649bruno
Short

Have Energy Prices Found A Bottom? Weekly View Suggests No

AMEX:XOP   SPDR S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION ETF
18 0 5
If my art teacher from 1961 (Junior High School) would look at my contribution above, he would probably flunk me for cramming too much information in such a small area. That being said, I have tried to put much information on the chart for you to consider:
This is a chart of XOP-the energy-ETF. I prefer XOP-rather than-XLE-because the high dividends paid by oil             companies keep-XLE higher in price.
The chart above is weekly in time increments and has many negatives.
1. The Ichimoku Cloud is moving down. Prices are trading mostly below the cloud, or trading in the cloud with a downward bias.
2. The 89 week moving average is moving lower.
3. The weekly trading channel is heading down.
4. A 5 impulse wave pattern, follow by 3 A-B-C corrective waves has been completed.
5. Prices are now at a 50% retracement from a previous "lower high".
6. Vortex (middle top indicator) is negative, red over green.

Has energy reached a bottom? The daily chart I reviewed is sideways. But the answer may be found in the weekly chart: Weekly is stronger than daily.
I do not see sustainable energy price rises based on this WEEKLY chart.
What would change my opinion?
If we are at a bottom, a trading range with an upward bias would have to be established. Prices would have to trade above the Ichimoku Cloud . The Cloud would have to start rising. The border of the Cloud would have to turn from red to green. The 89 week moving average would have to start rising. I would look for these conditions on a daily chart first with the weekly chart to improve.

Overall, XOP-is indicating a downward bias in energy prices. The inverse of this is trouble for large banks as they struggle with non-performing loans to energy companies. The jury is still out. This "trading range bias" will take the rest of 2016 to decide. As of today I am NEGATIVE on energy prices. I believe they will drift lower.
My apologies to my art teacher from 1961. Good luck to all of you. Don.
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