Check where the price is between these channel lines. All the information you need is already there.

Too many indicators only confuses you. Keep it simple. Simplicity helps you to execute your trades with less doubt. Being afraid of executing a trading strategy certainly leads listening other's opinion. What does it have to do with execution? Trading is all about execution but nothing else.

So where BTC is heading now and where to position our trades?

I have 3 entry points and distribution of the volume to put on is indicated next to these lines. 25% is around 11,525, 35% is around 11,413, and finally last long order is placed around 11,250 with 40% of the total volume on long positions. Grey line is the stop-loss. I will explain why I picked my entry points depending on Fibonacci levels but not trading on the grey line. First I have to explain how choose anchor points for the Fibonacci retracement. As everybody does, I choose previous low and high points for the Fibonacci range but the exact points to anchor the Fibonacci, that I do differently. Everybody has a different edge. This difference does not apply to trading bots and algorithms like big evens. That's why I don't care about the wicks or the candle body. I only choose the bottom range to anchor but the exact point is a big even where the price hovered around or gets rejected. I used the latter reason to pick the top of the Fibonacci retracement. Even the price wasn't able to touch 12,000, it is the big even that the price is rejected. That's how algorithms work. That's how I picked my entry points, from the Fibonacci levels 0.5, 0.618, and 0.786.

Here is the reason why I don't use the grey line as the entry but as the stop-loss point. Trade-channel between the golden and grey lines has already broken. If the price is going to break 12,000 resistance and make new highs, price has nothing to do with the trade-channel on downstairs. It has to remain inside red-golden line channel to no show weakness. However, there is one thing that I encountered a lot as the price comes to the extremes of a trade-channel, just like now. It breaks below the top trade-channel (between the red and golden lines) and takes support from a major point inside the channel but does not retrace down to bottom of the channel, in this case it is the grey line. Fibonacci retracement tool is how I define those major levels. If the price comes down to the grey line, I will consider that as a neutral weakening signal and may close my long positions below 12,000.

Target price points for this trade are 13,000 (-1 level of the Fibonacci retracement), 13,650 (Daily & Weekly & Monthly resistance), and finally 16,225 (Weekly resistance). For the entry points mentioned above, average entry is around 11,380 and stop-loss is around 11,150.

11,618 is also a quite possible point for price to bounce before breaking 12,000. 11,618 is both 0.382 level of the Fibonacci retracement and also on the golden trend-line. I may enter a low volume long position at this point. There sure be a bounce will happen at this point but this will be a short-term trade if I see that the price movement is weak to go for 12,000.

Good luck on your trades!

Comment:

I got at least some long position from 11620. I planned my stop-loss around 11535 but it never retraced below the golden line. Current place for the stop-loss is just below 12,000 now. Closing the position at this price gives a profit of 32% with a x10 leverage, that I always use. Not bad, considering that I was sleeping when all these happened.

Trade closed manually:

That escalated quickly. I just closed my long position at 12,280 with a profit of 57%. That's enough profit for me and that's the one reason for closing my position. Now the price has to find support from 12,000 and has nothing to do below this level. That's another reason for me to close my long. After breaking above 12,000 resistance, we better see an S/R flip of this price to confirm that the breakout was actually legit. Otherwise, if this is a fake-out, it will cause too much misery for some. Carefully watch the price about this level.