Stellar Lumens XLMBTC Looking for Confluence
Not financial advise. Do your own research. The ideas shared here are the personal opinions of the BitDoctor team. Trade at your risk.
Oh where oh where is Lumens going? So much news coming from the Lumens team. Recently, Lumens calls Tron a scam (basically) and doing whatever they can to prop up the price at this CRITICAL LEVEL.
Speaking of Critical Level... does this bounce, bounce, bounce look familiar? Because if you've been in this market for a while, the bounce should be very familiar. Bitcoin did it at $6000 all year long. Then... it broke. The moon boys were getting demolished and, well, it was sad to watch the destruction ensue. Let's try and get ahead of this one. As always, risk management is key and know when you're wrong. Here's my basis for this trade:
1. Break down below 2875/2900 for about 2 weeks then a heavy rebound.
2. 4 times a reattempt was made to break 2900. Eventually, probability has historically shown, this will break and become resistance.
If we break 2900 with confidence... where are we heading? We look for confluence. Most important levels I can see here are around the 1750 level but quite honestly, there's a devastating 500 satoshi level that would be absolute worst case scenario.
Let me qualify this a bit. I am bearish in this market. Heavily bearish. This does not mean that 500 will hit. In fact, it's unlikely, even though there's confluence at that level. I see 1750-2000 being much more likely.
There is a chance this trade will be wrong. I am not saying to short XLM. I am simply saying to set a stop loss around 2875 if you are in it.It's on shaky ground right now and there's a good chance it will fall through this support (highlighted in magenta) and will stick around there for a while.
I threw the volume profile there mostly to prove to you where the most agreed price lies. 468 satoshis. I do see the support at 1700 on the volume provile though. The fact that XLM flew through 1700-2500 last December tells me there will be a magnet to try and fill that trading zone a bit.
Oh where oh where is Lumens going? So much news coming from the Lumens team. Recently, Lumens calls Tron a scam (basically) and doing whatever they can to prop up the price at this CRITICAL LEVEL.
Speaking of Critical Level... does this bounce, bounce, bounce look familiar? Because if you've been in this market for a while, the bounce should be very familiar. Bitcoin did it at $6000 all year long. Then... it broke. The moon boys were getting demolished and, well, it was sad to watch the destruction ensue. Let's try and get ahead of this one. As always, risk management is key and know when you're wrong. Here's my basis for this trade:
1. Break down below 2875/2900 for about 2 weeks then a heavy rebound.
2. 4 times a reattempt was made to break 2900. Eventually, probability has historically shown, this will break and become resistance.
If we break 2900 with confidence... where are we heading? We look for confluence. Most important levels I can see here are around the 1750 level but quite honestly, there's a devastating 500 satoshi level that would be absolute worst case scenario.
Let me qualify this a bit. I am bearish in this market. Heavily bearish. This does not mean that 500 will hit. In fact, it's unlikely, even though there's confluence at that level. I see 1750-2000 being much more likely.
There is a chance this trade will be wrong. I am not saying to short XLM. I am simply saying to set a stop loss around 2875 if you are in it.It's on shaky ground right now and there's a good chance it will fall through this support (highlighted in magenta) and will stick around there for a while.
I threw the volume profile there mostly to prove to you where the most agreed price lies. 468 satoshis. I do see the support at 1700 on the volume provile though. The fact that XLM flew through 1700-2500 last December tells me there will be a magnet to try and fill that trading zone a bit.
Trade active:
Continuing to keep an eye on XLM. It's holding right at 3000 still.... moving sideways. I'm seeing a potential push to the upside but the Risk vs Reward just isn't good enough right now to take the buy.
Trade active:
Just a quick update for you all - We're still under 3000 and haven't seen the rebound. It might still happen but still looking at 2900 and holding that level for anyone holding XLM.
Trade active:
Still looking at the chances for a push down getting smaller and smaller here. The market as a whole is doing fairly well so far this year, so things might be going in the upward direction. Here's an updated chart showing a wider view with the recent price action after the bounce:
Trade closed manually:
Bullish Divergence and potential pivot found.
Trade closed at 2962.
Trade closed at 2962.