Monero's dwindling supply. $10k in 2019 scenario.

BITFINEX:XMRUSD   Monero / U.S. Dollar
Sketch of an idea.
Comment: Made while sleep deprived. The effects of which are quite similar to inebriation.
Comment: "I am fond of telling the tale of the inventor of chess and his patron, the Emperor of China.

In response to the emperor’s offer of a reward for his new beloved game, the inventor asked for a single grain of rice on the first square, two on the second square, four on the third, and so on. The Emperor quickly granted this seemingly benign and humble request.

One version of the story has the emperor going bankrupt as the 63 doublings ultimately totaled 18 million trillion grains of rice. At ten grains of rice per square inch, this requires rice fields covering twice the surface area of the Earth, oceans included. Another version of the story has the inventor losing his head. " - R.Kurzweil
Comment: "It should be pointed out that as the emperor and the inventor went through the first half of the chess board, things were fairly uneventful," Kurzweil continues. "The inventor was given spoonfuls of rice, then bowls of rice, then barrels. By the end of the first half of the chess board, the inventor had accumulated one large field’s worth (4 billion grains), and the emperor did start to take notice."
Comment: To those wondering why Monero won't have the post 2013 bear market of BTC, Monero had no mt.gox and is appearing at a different point on the blockchain adoption curve. Things are moving faster and faster and faster.
Comment: Roger Ver, known as “Bitcoin Jesus” for his evangelical support of the currency during its early years… said his investment in Monero is “substantial” and his biggest in any virtual currency since bitcoin.
Comment: The correction down from $10k is worrisome. It might foreshadow major legislative action against Monero/private specific crypto.
Comment: Mid to late 2019 would correspond to the political drama going on in the White House. Perhaps a candidate will run on crypto and/or crypto will be a significant part of their platform. Who will it be!?
Comment: The market has taken off much faster than anticipated. We're approaching the top of the channel. It will be interesting to see how this develops.
Comment: It's not often you see price breakout of an exponential channel. Impressive!
Comment: Exciting times ahead for Crypto in 2018. I wouldn't be surprised if my chart was too pessimistic.
Comment: Beautiful Bullish momentum in Monero.
Comment: We are at the lower bound of the log trend line. History would indicate that xmr is at a bargain.
Comment: I had a feeling Monero was too cheaply priced by the market.
Comment: Quoted for possible truth:

"It's not about HW wallets or anything, XMR is being price suppressed because big players are accumulating it big time. As someone said smart money is well aware of monero and they want to keep it as much as they can for themselves until inflation is low and they can mark the price way up

Didn't you guys notice we always are the last to pump ? its because pump happen in hierarchical orders, first you get the shittest of the the shitcoins with the wierd names like GROESTLECOIN and so on, then you got noob coins and strange coins and semi good coins, and when smart money has taken dumb money for as much as they can they pump XMR because they need to store their accumulated wealth somewhere, and whats the better place than monero?

Next year, we'll be at 4% inflation, this is bitcoin level now, and then quickly we'll be under bitcoin yearly inflation... this will be the time to mark up the price BIG TIME, I'm talking BTC current level

This is a slow play, this is like poker when you got quad aces and you want to take as much as you can from the noobs, you take your time, you let dumb money bids and buy DRAGONCHAIN and then you put your profit back into XMR.

RINSE and REPEAT until we're at 2-3% inflation and price is above 10K and doesn't come back. "
Comment: Channel hasn't broken yet. DCA time?
Comment: Buy The Dip
Comment: Trendline is broken. We're obviously in a major downtrend, the lower line maybe should be redrawn from the June 2017 low.
Comment: I'm still long term bullish on Monero and continue to expect a $10k target before Tail emission kicks in (2021)
Comment: Wave 4 was deeper than expected and maybe caused by selling pressure after the hard fork ASIC change. Will be exciting to see if the price can return to the channel traced out when this chart was published.


Good chart. I think privacy focused coins will be the story of crypto in 2018.
+3 Reply
It takes BTC +100 years for the last btc to be mined. Monero will end it's initial mining run in 4 years: 2021. Followed by a tail emission that will catch up to the bitcoin supply about 40 years from now.
+2 Reply
You23 You23
@You23, *It might be a little sooner than 40 years. The point remains the same however. Monero's tail emission does not dramatically change the supply side equation given some % of lost coins.
+1 Reply
@You23, If the Government bans this coin due to the anonymity, then it can be worthless :-|
You23 albertwt
@albertwt, The government bans many things that go up in value even after the ban - sometimes because of it
+2 Reply
@You23, yes, that does make sense. I remember Mt. Gox and the most recently Chinese Crypto Exchange ban.
@albertwt, The Governments of the world are not as far as my research shows driven to make the world more transparent. In many cases they try to hide the truth of their dealings and this only becomes more intense when international corporations and investment funds get involved. Most groups need something that is both private but can be audited safely. Monero is designed in a way that greatly reduces the counterparty risk and the long term cost from the potential liability to track coins well past the time youve sold or bought them. The distribution of Monero and the work being done on Korvi will make it a true force to be reckoned with. Coins that will rely on Zeroknowledge instead of ring sigs will be very hard to audit and manage and coins that can be tracked will begin to leave many firms very vulnerable to having their trading methods, finances and personal information exposed to the entire world without anyway of retracting it.
+2 Reply
albertwt Emperor_Penguin
@Emperor_Penguin, Great, that does make sense mate.
Thanks for the explanations :-)
+1 Reply
You've said it yourself - getting the time axis correct is the hardest part. Thanks for the recent updates, I love watching these charts unfold.
+1 Reply
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