ZILLIQA - Classic blow off top, strong coin
This is the Zill : Ether chart with 4 hour candles. You can see a slow and steady uptrend from mid April until May 8th when Zil went parabolic. From the 8th to the 11th of May is a classic blow off top. Zill has plenty of reason for its meteoric rise: TestNet release, numerous exchange listings, announcement of its first DAPP, etc and I am a big long term HODLer of this coin. However, this chart and current uptrend just can't be continued. This chart looks exactly like Bitcoin late December, or Antshares/Neo mid last year, or Ripple early this year.
If you can't see it, here is the pattern:
1) A strong uptrend begins
2) we see an upward deviation from the upward trendline due to good news or increased liquidity (Zill had both)
3) The crowd sees the rise and wants in on the action, FOMO sets in and we see a meteoric price rise
4) the blow off top occurs - price skyrockets up and then skyrockets down
5) a downtrend starts and the market goes into price discovery
As you can see we are now in the price discovery phase after the top. In legitimate coins like Zill these blow off tops aren't bad; we generally see a healthy correction and maintain 25%-50% of the gains once price discovery is done. In scam coins like Bytecoin, ChainCoin, and others we typically see a complete crash after their ruse is complete. Zilliqa is not one of those coins in my opinion.
I have broken the recent bull run into retracement zones in the usual 33%, 50%, and 66% pattern starting from the dotted purple line where the bull run started going to the highest closing mark. As you can see these zones are very reactive. We just bounced off the downtrend confirming it as resistance. For educational purposes, day traders can use this line to open day trades. We are also at the 66% retrace line which is currently acting as support. We could see a reversal here BUT that is not how typical blow off tops work. More likely we will fall further and test the Previous Up Trendline in blue.
I have already sold 10% of my position at 0.00028 and re-bought at .00023. I currently have no moves planned. I expect more price increase in Q3 with the anticipated (hopefully smooth) release of Main-net. The one fear I have is Ethereum releases sharding well in advance, undercutting Zill's advantage, but there is no reason both can't exist side by side.
***This is not investing advice. All investors should seek guidance from licensed financial advisers and not random people on the internet.***
If you can't see it, here is the pattern:
1) A strong uptrend begins
2) we see an upward deviation from the upward trendline due to good news or increased liquidity (Zill had both)
3) The crowd sees the rise and wants in on the action, FOMO sets in and we see a meteoric price rise
4) the blow off top occurs - price skyrockets up and then skyrockets down
5) a downtrend starts and the market goes into price discovery
As you can see we are now in the price discovery phase after the top. In legitimate coins like Zill these blow off tops aren't bad; we generally see a healthy correction and maintain 25%-50% of the gains once price discovery is done. In scam coins like Bytecoin, ChainCoin, and others we typically see a complete crash after their ruse is complete. Zilliqa is not one of those coins in my opinion.
I have broken the recent bull run into retracement zones in the usual 33%, 50%, and 66% pattern starting from the dotted purple line where the bull run started going to the highest closing mark. As you can see these zones are very reactive. We just bounced off the downtrend confirming it as resistance. For educational purposes, day traders can use this line to open day trades. We are also at the 66% retrace line which is currently acting as support. We could see a reversal here BUT that is not how typical blow off tops work. More likely we will fall further and test the Previous Up Trendline in blue.
I have already sold 10% of my position at 0.00028 and re-bought at .00023. I currently have no moves planned. I expect more price increase in Q3 with the anticipated (hopefully smooth) release of Main-net. The one fear I have is Ethereum releases sharding well in advance, undercutting Zill's advantage, but there is no reason both can't exist side by side.
***This is not investing advice. All investors should seek guidance from licensed financial advisers and not random people on the internet.***
The 66% retrace offered little support which I do not find surprising.
I expect further downtrend until we reach the blue upward trendline. TradingView doesn't have Zill:USD charts which would be nice. Depending upon what Ethereum does (which is what this chart is based on) I am looking at the $0.12-$0.10 price for support, hopefully followed by resumption of the an uptrend.