Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
Last night was pool league and we got our asses whooped! Worst ever in my 5 years on the team. Life has taught me that when it rains, expect it to pour. Trading isn't going well? Well then how about a flat tire and an ass whooping in pool?! I think that yesterday rustled something deep down in my soul because I woke up less than six hours after going to sleep, around six in the am.
I had a lot to do so I embraced the early wake up. Went out to a nice breakfast, got the nail in my tire fixed, and then went to the gym. Too low on energy to exercise after getting little sleep and drinking too much, so I went straight to the steam room.
Then I took a short nap, hit the charts for a couple hours, went out to my favorite restaurant for dinner and then got a 60 minute massage. The hot springs are closed on Wednesday’s so that was a great replacement to my daily hot springs meditation session.
Broke = Always trying too hard and never doing
Woke = Never trying too hard and always doing
If you never seem to have the time to attend to your mind / body / soul then that is your fault; it is not due to outside circumstances. Taking care of your well being should be a priority and there is always enough time for your priorities.
My results so far for this challenge should end up highlighting a very, very important part of my approach:
Lose small so that you can win big.
Each ~0.1 BTC loss represents an opportunity to win 1 BTC+. 5 - 10 losses can be remedied with 1 solid win. As long as I continue to manage risk properly and learn from my mistakes then I know that the profits will eventually take care of themselves.
My last challenge saw me lose more than 50% of my original starting roll before going on to return +1,000% in less than six months. I have decided that losing less than that to start this challenge would be an objective improvement and validate the progress that I believe I’ve made over the past ~6 months.
Open Positions
Long: XBTM19
*1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%
*1/6/19 SET STOP LOSS at breakeven
Price: $3,727
Projected Risk (due to horizontal support): None. Market stop adjusted to breakeven.
Leverage: 10X
Exposure: $3,541
Margin: 0.957 BTC
Unrealized PnL: +0.0369 BTC
Realised PnL: -0.001 BTC
Long: USDTRY
Price: $5.55804
Projected Risk: 5.66%
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000)
Margin: 0.048 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.06 BTC
Notes: Support holding above the phase 3 trendline is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy bankroll for this challenge.
Long: USDZAR
*1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%. However minimum available to scale out was 8%
*1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + Bearish M MA (30%) + Bearish Cross with S & M MA’s (15%) + P < flat L MA (25% - 50%)
*1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS: Stop loss set at $13.489 for remainder of position.
*1/9/19 ADJUSTED STOP LOSS: Moved stop to $13.64 due to expected support from 200 MA.
Price: $14.48
Projected risk: Market stop set at $13.49
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.06 lots ($6,000)
Margin: 0.0157 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.057 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.068 BTC
Short: SPX500
*1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added
*1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P > S MA (5%) + bullish M MA (30%) + Bullish cross with S & M MA’s (15%) = 50%
Price: $2,472.62
Projected Risk (horizontal resistance at $2,650): 7.17%
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.09 lots ($22,276)
Margin: 0.0586 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.2439 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.129 BTC
Notes: Like seeing the L MA hold as resistance and the doji that is resulting. Resistance at $2,650 holding is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy roll for this challenge.
Closed Positions
Long: USDHUF
*1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA made bullish cross with M MA = 15% added
*1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + P < Bearish M MA (30%) = 35% scaled out
*1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS at $279.33 for remainder of position
*1/8/19 SCALE OUT: Have been waiting for price to move in my favor so that I can decrease exposure due to mistake I made when entering.
*1/9/19 STOPPED OUT
Price: $282.66
Projected Risk: Market stop set at $279.33 | Max calculated risk = 0.1632 BTC
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.96 lots ($96,000)
Realized PnL: -0.1546 BTC
ROI: -0.61%
Short: EURUSD
*1/3/19 Scale out 25% due to close > Long MA
*1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS at 1.1501 for remainder of position
*1/9/19 STOPPED OUT
Price: 1.13387
Projected Risk (horizontal resistance): 1.4%
Leverage: 100:1
Exposure: 0.24 lots ($24,000)
Realized PnL: -0.1098 BTC
ROI: -1.74%
Open Orders
*1/9/19 AMENDED: Stop Market to long 1.645 XBTH19 @ $4,037. Reason for entry is Consensio + that would be TL breakthrough. Tightened stop due to below yesterday’s close and that allowed me to increase the potential exposure and still risk the same.
*1/9/19 CANCELLED Stop Market to long ETHUSD @ $160.20 because Consensio is starting to turn bearish.
Stop Market to short XAUUSD @ $1,274.89. Reason for entry is that would create a lower low and break down parabolic advance.
