Zeta Global (ZETA) – Strong Fundamental Rebound Setup

ZETA Fundamental Overview

Zeta Global continues to show strong improvement in fundamentals.

Revenue growth:
From 2021 to 2024 revenue expanded from 360M to 1B, which represents a stable annual growth rate of 25 to 30 percent. This is a solid pace for a company still scaling into profitability.

EPS momentum:
Starting from 2023 EPS began accelerating rapidly. It grew 40 percent in 2023, then 60 percent, and based on quarterly trends 2024 EPS growth is likely to exceed 100 percent.
Quarter over quarter EPS growth from mid 2024 has also been stable at around 25 to 30 percent.

Current EPS is 0.12 and the company is moving closer to full profitability.

Forward valuation:
Forward P/E sits around 18.73 which is attractive considering triple digit EPS growth projections. This suggests that the stock is undervalued relative to forward earnings potential.

Free cash flow:
Free cash flow continues to improve. Historically, when EPS was negative, the stock still traded around 30 dollars. Now with much stronger EPS the stock is only 18 dollars, which highlights a valuation disconnect.

Dilution risk – the main negative factor:
Since 2022 the company has been increasing share count by roughly 2 to 3 percent each quarter.
A major dilution happened in November 2024 when shares increased by roughly 30 percent, which triggered the sharp decline from 30 to 18 dollars. This is currently the main fundamental risk.

Technical Analysis
Price is still inside a broad accumulation range.

Two key volume clusters:

• 14 to 22 dollars
  
• 7 to 9 dollars
  

Current decline looks like a completed wave 2 correction with early signs of wave 3 formation.

Fibonacci structure:

Wave 2 typically retraces 38 to 62 percent.
The 38 percent level has already been touched, but price can still revisit 13 to 14 dollars which matches the subwave 4 zone of the previous wave 3. This creates a strong confluence support.

Entry and risk management:

• Potential entry zone: 13 to 15 dollars
  
• Stop loss: 11 dollars – below this level the structure becomes invalid
  

Targets:

1. 22.5 dollars – high of wave 1
   
2. After breakout of this level: 38 dollars – global wave 1 high
   
3. If price holds above 38 dollars after retest, a much larger rally becomes possible as institutional accumulation typically unfolds above the breakout zone.
   

Conclusion
Zeta Global presents a rare combination of improving fundamentals and a potentially completed corrective structure on the chart. Dilution remains a notable risk, but the valuation gap and strong earnings trajectory create an attractive reward to risk scenario.

I am monitoring the 13 to 15 dollar zone for long entries with targets at 22.5 and 38 dollars.