Victor.Y.F
Long

To be clear I'm an optimism and I take this as a long

Today, I'm showing you guys shanghai composite             index chart which is measured by DXY             . I'm not calling the end of world or something pessimism. As we can see, the index is lack of the 7th. swing before touching down ideal inflection zone. Last week China CPI             data fallen to 1.8%. Now the CPI             tends to be falling lower which is too low for achieving GDP target. We got clearly warning from Deputy governor of the people's bank of China Mr. Yigang. We got USDCNY             weekly closed high enough to break out for it's final target around 7.2 (head- shoulder PO 6.0-6.6-7.2). It's going to be ugly for global indexes when it breaks out. I'm feeling something familiar in the market before last year's striking. A squeezing is incoming again. Take care.
Comment: SPX500 measured by DXY
snapshot
Comment: Be patient this cycle is a 2001 positive cycle but not like 2008 cycle.
snapshot
Comment: Nasdaq new high gold rising and DXY compensation. Looks like everything is going well...... Before renminbi strikes again.
Comment: There is no turning point without capital squeezing and volitality and extreme speculation sentiment. (Check out those fibs they're adjusted finely.)
snapshot
Comment: time window 0310- 0710
Comment: Kiwi is crashing, by the way, as a risk on leading currency is at risk off mode now.
Comment: SPX/DXY is at 21.5 now.
Comment: For those who are singing long songs, this is still bearish.
snapshot
Comment: We now have Renminbi striking as predicted but the market isn't moving yet. it's very very suspicious that indexes are breaking out to new highs. Before FRB rising rates second time, we could see some DXY pullback for a bounce off from 21.3 level.
Comment: A kindness warning. Don't buy it! A shares is like our old slogan that "using cold water for boiling frogs", would you like to be that frog?
Comment: It is beginning.
Comment: After Brexit from Jul. 2016 to Dec. 2016 the weighted JPY is weakening for 6 months already. NOW everybody saw it with the last impulse. For me it's an alert. Be careful with stocks markets now it's not sustainable without BOJ.
Comment: From my point of view, the 7th. swing is an healthy wave for reaching 2% inflation target and a big chance to buy stocks at bottom. I'm waiting for this crashing for a long time and also China social funds ( retirement funds money) is waiting for this bottom like an hungry predator.
Comment: Today we have confirmed that Renminbi will be tighten in 2017 and should rise rates in the next year.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-set-slower-growth-tighter-policy-2017-government-101536655--business.html
This will be bottomed between 24-25 and DXY should be weakening from there to form a real overheat phase. I think we now have had a stagflation phase already for 20 months first and an overheat after it because FRB rising rates and they inverted inflation. In the overheat phase A shares will rise to pullback about 30% of the collapsing like 2008 crashing because it's inflation sensitive till the China inflation is high enough to hike. Also if the weighted JPY hikes before Renminbi then it's over too. After the Renminbi hike or weighted JPY hike, A shares will go to sleep for 4-5 years to form very very long term stagflation phase. 7 years each, and 1 year lasting. How we called it in English? "impotence"?
Comment: This is NOT a signal.
snapshot
Comment: The first round inflations are very high with Renminbi's hike, about 8%- 10%. You should be ready for the huge rising price in China with interests higher.
Comment: After the MLF, PBOC raised SLF (short-term lending facility 1D,7D,1M) by 0.1%, ( 1D by 0.35%) the Renminbi 10Y bonds market is falling and the interests going higher, a tightening among those big banks happens. It's very soon that the long term interests shall rise and we should have a rising cycle starts form Spring 2017. It's a very good sign of the A shares and the global inflations.
snapshot
Comment: A warning !!! Renminbi is gonna collapse in March!!! We now know in the meeting PBOC is showing the weakness again and refused to hike. CFETS, SDR basket, BIS basket, are all near the edge of Abyss!!! Be careful! Sell all of your A shares !!!
Comment: Horizon breaking out, 28-35-42, may go to 49, could be slow but after US dollar hiking pause, major wave.
Comment: There's a sign of the Chinese speculators are piling into buying A shares now. This is the bad sentiments from our analysis. We suggest taking all profits and waiting for the pull back before the August close. Our prediction of Renminbi's hike is still valid.
Comment: New evidence is showing that weighted Yen rising and inflation rising won’t hurt SPX500 and DAX30. If we look back 2010 when the same situation happened the A shares is topping after several Yuan’s hikes. Be careful here, China market may slowly go down with hikes. In fact, China should do something like the USA at this point for supporting the stock market but I doubt it.
The DXY weakness is still supporting this chart but chose your sectors wisely in a condition where may be Yuan’s hikes. (Miners but not Maotai)
Comment: New evidence is supporting Yuan's hike soon, please choose your sectors wisely... this index is still going higher with banks, miners, industrials, chemical materials, core inflations...
Comment: Bearish now, only hike can save it, but I doubt it.
Comment: Bearish now, only hike can save it, but I doubt it.
Thank you for your likes!
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