I'd error on the side of this being a breakout, despite the divergence we are seeing. Divergence can take a while to play out. On a monthly chart with a very long (55 periods), it could take a couple years even.
Why I favor bulls? Japanese and emerging market capital flows. As their currencies continue to weaken vs the USD, they will continue to seek yield in safe large cap.
Also we have a multi-year .
It is not unrealistic to think this company could add an additional $400 billion in market cap.
Global equities increased over $10 trillion in 2013 alone. Apple shed over $200 billion (then gained some back).
Of course, if emerging markets can make a recovery in 2014, that may limit the potential of the breakout.
However I do not see much in the way of currency strength for emerging markets in 2014.
If anything, a consolidation of the weakness we have seen in 2013.
This is about the safest stock you could ever own, so when technical show , you better go with it.