Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
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Consensio: P < L MA < S MA < M MA | Watch out for death cross
Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Parallel channel
Horizontals: R: $4,070 | S: $3,581
Parabolic SAR: $4,068
Futures Curve: Backwardation with widening spread
BTCUSDSHORTS: Starting to pick back up
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.1256%
TD’ Sequential: R3
Ichimoku Cloud: Price is fighting hard to reenter that cloud.
Relative Strength Index: Sticking below 50
Price Action: 24h: -0.4% | 2w: -5.9% | 1m: +5.5%
Bollinger Bands: Starting to trend bearish with price below MA
Stochastic Oscillator: Quickly pulling back to oversold territory.
Summary: Very unimpressed with the reaction that we are seeing from horizontal support. I wanted to see an immediate response in order to be confident that the breakdown on Wednesday was a shakeout before a 50%+ dead cat bounce.
On the other hand I was watching for a close below yesterday’s low to provide final confirmation to exit longs and start scaling into shorts. Neither of those occured and that has me scratching my head.
Bitcoin closed a doji that never fell below yesterday’s lows and that could be viewed as bears running out of ammunition under $3,800. However the longer we stay below the 33 MA (currently at $3,715) the more confident I will be that bears are maintaining control.
If we hold here long enough for a death cross to occur then I will be moving very quickly into some short positions.
There are a couple reasons why I am remaining tentatively bullish and considering adding to my long position after today’s close and that is the futures curve. Not only is it experiencing backwardation but the spread is increasing from 3% to 3.8% over the last 24 hours.
Generally I would stay out of the markets when the waters are this murky. However, I believe that the backwardation with a widening spread is a strong enough indicator in and of itself for me to act on. The risk:reward also favors bulls in this area.
Furthermore the funding rates have been very expensive over the past 24 hours for short sellers, about 10X the average. This is as important to me as the BTCUSDSHORTS chart which is showing a lack of short selling. When funding rates are this expensive for shorts then it tells me that BTCUSDSHORTS chart is not painting the full picture.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
Consensio: P < L MA < S MA < M MA | Watch out for death cross
Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Parallel channel
Horizontals: R: $4,070 | S: $3,581
Parabolic SAR: $4,068
Futures Curve: Backwardation with widening spread
BTCUSDSHORTS: Starting to pick back up
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.1256%
TD’ Sequential: R3
Ichimoku Cloud: Price is fighting hard to reenter that cloud.
Relative Strength Index: Sticking below 50
Price Action: 24h: -0.4% | 2w: -5.9% | 1m: +5.5%
Bollinger Bands: Starting to trend bearish with price below MA
Stochastic Oscillator: Quickly pulling back to oversold territory.
Summary: Very unimpressed with the reaction that we are seeing from horizontal support. I wanted to see an immediate response in order to be confident that the breakdown on Wednesday was a shakeout before a 50%+ dead cat bounce.
On the other hand I was watching for a close below yesterday’s low to provide final confirmation to exit longs and start scaling into shorts. Neither of those occured and that has me scratching my head.
Bitcoin closed a doji that never fell below yesterday’s lows and that could be viewed as bears running out of ammunition under $3,800. However the longer we stay below the 33 MA (currently at $3,715) the more confident I will be that bears are maintaining control.
If we hold here long enough for a death cross to occur then I will be moving very quickly into some short positions.
There are a couple reasons why I am remaining tentatively bullish and considering adding to my long position after today’s close and that is the futures curve. Not only is it experiencing backwardation but the spread is increasing from 3% to 3.8% over the last 24 hours.
Generally I would stay out of the markets when the waters are this murky. However, I believe that the backwardation with a widening spread is a strong enough indicator in and of itself for me to act on. The risk:reward also favors bulls in this area.
Furthermore the funding rates have been very expensive over the past 24 hours for short sellers, about 10X the average. This is as important to me as the BTCUSDSHORTS chart which is showing a lack of short selling. When funding rates are this expensive for shorts then it tells me that BTCUSDSHORTS chart is not painting the full picture.
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