Stop Market to buy XRPUSD @ $0.528. Reason for entry is Bollinger Band super squeeze on weekly and preference for longs due to r:r + coming of a major area of support + Consensio turning bullish on daily with a Golden Cross.
Watchtower
XRPUSD: In a Bollinger Band super squeeze on the weekly with lower highers and highers lows suggesting upcoming parabolic move either way...a/k/a Jesus Fish Pattern. Symmetrical triangle on daily provides first target of $1.1
BTCUSD: Gap in the visible range volume profile looks like it is begging to get filled. If we close above $4,300 then a return to $5,400 - $6,000 would be my highest probability outcome. Will be strongly considering setting a stop order to add to my long above the daily Parabolic SAR.
ETHUSD: First weekly buy signal since April 2018. Very interested to see how the market reacts to the Constantinople Hard Fork. I think it will be bearish so I am very hesitant about this signal.
ETHBTC: Potential weekly Golden Cross upcoming. Pullback to 33 day MA could represent could entry.
LTCUSD: Close > TL + boundary line of c&h / ascending triangle. Testing top of cloud + bullish kumo twist. I could enter a stop entry now, but I prefer to wait for a close above the daily cloud.
XRPBTC: Incoming death cross following L MA roll over could be setting up ideal entry. However ascending triangle is still in tact and want to wait to enter until we get a close above / below.
XAUUSD: A few daily candles have closed above the trend line from 2016 but when zooming out to the weekly chart it becomes clear that the TL is continuing to hold as resistance, therefore it is still in tact. Daily looks like it is ready to break down at any moment and that is why I will be waiting with stop entry. Consensio is also starting to signal short entries with P < S & M MA while those are making a bearish cross.
USDCAD: Approaching bullish 200 MA while the M MA and L MA posture for death cross.
EURUSD: Consensio turned fully bullish but price is approaching a retest of the 200 MA which is in a strong bear trend.
USDHUF: Consensio turned fully bearish but price is approaching a retest of the 200 MA which is in a strong bull trend.
USDJPY: Attempting to reverse bullish 200 MA with incoming death cross. Weekly is also on the verge of a reversal which indicates that we could be of the precipice of a big trend. Will be looking for large position once symmetrical triangle breaks down with weekly close.
USDRUB: Symmetrical triangle forming above bullish 200 MA that is approaching the price. Also had a recent GGC on the weekly.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
Last night was pool league and we got our asses whooped! Worst ever in my 5 years on the team. Life has taught me that when it rains, expect it to pour. Trading isn't going well? Well then how about a flat tire and an ass whooping in pool?! I think that yesterday rustled something deep down in my soul because I woke up less than six hours after going to sleep, around six in the am.
I had a lot to do so I embraced the early wake up. Went out to a nice breakfast, got the nail in my tire fixed, and then went to the gym. Too low on energy to exercise after getting little sleep and drinking too much, so I went straight to the steam room.
Then I took a short nap, hit the charts for a couple hours, went out to my favorite restaurant for dinner and then got a 60 minute massage. The hot springs are closed on Wednesday’s so that was a great replacement to my daily hot springs meditation session.
Broke = Always trying too hard and never doing
Woke = Never trying too hard and always doing
If you never seem to have the time to attend to your mind / body / soul then that is your fault; it is not due to outside circumstances. Taking care of your well being should be a priority and there is always enough time for your priorities.
My results so far for this challenge should end up highlighting a very, very important part of my approach:
Lose small so that you can win big.
Each ~0.1 BTC loss represents an opportunity to win 1 BTC+. 5 - 10 losses can be remedied with 1 solid win. As long as I continue to manage risk properly and learn from my mistakes then I know that the profits will eventually take care of themselves.
My last challenge saw me lose more than 50% of my original starting roll before going on to return +1,000% in less than six months. I have decided that losing less than that to start this challenge would be an objective improvement and validate the progress that I believe I’ve made over the past ~6 months.
Open Positions
Long: XBTM19
*1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%
*1/6/19 SET STOP LOSS at breakeven
Price: $3,727
Projected Risk (due to horizontal support): None. Market stop adjusted to breakeven.
Leverage: 10X
Exposure: $3,541
Margin: 0.957 BTC
Unrealized PnL: +0.0369 BTC
Realised PnL: -0.001 BTC
Long: USDTRY
Price: $5.55804
Projected Risk: 5.66%
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000)
Margin: 0.048 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.06 BTC
Notes: Support holding above the phase 3 trendline is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy bankroll for this challenge.
Long: USDZAR
*1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%. However minimum available to scale out was 8%
*1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + Bearish M MA (30%) + Bearish Cross with S & M MA’s (15%) + P < flat L MA (25% - 50%)
*1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS: Stop loss set at $13.489 for remainder of position.
