BUND and ZN - No bearish follow through in 10y bonds?
As I warned before, the last few days selling may not unfold as obviously and and so go as deep as the last two rounds before. Actually there is serious loss of bearish momentum, so maybe a short squeeze and spike is just around the corner?
Bund:
- Today the Heikin Ashi candle shows serious undecision. It seems in last two days on average sellers are slowly losing control. haDelta crosses above its SMA3. If haDelta goes above zero line, and we see a green candle breaking above Kijun Sen, then a short squeeze can happen. That kind of move would change the bearish Ichimoku picture to neutral again.
- Supp/res lvls: 152 - 152,50 (Kijun Sen and trendline), but above this there is only 154-154,50 where probably sellers would dominate again.
US Treasury:
- The loss of bearish bias is not yet as obvious here as on the Bund. Watch if today candle makes an inside body compared to previous one, without making a lower low. As usual, for early quantification we have to watch changes in haDelta/SMA3.
- Supp/res lvls: 126,10-126,50 (Kijun and Trendline), 127-127,50 (Kumo area)
Please note that this post is not a call to go long in these long end bonds, as the Ichimoku setup is still bearish. The indication is to trail the stops on latest shorts.
Bund:
- Today the Heikin Ashi candle shows serious undecision. It seems in last two days on average sellers are slowly losing control. haDelta crosses above its SMA3. If haDelta goes above zero line, and we see a green candle breaking above Kijun Sen, then a short squeeze can happen. That kind of move would change the bearish Ichimoku picture to neutral again.
- Supp/res lvls: 152 - 152,50 (Kijun Sen and trendline), but above this there is only 154-154,50 where probably sellers would dominate again.
US Treasury:
- The loss of bearish bias is not yet as obvious here as on the Bund. Watch if today candle makes an inside body compared to previous one, without making a lower low. As usual, for early quantification we have to watch changes in haDelta/SMA3.
- Supp/res lvls: 126,10-126,50 (Kijun and Trendline), 127-127,50 (Kumo area)
Please note that this post is not a call to go long in these long end bonds, as the Ichimoku setup is still bearish. The indication is to trail the stops on latest shorts.
