Hi guys,
Just an alternative idea to the diametric idea - as I was going through this, I realized it isn't clear at all which case makes more sense, as both seem to fit very well.
We could be in Wave-2 of a larger impulsive series, currently on Wave-A of Wave-2. I would expect Wave-C of Wave-A to end at $7100 before we head into Wave-B, and hazarding a guess that Wave-2 might end at $6666.
Just an alternative idea to the diametric idea - as I was going through this, I realized it isn't clear at all which case makes more sense, as both seem to fit very well.
We could be in Wave-2 of a larger impulsive series, currently on Wave-A of Wave-2. I would expect Wave-C of Wave-A to end at $7100 before we head into Wave-B, and hazarding a guess that Wave-2 might end at $6666.
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Looking at what Wave-A's Wave-C did, I don't think this will be the real bounce though. I'm still sticking to 7100 being the actual bounce, but we will see one shortly... probably to the top of the channel at around 9700.
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Rough idea, just matching events - not targets. Wave-A's Wave-C on top of current Wave-C
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Ignore that comment, I hate copying patterns for that reason. Just pay attention to how strong this bounce is. if we break the channel it's probably Wave-B (~10300).
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this fits better (I copied too much in the last one), so it could very well be the end of A.
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Almost hit channel bottom - it doesn't have to but I think it will before the bounce
Channel is drawn as accurately as I can, so I'm fairly confident it hasn't hit it yet.
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9085 is the exact price on BitMex.
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I redid the fib time, because I'd originally done it on the 1h chart, so it was a bit off. Here is the time that AB=C exactly, draw on the 5m.
Target at that time would be 9050 (isn't going to necessarily be perfect, but I've seen it come very close to it).
Target at that time would be 9050 (isn't going to necessarily be perfect, but I've seen it come very close to it).
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I looked at some more Wave-C's, and I think this bounce really will be too soon for Wave-B to being, but I guess we will see. Here is another pattern I found that I think resembles what we're seeing much more closely, the end should be C=AB at around 7150 if this is the case.
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The reason i don't like using chart patterns copied from other Waves are that they look so similar depending on how much to stretch them. This is another possibility. This would make Wave-C extremely bearish and I'm hoping it's not the case - it would go along with the diametric idea much better, so it is a possibility. It would make the first bounce at about 8k, lining up with a trendline.
Be careful here.
Be careful here.
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One more attempt, less catastrophic and much more balanced. This puts the end of C at 138.2% of Wave-A, and ending at C=AB. This makes sense to me, we should have a bounce shortly like was expected, and one more larger wave down, approximately in this fashion.
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If the above does happen, I think I will lean towards the diametric idea being the correct one though - this cut will be passed the 61.8% fib for the upmove, and Wave-2 rarely crosses that (in some rare cases where it does, Wave-2 MUST end at it or above). If Wave-C of this correction ends above the 61.8%, preferable only the 38.2% fib, we are looking great for this being impulsive. Probably won't be able to tell until Wave-C ends though, unfortunately.
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I still think 9k is the bounce point here - 10k will be hopefully where it bounces to (top of the small channel) and then we resume the downmove until C = AB (does anyone actually read this? XD).
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Should be coming into the final drop before Wave-4 guys, not sure if there will be more up before it, but when we bounce it should be a bit more significant.
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Or end of Wave-A, either way a bounce is imminent.
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Probably an unpopular opinion judging from crypto chatroom, this really could be the end of the correction.
I think 9k Is still going to happen, but I'm not convinced we are going farther down yet. There were 5 waves in Wave-C we have seen - it's a very good possibility this is the end. We need no now break the 0-B trendline in less time than C took to form. Will post a chart with the goal, if that happens, we're on our way up.
I think 9k Is still going to happen, but I'm not convinced we are going farther down yet. There were 5 waves in Wave-C we have seen - it's a very good possibility this is the end. We need no now break the 0-B trendline in less time than C took to form. Will post a chart with the goal, if that happens, we're on our way up.
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Once we bounce, if we can break the yellow line before the vertical red line, we will go up further.
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And this was the full correction - not just Wave-A of the correction.
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I see that dashed blue line as a major resistance though, so that will be the first indicator of whether or not we will break it in time.
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Your guess is as good as mine as to whether bottom is actually in, but we barely missed my channel bottom and we haven't even broken this green trendline... so...
Still hope for 9k :).
Still hope for 9k :).
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Although, not much.
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Something I just noticed, is that you can clearly see the waves on the daily in the A & B portion, as well as 1-2-3, but not 4 and 5. Be careful until we get above 10k, we may still have 5 yet to come
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Honestly, pretty convincing bounce so far.
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Just an update - I'm long now, I believe this is Wave-B of the larger correction on BTC and we are heading up.
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And again to flip flop on this - Looking again at the last bull run top, the momentum indicator started getting huge amplitudes, much like we are seeing now. The overall pattern is very similar, and the C-Wave extend to the larger channel bottom I had. We probably aren't done, really. But I think we are in Wave-4 of this correction then, which is going to be a sideways motion between maybe 9 and 10k for a week or so, assuming the pattern is that similar. Not much more to go on at this point - no divergences, no trendlines that jump out as overly exciting right now, I don't have access to MAs anymore on my chart, but I'm assuming they are kind weaving in and out of each other and converging, which we are going to bounce up and down between.
