petrreo
Long

Monero's growth channel ; XMV fork and All time High

BITTREX:XMRBTC   Monero / Bitcoin
Hi people!
MONERO NEVER CEASED TO GROW in relation to Bitcoin .

In long term - it always growths in average speed characterised by a growth channel.
If I would zoom out, You would see that the channel is even more prominent than visible here (However it would be harder to discern the other important - present action)

I always follow this trend to adjust my price expectations. It is easy to follow, and it always paid of to me (especially in mid scale terms)
Or if I express it better - the price fluctuates very predictably around the mid trend-line (blue dots) - already from the year 2016.

By reasons not described here more in detail (analysis of growth in log scale) .. I may expect, that the growth will not cease - at least not till August (and price of 0.045). And maybe, maybe in this August we may see some change in this pattern. (Maybe I could make a chart about my thoughts on that subject?)... So for now, just watch it, whether I am right :-).

So my prediction here in short term?

The All time high ( ATH ) - if it is breached the previous ATH we may shoot up to the second target, it is one scenario. .... I am not sure about that, though.
No idea now how strong will be defence of that price and how attractive will be the fork coming on 14th March.... and also an action on the bitcoin front.

Before that, NOW WE ARE in well published - small ascending triangle (hardly visible on my chart, I know, yet it is there if you zoom in), so I expect that - all combined together
- the attack on the price level of ATH is pretty much secured as a given thing and that should be our target one.
After that, whether we breach ATH price or not, we may see some mid term dip ... however, you know Monero, it will be not for very long :-).

So second scenario is - we secure the first target below ATH , we will fight the bears for a while, and limp down for a while. (depression from this fall should be smaller)
Mar 06
Comment: I will post better version
Apr 21
Comment: So it was the first scenario obviously. And now we are back from depression... gonna attach ATH for the third time?

Don't forget that the XMV fork had been moved from April the 5th to April 30th .... so few days before the fork there might be some additional run-up (Don't expect it on the day of the fork though) ... let's watch and add the overall health of the market. As long as the BTC will not sabotage it .. we are and we will be in pretty bullish market.

If this is true now and will be true in few days time ... we can expect that XMR will be growing from the point of view of both those who trade it against BTC and USD...

This should give strength to XMR to break up ... possibly.

My concerns are related to those trading XMR against USD, if BTC will dip down - it will lead to theirs perception of XMR loosing value - they will try to short it.

In that casye - it is good to wait a little and rebuy it later with higher profit.
Apr 22
Comment: We are back in the blue dotted mid-line.

I will put up my targets to about 0.0349

they will either sell up ... or I will hodl until the fork
Apr 22
Comment: my new update: