After tagging our buy range of $0.86-$0.91, XRP (and the market generally) has rebounded. Was that the full A-B-C correction? E-Wave analysis suggested the correction could have cut deeper to around $0.80. It still might. We don't know, and we aren't afraid to say that - today's post will summarize our thoughts on why that is and what we are looking for in the coming days.
We have seen that this chart, between the fib retracement levels, the fib channels, and the fractal overlay, has been very accurate in predicting the timing and direction of moves. But we have reached a point in the chart where I am not exactly sure where we are with respect to the fractal. The fractal strongly suggests that there will be an upcoming month or so of sideways rangebound trading. What we want to know, is what is that range? Are we in it now, or will those triple bottoms be at a slightly lower level?
Today's chart looks at the 2 hour bar timeframe. We did this because the fractal was created from a two hour chart, and we want to compare moves as close as possible. Today, we clearly see, circled in blue, a V shaped bottom (something of an inverse H&S). We also circled in blue, above that, what we believe to be the same "move" on our current chart and the fractal overlay. The question we need to see answered, is was today's V bottom the real bottom for the range we are about to trade in? The arrows show that this bottom will come in several times - it came in 3 times last time. Today may have been the first.
We find this relevant for two reasons:
1. Based on the fractal, we can anticipate that each bottom that comes in will do so at roughly the same low, so if we are correct and this was the first of three, then entry points around $0.86-$0.91 don't need to "worry" about a possible move to $0.80. We still think $0.80 is possible, however, as we are not completely convinced that this was the bottom of the ABC correction.
2. Since the timelines can be a bit off, the completion of 3 of these V bottoms should signal a move to the upside is coming, perhaps to around $1.35. It will help us identify "where we are" in the fractal as it plays out. A second V bottom at these same levels will confirm we are correct. Alternatively, as stated above, a lower move and V bottom at around $0.78 would suggest that today's move was a bit of a headfake, and that we need 3 bottoms at or around $0.78-$0.82.
One thing to note is that on the May 17 2017 - Jan 4 2018 XRP chart (which is the fractal overlay) these 3 bottoms do not close below the .236 fib retracement level for the retracement off the May 17 2017 high. The .236 fib retracement off of this recent April 14 2021 high and its corresponding low is...you guessed it, $0.86. To me, this is the strongest indicator that if we are seeing this V pattern recovery with lows just like we did last time as shown in the fractal overlay, so long as the daily close (and in fact the entire trading range) is above the .236 retracement level, then we should lean toward that being the range where those 3 lows will come in.
We will know more if/when the second similar bottom hits. We do not expect a meaningful break to the upside, and anything under roughly $1.09 is just "ranging" to us at this point. Price above $1.09 will warrant re-evaluation.
Please post requests for specific XRP or other coin analysis, or we will just keep putting out our daily XRP chart (which we don't mind!)
Best,
Buster
We have seen that this chart, between the fib retracement levels, the fib channels, and the fractal overlay, has been very accurate in predicting the timing and direction of moves. But we have reached a point in the chart where I am not exactly sure where we are with respect to the fractal. The fractal strongly suggests that there will be an upcoming month or so of sideways rangebound trading. What we want to know, is what is that range? Are we in it now, or will those triple bottoms be at a slightly lower level?
Today's chart looks at the 2 hour bar timeframe. We did this because the fractal was created from a two hour chart, and we want to compare moves as close as possible. Today, we clearly see, circled in blue, a V shaped bottom (something of an inverse H&S). We also circled in blue, above that, what we believe to be the same "move" on our current chart and the fractal overlay. The question we need to see answered, is was today's V bottom the real bottom for the range we are about to trade in? The arrows show that this bottom will come in several times - it came in 3 times last time. Today may have been the first.
We find this relevant for two reasons:
1. Based on the fractal, we can anticipate that each bottom that comes in will do so at roughly the same low, so if we are correct and this was the first of three, then entry points around $0.86-$0.91 don't need to "worry" about a possible move to $0.80. We still think $0.80 is possible, however, as we are not completely convinced that this was the bottom of the ABC correction.
2. Since the timelines can be a bit off, the completion of 3 of these V bottoms should signal a move to the upside is coming, perhaps to around $1.35. It will help us identify "where we are" in the fractal as it plays out. A second V bottom at these same levels will confirm we are correct. Alternatively, as stated above, a lower move and V bottom at around $0.78 would suggest that today's move was a bit of a headfake, and that we need 3 bottoms at or around $0.78-$0.82.
One thing to note is that on the May 17 2017 - Jan 4 2018 XRP chart (which is the fractal overlay) these 3 bottoms do not close below the .236 fib retracement level for the retracement off the May 17 2017 high. The .236 fib retracement off of this recent April 14 2021 high and its corresponding low is...you guessed it, $0.86. To me, this is the strongest indicator that if we are seeing this V pattern recovery with lows just like we did last time as shown in the fractal overlay, so long as the daily close (and in fact the entire trading range) is above the .236 retracement level, then we should lean toward that being the range where those 3 lows will come in.
We will know more if/when the second similar bottom hits. We do not expect a meaningful break to the upside, and anything under roughly $1.09 is just "ranging" to us at this point. Price above $1.09 will warrant re-evaluation.
Please post requests for specific XRP or other coin analysis, or we will just keep putting out our daily XRP chart (which we don't mind!)
Best,
Buster
