Bitcoin Daily Update (day 285)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

For a variety of reasons I no longer believe that $2,718 will be the bottom of the 2018 Bitcoin’ bear market. I am now very confident that we will return to $1,000 before finding a bottom. That is due to Tyler Jenks’ hyperwave theory and the Point of Control on the Visible Range Volume Profile with > 2 year look back | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018, however I do not believe that will be the bottom. Strongly expect ETH to return to single digits before the end of 2019 | Calling a top in the S&P 500 at $2,634


Previous analysis: “Watching $3,200 support very closely.”
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short ADA:BTC from 954 sats | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00778 | Short XRP:BTC from 8710 sats | Short USDT:USD from $0.99 | Short BTC:USD from $3,288.5

Patterns: Bear trend / hyperwave
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,142 | R: $3,250
BTCUSDSHORTS: When squeeze?
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0297%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Full candle below, bearish as it gets. Watch for continued resistance
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Trending down
Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Bearish
Overall trend: Bearish
Volume: Volume increasing as price sells off. Indicates that move is real.
Candlestick analysis: Really thought we would see an extended range candle if we broke $3,200. Where did this support at $3,150 come from?
Ichimoku Cloud: Kijun just turned down sharply, starting to resolve C-Clamp. Makes me very interested how this is calculated. Do you any of you know?
TD’ Sequential: R2 closed < r1 and now r3 = r2. C13
Visible Range: Ah, the high volume node that I discounted due to consolidated slightly above is where the support likely came from.
Price action: 24h: -2.3% | 14d: -20.2% | 1m: -46.9%
Bollinger Bands: Really thought a breakdown of $3,200 would lead to a retest of the bottom band at ~$3,000.
Trendline: Right in between the 4 and 9 MA’s, indicating a serious resistance cluster at $3,250 - $3,350.
Daily Trend (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend): Bearish af’
Parabolic SAR: Just noticed that it is holding up nicely on the 1h. I am very impressed with the SAR on every time frame. Daily = $4,007
RSI: Back below 30 and created a lower low
Stochastic: Ugly as it gets.
Last Day Rule: Now we would need a move above $3,500 for setup day, makes me feel good about my stop at $3,551.

Summary: Everything is about as bearish as it can get except for the daily candle. I really expected another candle like yesterdays if we broke down $3,200. Instead we found support at $3,150 and close a candle that indicates that bears losing momentum.

However, outside of that everything else is indicating lower prices in the next few days / weeks. Volume increasing as price sells off, TD’ Sequential being on a red 3, Ichimoku C-Clamp resolving itself, full candle below the 4 MA, continued resistance from the trendline.

Until we close above that trendline and the 4 MA then I am feeling very good about holding a short. Even if we do bounce then I expect that to be very short lived.