Didn't want to post this until it broke above the earnings date AVWAP because, according to Brian Shannon, you don't really have confirmation until you trade above it with some strength.
I'm currently long $110C for 6/16 @ 0.53
Daily annotations showing a lot of bullish signs.
- Bounce off of year-long trendline support
- Big accumulation volume at the EOM candle
- Weak volume on earnings AVWAP/Saudi production cut news rejection
- Higher than avg buying volume after higher low
- RSI divergence playing out, higher highs, higher lows
- Volume delta turning bullish- MACD cross and confirmation
- Break of earnings AVWAP
- Also broke out of a falling wedge pattern today (not shown)
Hourly shows a few itself.
- Series of higher highs and higher lows
- Defense of buyer's average AVWAP
- Defense of 32 EMA and 129 EMA cross.
- Break above and bull flag over horizontal resistance
The first price target is around $110/$111, that would be TP1. Second price target would be the gap just under $114. If you buy more time than me, you could even have a PT of the high @ $119. Depends on the macro environment and what JPow says. I am looking to cover before that event on Wednesday.
I am expecting a pullback in the next two days, just to check either the earnings AVWAP or one of the EMAs. Needs to clear up some overbought conditions on the hourly, and the MACD and is trying to roll a bit. Will see if it's worthy of a dipbuy if that plays out, might roll the strike or expiry idk yet.
Line in the sand is a failure to defend EMAs. If we break back below earnings AVWAP or the 32 EMA on the 1hr, I will probably cover for B/E and try again but buy more time, see where the 129 EMA and buyer's average is for a reentry.
Watching DXY and CL1! closely to see if there is a catalyst either way for a big fundamental move, but right now I am relying on technicals.
I'm currently long $110C for 6/16 @ 0.53
Daily annotations showing a lot of bullish signs.
- Bounce off of year-long trendline support
- Big accumulation volume at the EOM candle
- Weak volume on earnings AVWAP/Saudi production cut news rejection
- Higher than avg buying volume after higher low
- RSI divergence playing out, higher highs, higher lows
- Volume delta turning bullish- MACD cross and confirmation
- Break of earnings AVWAP
- Also broke out of a falling wedge pattern today (not shown)
Hourly shows a few itself.
- Series of higher highs and higher lows
- Defense of buyer's average AVWAP
- Defense of 32 EMA and 129 EMA cross.
- Break above and bull flag over horizontal resistance
The first price target is around $110/$111, that would be TP1. Second price target would be the gap just under $114. If you buy more time than me, you could even have a PT of the high @ $119. Depends on the macro environment and what JPow says. I am looking to cover before that event on Wednesday.
I am expecting a pullback in the next two days, just to check either the earnings AVWAP or one of the EMAs. Needs to clear up some overbought conditions on the hourly, and the MACD and is trying to roll a bit. Will see if it's worthy of a dipbuy if that plays out, might roll the strike or expiry idk yet.
Line in the sand is a failure to defend EMAs. If we break back below earnings AVWAP or the 32 EMA on the 1hr, I will probably cover for B/E and try again but buy more time, see where the 129 EMA and buyer's average is for a reentry.
Watching DXY and CL1! closely to see if there is a catalyst either way for a big fundamental move, but right now I am relying on technicals.
Comment:
Dip buy tomorrow at 107.50 would be gorgeous.
Comment:
Iran deal rumors dumped oil and then it got right back up, watching to see if we close today above earnings vwap
Comment:
Line in the sand for XOM is ~106.60 for me. Below that, you have to reassess.
Comment:
I'm out, stopped for breakeven where i said i would, just cant seem to trade over earnings vwap