* Not trading advice **
Let's consider what the future holds for Ripple by first looking at the overall crypto market.
There are three dominant memes, each of which I believe is overblown:
"The investor class is making big moves into Bitcoin , price headed to 350k plus"
The first part appears to be true, and one indicator is that Bitcoin price appreciated unusually fast from early April to late June, much more rapidly that was expected based on historic trends. Facebook's Libra and all the financial instruments that relate to crypto have been very helpful for Bitcoin's price.
I saw lots of ideas saying that in the near term Bitcoin would surge to 18k or 20k and test ATH . Also lots of ideas arguing that Bitcoin will head to 350k or more by the end of this cycle, based on drawing trend lines onto the Bitcoin log chart and assuming the pattern will play out the same way in the future.
This Bitcoin correction, which looks fairly normal, has convinced me that there isn't as much rocket fuel under Bitcoin as people have been saying. Overall, I expect the next Bitcoin ATH to be 50k+, but it may take longer to get there than people think.
"Alts are dead"
I am going to distinguish three types of crypto assets. Bitcoin is the king, Ethereum , Litecoin, Ripple and a few others are "majors", and the rest are "minors".
We saw the minors lose nearly all their value during the recent crypto-apocalypse. I think the lesson here is not that alts are dead, but that people are going to be more cautious about trading or investing in the minors. Bitcoin and the majors should do well barring some enormous black swan event.
"Ripple sucks/is dead"
I am going to sidestep the libertarian critique of Ripple. It does have some merit, but violating libertarian ideals doesn't mean Ripple is doomed. In fact, it might be here to stay for the long run.
Overall, I think that the market is more normal than people think and that the most optimistic and pessimistic predictions about Bitcoin and Ripple price are very unlikely to play out. The minors are unlikely to shine until the next big mania phase.
*Based on log price chart pattern XRPUSD is going to $35*
Only if Bitcoin sees a thrity-fold increase in price, and that is not happening anytime soon!
Let's turn to the big questions surrounding Ripple.
Question #1: Will we see a price surge and when will it happen?
We certainly should if the crypto market is more or less normal. Looking back over past charts, it appears that the BTC value of alts generally spikes in three circumstances. First, toward the latter end of a Bitcon mania phase (see Dec 17 to Jan 18). Second, as Bitcoin is correcting with fairly low volatility sideways price movement (ex., mid Sept 2018 and May 2019), and third when Bitcoin craters then it and alts generally surge up together. Alts don't do well when Bitcoin is surging up or down outside of a mania phase or Bitcoin cratering.
I think the next XRP run is going to happen fairly soon, perhaps within two weeks or so. The current price action seems very similar to where we were in Sept 2018. Some people are looking at when XRP cratered prior to the huge mania run in Dec 2017, but I don't believe we are pre-mania phase, making that comparison more tenuous.
In the near term, the XRPBTC and XRPUSD price are heading up to challenge important resistances and may get there around the same time. If that occurs and they break through XRP should moon.
And there is a beautiful RSI bullish divergence on the daily.
Question #2: If Ripple spikes, how high will it go?
This is difficult because we can't assume that Ripple will spike to the same degree as in prior runs. My plan is to work off of a more conservative estimate.
Bitcoin currently has 10 times the marketcap of Ripple. So if Bitcoin is going to range sideways until the alt party is over, that places a limit on how high the XRPBTC value can go. No chance Ripple is going to approach Bitcoin's marketcap. That still leaves a fair amount of room for Ripple to head up.
My thought is that Ripple might make about 8000 satoshi, which puts the price right under the ichimoku cloud on the weekly chart. If Bitcoin is valued at about 10k, that means $.80 Ripple, very reasonable. If XRP falls off the 2800 sat support then all bets are off. I have a hard time believing that will happen because of what the collapse of major coin prices would mean for market confidence as a whole.
This is my first idea! Please let me know if you like it!
Let's consider what the future holds for Ripple by first looking at the overall crypto market.
There are three dominant memes, each of which I believe is overblown:
"The investor class is making big moves into Bitcoin , price headed to 350k plus"
The first part appears to be true, and one indicator is that Bitcoin price appreciated unusually fast from early April to late June, much more rapidly that was expected based on historic trends. Facebook's Libra and all the financial instruments that relate to crypto have been very helpful for Bitcoin's price.
I saw lots of ideas saying that in the near term Bitcoin would surge to 18k or 20k and test ATH . Also lots of ideas arguing that Bitcoin will head to 350k or more by the end of this cycle, based on drawing trend lines onto the Bitcoin log chart and assuming the pattern will play out the same way in the future.
This Bitcoin correction, which looks fairly normal, has convinced me that there isn't as much rocket fuel under Bitcoin as people have been saying. Overall, I expect the next Bitcoin ATH to be 50k+, but it may take longer to get there than people think.
"Alts are dead"
I am going to distinguish three types of crypto assets. Bitcoin is the king, Ethereum , Litecoin, Ripple and a few others are "majors", and the rest are "minors".
We saw the minors lose nearly all their value during the recent crypto-apocalypse. I think the lesson here is not that alts are dead, but that people are going to be more cautious about trading or investing in the minors. Bitcoin and the majors should do well barring some enormous black swan event.
"Ripple sucks/is dead"
I am going to sidestep the libertarian critique of Ripple. It does have some merit, but violating libertarian ideals doesn't mean Ripple is doomed. In fact, it might be here to stay for the long run.
Overall, I think that the market is more normal than people think and that the most optimistic and pessimistic predictions about Bitcoin and Ripple price are very unlikely to play out. The minors are unlikely to shine until the next big mania phase.
*Based on log price chart pattern XRPUSD is going to $35*
Only if Bitcoin sees a thrity-fold increase in price, and that is not happening anytime soon!
Let's turn to the big questions surrounding Ripple.
Question #1: Will we see a price surge and when will it happen?
We certainly should if the crypto market is more or less normal. Looking back over past charts, it appears that the BTC value of alts generally spikes in three circumstances. First, toward the latter end of a Bitcon mania phase (see Dec 17 to Jan 18). Second, as Bitcoin is correcting with fairly low volatility sideways price movement (ex., mid Sept 2018 and May 2019), and third when Bitcoin craters then it and alts generally surge up together. Alts don't do well when Bitcoin is surging up or down outside of a mania phase or Bitcoin cratering.
I think the next XRP run is going to happen fairly soon, perhaps within two weeks or so. The current price action seems very similar to where we were in Sept 2018. Some people are looking at when XRP cratered prior to the huge mania run in Dec 2017, but I don't believe we are pre-mania phase, making that comparison more tenuous.
In the near term, the XRPBTC and XRPUSD price are heading up to challenge important resistances and may get there around the same time. If that occurs and they break through XRP should moon.
And there is a beautiful RSI bullish divergence on the daily.
Question #2: If Ripple spikes, how high will it go?
This is difficult because we can't assume that Ripple will spike to the same degree as in prior runs. My plan is to work off of a more conservative estimate.
Bitcoin currently has 10 times the marketcap of Ripple. So if Bitcoin is going to range sideways until the alt party is over, that places a limit on how high the XRPBTC value can go. No chance Ripple is going to approach Bitcoin's marketcap. That still leaves a fair amount of room for Ripple to head up.
My thought is that Ripple might make about 8000 satoshi, which puts the price right under the ichimoku cloud on the weekly chart. If Bitcoin is valued at about 10k, that means $.80 Ripple, very reasonable. If XRP falls off the 2800 sat support then all bets are off. I have a hard time believing that will happen because of what the collapse of major coin prices would mean for market confidence as a whole.
This is my first idea! Please let me know if you like it!