*1/9/19 ADJUSTED STOP LOSS: Moved stop to $13.64 due to expected support from 200 MA.
Price: $14.48
Projected risk: Market stop set at $13.49
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.06 lots ($6,000)
Margin: 0.0157 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.057 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.068 BTC
Short: SPX500
*1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added
*1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P > S MA (5%) + bullish M MA (30%) + Bullish cross with S & M MA’s (15%) = 50%
Price: $2,472.62
Projected Risk (horizontal resistance at $2,650): 7.17%
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.09 lots ($22,276)
Margin: 0.0586 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.2439 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.129 BTC
Notes: Like seeing the L MA hold as resistance and the doji that is resulting. Resistance at $2,650 holding is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy roll for this challenge.
Closed Positions
Long: USDHUF
*1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA made bullish cross with M MA = 15% added
*1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + P < Bearish M MA (30%) = 35% scaled out
*1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS at $279.33 for remainder of position
*1/8/19 SCALE OUT: Have been waiting for price to move in my favor so that I can decrease exposure due to mistake I made when entering.
*1/9/19 STOPPED OUT
Price: $282.66
Projected Risk: Market stop set at $279.33 | Max calculated risk = 0.1632 BTC
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.96 lots ($96,000)
Realized PnL: -0.1546 BTC
ROI: -0.61%
Short: EURUSD
*1/3/19 Scale out 25% due to close > Long MA
*1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS at 1.1501 for remainder of position
*1/9/19 STOPPED OUT
Price: 1.13387
Projected Risk (horizontal resistance): 1.4%
Leverage: 100:1
Exposure: 0.24 lots ($24,000)
Realized PnL: -0.1098 BTC
ROI: -1.74%
Open Orders
*1/9/19 AMENDED: Stop Market to long 1.645 XBTH19 @ $4,037. Reason for entry is Consensio + that would be TL breakthrough. Tightened stop due to below yesterday’s close and that allowed me to increase the potential exposure and still risk the same.
*1/9/19 CANCELLED Stop Market to long ETHUSD @ $160.20 because Consensio is starting to turn bearish.
Stop Market to short XAUUSD @ $1,274.89. Reason for entry is that would create a lower low and break down parabolic advance.
Stop Market to buy XRPUSD @ $0.528. Reason for entry is Bollinger Band super squeeze on weekly and preference for longs due to r:r + coming of a major area of support + Consensio turning bullish on daily with a Golden Cross.
Watchtower
XRPUSD: In a Bollinger Band super squeeze on the weekly with lower highers and highers lows suggesting upcoming parabolic move either way...a/k/a Jesus Fish Pattern. Symmetrical triangle on daily provides first target of $1.1
BTCUSD: Gap in the visible range volume profile looks like it is begging to get filled. If we close above $4,300 then a return to $5,400 - $6,000 would be my highest probability outcome. Will be strongly considering setting a stop order to add to my long above the daily Parabolic SAR.
ETHUSD: First weekly buy signal since April 2018. Very interested to see how the market reacts to the Constantinople Hard Fork. I think it will be bearish so I am very hesitant about this signal.
ETHBTC: Potential weekly Golden Cross upcoming. Pullback to 33 day MA could represent could entry.
LTCUSD: Close > TL + boundary line of c&h / ascending triangle. Testing top of cloud + bullish kumo twist. I could enter a stop entry now, but I prefer to wait for a close above the daily cloud.
XRPBTC: Incoming death cross following L MA roll over could be setting up ideal entry. However ascending triangle is still in tact and want to wait to enter until we get a close above / below.
XAUUSD: A few daily candles have closed above the trend line from 2016 but when zooming out to the weekly chart it becomes clear that the TL is continuing to hold as resistance, therefore it is still in tact. Daily looks like it is ready to break down at any moment and that is why I will be waiting with stop entry. Consensio is also starting to signal short entries with P < S & M MA while those are making a bearish cross.
USDCAD: Approaching bullish 200 MA while the M MA and L MA posture for death cross.
EURUSD: Consensio turned fully bullish but price is approaching a retest of the 200 MA which is in a strong bear trend.
USDHUF: Consensio turned fully bearish but price is approaching a retest of the 200 MA which is in a strong bull trend.
USDJPY: Attempting to reverse bullish 200 MA with incoming death cross. Weekly is also on the verge of a reversal which indicates that we could be of the precipice of a big trend. Will be looking for large position once symmetrical triangle breaks down with weekly close.
USDRUB: Symmetrical triangle forming above bullish 200 MA that is approaching the price. Also had a recent GGC on the weekly.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/