I'm not 100% sure if the term symmetrical triangle applies to the current situation in XLM. The problem here is that the coin has no relevant history even on the log chart since it went up so high recently. But there is a clear triangle shape and more often than not you can count A-B-C-D-E... and F will be the point where the symmetrical triangle breaks out from the apex of the triangle resuming the direction that it was coming from before the symmetrical triangle developed.
The direction of the breakout is actually not 100% clear. The symmetrical triangle is a continuation pattern but also a consolidation / compression phase which can in theory break out both ways. So in theory you could catch the price on a breakout (which can be a false breakout). I think the risk reward of going long now is reasonable as i drew into the chart with a target and a stop loss. that stop loss might be too large. But still it comes with a risk reward of more that 3 so any closer stop will do as well.
Head over to Bulkowski for a reference in traditional markets and you find that actually the triangle has 54% probability of breaking out to the upside and breaks on average at 75% way to the apex which is indicated by the red dashed line. You see the pattern runs late already. the target after a (successful) breakout is reached 66% of the time. Bulkowski warns about throwbacks. Last but not least we can confirm that we indeed have a symmetrical triangle by looking at the declining volume leading to the apex. This is a problem. I drew in the Bittrex chart for having the history price movements on it as Binance only opened in late 2017 but since then Binance got all the volume and Bittrex dried out. On Binance on the other hand the volume is rising in the recent months.
Alright so the volume criteria can not really be decided. The recommendation can only be wait for a breakout with volume and act on it. The statistics and my gut feeling would attest a slightly higher probability of a breakout to the upside.
The direction of the breakout is actually not 100% clear. The symmetrical triangle is a continuation pattern but also a consolidation / compression phase which can in theory break out both ways. So in theory you could catch the price on a breakout (which can be a false breakout). I think the risk reward of going long now is reasonable as i drew into the chart with a target and a stop loss. that stop loss might be too large. But still it comes with a risk reward of more that 3 so any closer stop will do as well.
Head over to Bulkowski for a reference in traditional markets and you find that actually the triangle has 54% probability of breaking out to the upside and breaks on average at 75% way to the apex which is indicated by the red dashed line. You see the pattern runs late already. the target after a (successful) breakout is reached 66% of the time. Bulkowski warns about throwbacks. Last but not least we can confirm that we indeed have a symmetrical triangle by looking at the declining volume leading to the apex. This is a problem. I drew in the Bittrex chart for having the history price movements on it as Binance only opened in late 2017 but since then Binance got all the volume and Bittrex dried out. On Binance on the other hand the volume is rising in the recent months.
Alright so the volume criteria can not really be decided. The recommendation can only be wait for a breakout with volume and act on it. The statistics and my gut feeling would attest a slightly higher probability of a breakout to the upside.