YFI - Update 2: Bounce off the bottom or bust.
I looked at YFI twice in the last little while, last time I mentioned I'd update the idea at the end of the week. Here we are, and here I am.
Gonna be relatively brief as the market seems teetering on a knifes edge across the board and this whole thing may be invalidated potentially within the hour if things decide to go toes to Jesus.You've been warned.
Last time we talked about how the upward channel looked to widen a little, but we still seemed to be stalling out at a previous support level.
The more the week has gone on, it looks like we're now in a potential short term triple bottom & long term double bottom, at the bottom of the historic channel. Potential for short term reversal, then slight gains?
It is troubling the the lows on the potential short term triple bottom have been a decent amount lower. Might just be the volatility of a relatively young coin without a huge historical order book, might be signs of support erosion as the volume has been dropping. Might be signs of early support on the first bounce of the triple stopping it from truly hitting the support level. Different ways to read that.
Some factors to consider:
How to proceed?
The nice thing here is, we'll likely know which way the wind is blowing pretty quick. We're near the bottom of the historic channel, we're trading on historic support that has been strongly tested before. The next support looks to be a fair bit lower historically so we'll likely see a big collapse if the retest doesn't hold.
Either make a small move on the retest if you're feeling frisky, or wait to see which direction we're headed after we retest. There's a decent chance, the way I see it, if the retest is successful we're going to move up another fib level back on the MA. Unsuccessful
TP short term if we get a good retest would be next fib level on the chart & EMA level. 28k. I wouldn't aim higher than that at the moment with the way things are.
SL would be below the current resistance, around 17500. If we hit this it'll mark a lower low on the ascending channel, potentially breaking the trend and reestablishing a wider short term descending channel.
HIGHLY SPECULATIVE.
--
I'm a guy that you don't know posting his ideas on the internet for the sake of improving as a human being. If you take this as financial advice, that's on you.
If you like my analysis, then leave a like and feel free to follow for more free content. Feedback, criticism and crude humor are welcome :)
Gonna be relatively brief as the market seems teetering on a knifes edge across the board and this whole thing may be invalidated potentially within the hour if things decide to go toes to Jesus.You've been warned.
Last time we talked about how the upward channel looked to widen a little, but we still seemed to be stalling out at a previous support level.
The more the week has gone on, it looks like we're now in a potential short term triple bottom & long term double bottom, at the bottom of the historic channel. Potential for short term reversal, then slight gains?
It is troubling the the lows on the potential short term triple bottom have been a decent amount lower. Might just be the volatility of a relatively young coin without a huge historical order book, might be signs of support erosion as the volume has been dropping. Might be signs of early support on the first bounce of the triple stopping it from truly hitting the support level. Different ways to read that.
Some factors to consider:
- Shrinking volume on the sell as you can see on the volume osci., both on the potential triple and long term double bottom. Good signs.
- Currently we're sitting right on a fib level, with the price bouncing back up here consistently after testing lower support.
- We're at the bottom of the historic ascending channel, with a higher low so far proved.
- Just had a small breakout of clear downtrend since peak.
- EMA 100 is above the current price and a fib level. Potential target?
- MACD has been looking stronger, still lots of room to go. Potential bearish cross signalling a short term drop.
- Stoch overbought, crossed bearish and looking at short term reversal.
How to proceed?
The nice thing here is, we'll likely know which way the wind is blowing pretty quick. We're near the bottom of the historic channel, we're trading on historic support that has been strongly tested before. The next support looks to be a fair bit lower historically so we'll likely see a big collapse if the retest doesn't hold.
Either make a small move on the retest if you're feeling frisky, or wait to see which direction we're headed after we retest. There's a decent chance, the way I see it, if the retest is successful we're going to move up another fib level back on the MA. Unsuccessful
TP short term if we get a good retest would be next fib level on the chart & EMA level. 28k. I wouldn't aim higher than that at the moment with the way things are.
SL would be below the current resistance, around 17500. If we hit this it'll mark a lower low on the ascending channel, potentially breaking the trend and reestablishing a wider short term descending channel.
HIGHLY SPECULATIVE.
--
I'm a guy that you don't know posting his ideas on the internet for the sake of improving as a human being. If you take this as financial advice, that's on you.
If you like my analysis, then leave a like and feel free to follow for more free content. Feedback, criticism and crude humor are welcome :)
Comment:
Hit on TP 1 :)
Comment:
Cracking good day!
Come hang out with me on telegram, it's free and I won't be too mean too mean to you:
t.me/KadnimCrypto
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YFI apparently. we'll see if it holds..