Will post the copied pattern chart here... the outcome here can be totally different of course, but the momentum indicator and RSI as well looks very similar in character to the ATH on higher TFs. Too bad.
Will post the copied pattern chart here... the outcome here can be totally different of course, but the momentum indicator and RSI as well looks very similar in character to the ATH on higher TFs. Too bad.
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Will update again when a direction seems more clear, and hopefully not just with my waffling thoughts.
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Having said, the top of the bullrun really doesn't look like a flat, like this correction does, but the momentum indicator makes me think the size of the correction may be similar at least.
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One thing to add to the impulsive idea - I've thought a lot about the larger BTC chart and how to count it's waves, and while I still can't find out a good count, one thing I did notice was how different the left red box was in character to the green box. The Red box looks clearly impulsive, it's almost vertical and has 5 waves. Whereas, the green box, doesn't really have a clear wave structure, and has a slowly increasing parabolic climb. However, since they are so different, I thought that maybe the entire last bullrun was a very bullish corrective wave (bit of a stretch maybe, I know, but running flats can have very bullish B-Waves, or possibly it was an X-Wave).
Looking at the current move up, I think it resembles more closely the very beginning of the BTC impulsive series, and we may be in a similar situation.
Just a thought, could still be a corrective wave, or this idea might be totally ridiculous, but it makes some sense to me.
One thing to add to the impulsive idea - I've thought a lot about the larger BTC chart and how to count it's waves, and while I still can't find out a good count, one thing I did notice was how different the left red box was in character to the green box. The Red box looks clearly impulsive, it's almost vertical and has 5 waves. Whereas, the green box, doesn't really have a clear wave structure, and has a slowly increasing parabolic climb. However, since they are so different, I thought that maybe the entire last bullrun was a very bullish corrective wave (bit of a stretch maybe, I know, but running flats can have very bullish B-Waves, or possibly it was an X-Wave).
Looking at the current move up, I think it resembles more closely the very beginning of the BTC impulsive series, and we may be in a similar situation.
Just a thought, could still be a corrective wave, or this idea might be totally ridiculous, but it makes some sense to me.
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Current move up resembling the blue box, or the wave cycle after it is what I meant to say. Gives me a bit of hope we are in Wave-1 anyways.
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Waiting for some confirmation on this being Wave-B instead of Wave-4, we currently have rejected off of the major diagonal cutting through AB and the 2-4 trendline in the upmove so far, so I am not convinced yet. It is possible, though, this has been a a pretty strong move up, however, the stoch is still maxed on 2-4 which makes me wonder if we will have another move down first.
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Considering the possibility that the C wave is actually a diametric (7 waves instead of 5) and we have some more down. Really can't give an accurate price for it though, the green box is about all I can say (just not crossing the lower white trendline, basically)
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Well, I just became aware of older price data for BTC going back to 2011. This will change absolutely everything. At first glance, I now think there is little to no chance that this is impulsive for BTC. I'll work on a proper full chart count though and update once I have a more solid understanding. Makes sense now why some of the counts seemed so... imperfect I guess.
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Looks like we're playing out what I was nervous about - that Wave-C hadn't completed yet. Target is the lower one, probably around 7300 we should get a bounce. Will show a chart shortly.
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8766 or 7300 anyways. Trendline put it at 8766, but I don't think that'll hold.
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I won't be surprised actually if it just actually does the 100% of A Fib, so 8975. I'm probably being far too bearish with that guess above. I'll be longing right around the dashed line though, whatever price it makes it to.
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Using discretion of course - it's a good time to long, but if it bounces now then I would think there's more down coming.
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~7850 is the 38.2% fib of the run up - that'll be a good level to watch for also.
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Just noticed this - not 100% perfect, but very nearly.
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Potential bounce point within the next 2 hours... we are approaching C=AB if this is still Wave-C. Blue dashed line by where we currently are.
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Would be nice if it flash dumped to make the gartley a thing, though.
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This is Wave-B... it's almost Wave-C of it, should be going up momentarily, finally see it. Looking at ~9500 as the potential bottom before we climb.
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Shouldn't say that so definitively, It has a strong likelihood of going into Wave-C shortly. A=B time if this is Wave-B right now.
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Another possible option is that Wave-C is much longer than I originally thought, was We are only in Wave-3 of Wave-C... will be able to tell by the bounce though.
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The possibility for this Wave, assuming it is still C, may look like the following
Which is the the downmove in Wave-C so far, copied and stretched to fit what we're currently seeing (I'm grasping at straws a bit right now as I tend to do when a big move is about to happen... so please use your discretion and only use my charts as possibilities).
Which is the the downmove in Wave-C so far, copied and stretched to fit what we're currently seeing (I'm grasping at straws a bit right now as I tend to do when a big move is about to happen... so please use your discretion and only use my charts as possibilities).
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If something that bearish happens, this is more than likely the diametric idea.
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Think I finally know what's going on, going to make a new idea.
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Doubtful of this idea now as it is, however a much larger diametric on BTCs chart may be forming, but has a few years left until we can tell. Please see my other idea here, as these ideas are all posibilities and use BLX historical BTC data so I can get a reasonable count finally.
Ideas here:
Ideas here:
Trade closed manually
I may have gone too low on my Wave-A guess, will be able to tell hopefully by how strong of a bounce we get whether it's Wave-B or not.