BTC remains at cross roads, hinging on the outcome of the weekly close/open. Bullish sentiment has been fuelled by the recent break of the bearish trendline, here's a few scenarios to consider:
- A break and close below 8500 (and the bearish trendline) especially on the weekly will yield confidence to shorts. This will need to occur rather aggressively, otherwise, buyers will remain confident. Should this scenario play out, we will remain in a state of purgatory, will have to await further confirmation from breaks to hold below support at 7900 to lean bearish.
Now onto some more probabilistic scenarios;
- A daily close at or above resistance of 8700, will maintain buyer confidence. Buyers will likely come in to form support at this level helping fuel the move up to resistance at around 9300-9500, likely to yield some pull-back thereafter.
- If we encounter some short term sellers, but close at or above 8500 on the weekly, buyers still maintain confidence. Buyers will come in to form support at or around 8400 to 8500. I will be looking to see if our support holds, if the short term sellers prevail, I will look to encounter a strong support from buyers at around 7900.
High risk trade zone since we are at crossroads, and will likely remain as such until we see more price action. We can look to see where we end up with the close of April, likely setting the tone for the longer term trend.
- A break and close below 8500 (and the bearish trendline) especially on the weekly will yield confidence to shorts. This will need to occur rather aggressively, otherwise, buyers will remain confident. Should this scenario play out, we will remain in a state of purgatory, will have to await further confirmation from breaks to hold below support at 7900 to lean bearish.
Now onto some more probabilistic scenarios;
- A daily close at or above resistance of 8700, will maintain buyer confidence. Buyers will likely come in to form support at this level helping fuel the move up to resistance at around 9300-9500, likely to yield some pull-back thereafter.
- If we encounter some short term sellers, but close at or above 8500 on the weekly, buyers still maintain confidence. Buyers will come in to form support at or around 8400 to 8500. I will be looking to see if our support holds, if the short term sellers prevail, I will look to encounter a strong support from buyers at around 7900.
High risk trade zone since we are at crossroads, and will likely remain as such until we see more price action. We can look to see where we end up with the close of April, likely setting the tone for the longer term trend.
Comment:
Buyers are running out of steam as evident on the 4HR timeframe, buyers cannot cover the downward pressure imposed by sellers at 8900 supply area. I anticipate a bull trap on the smaller time frame (on the 15minute) to the topside of the larger bullish penant, thus activating opportunistic sellers, and some take-profit actions from the bullish trend-setters. A pullback remains probable with supply forming around the 8980 - 9030 range within the next 4 hours.
I anticipate significant demand at 8500 to 8700 range, previous strong S/R's. Bulls maintain overall confidence at this instance.
I anticipate significant demand at 8500 to 8700 range, previous strong S/R's. Bulls maintain overall confidence at this instance.
Comment:
On the weekly time frame, we are still not bullish, despite the bullish indications per price action. Bullish confirmation will come from a higher-high close of the subsequent weekly candle.
As indicated in my initial entry, the last week of April will lead the trading sentiment for the longer trend.
As indicated in my initial entry, the last week of April will lead the trading sentiment for the longer trend.
Trade active:
BTC has followed through with its bullish consolidation at 9000. Per my April 21st analysis, I stated the following:
"- A daily close at or above resistance of 8700, will maintain buyer confidence. Buyers will likely come in to form support at this level helping fuel the move up to resistance at around 9300-9500, likely to yield some pull-back thereafter. "
We can anticipate strong buyers confidence at this time, and should we maintain this confidence over a longer period (greater than 4-hours), we will encounter our resistance at 9300 to 9400. I anticipate trailing support from buyers, until and unless we hit our supply zone.
"- A daily close at or above resistance of 8700, will maintain buyer confidence. Buyers will likely come in to form support at this level helping fuel the move up to resistance at around 9300-9500, likely to yield some pull-back thereafter. "
We can anticipate strong buyers confidence at this time, and should we maintain this confidence over a longer period (greater than 4-hours), we will encounter our resistance at 9300 to 9400. I anticipate trailing support from buyers, until and unless we hit our supply zone.
Trade closed: target reached:
A reasonable indication of how much sellers we have relative to buyers (or vice-versa) is to look at the percentage retracement encountered after a trend-follow period. Through this strategy, we can see that a lot of buyers still maintain the upper-hand so far.
Our initial analysis remains intact, however, more probabilistic weight needs to be given to a retracement (pull back) from this recent bull trend.