generationyfarmer
Long

Soybean's harvest low offer potential upside

CBOT:ZS1!   SOYBEAN FUTURES - ECBT
682 10 5
Soybeans             has hold on the bottom of its long term uptrend and now is showing us signs to go long:

Technical Weekly
+ Bullish Engulfing candle pattern
+ MACD bullish crossing (about to happen)
+ RSI bullish divergence
+ RSI Oversold
Technical Daily
+ MACD bullish crossing
+ MACD divergence
+ RSI above 40
+ RSI bullish divergence
+ Stochastics bullish crossing
Fundamentals
+ Good up movement on Friday,November 7th, after a neutral to slightly bullish USDA report
- S.America planting season on perfect situation
- Record S.America crop
Seasonals
+ Soybean's harvest low offer potential upside
+ Oct             historically 66% up months; Nov historically 57% up months


Entry point: a daily close above 1318'6
Stop: a daily close below 1296'0
Target: after bearish signals (to be defined)


Any other idea ?
Please, feel welcome to share.
LEONES PRO
3 years ago
I agree with you but I think it is going to pull back next week to 1270-1260 that would be my entry
Reply
LEONES PRO
3 years ago
Note that Harvest is well underway
Reply
Thanks Leones,
I agree, there is a chance I'm too early to the party. But, IMHO if the 1260s area is tested again, this trade would be in check and should be put on hold until a new bullish development. I think this small divergence might have something to do with the timeframes we are working on. If we are thinking on a short term move, this set up is probably a little too risky, and the wait for a pullback seems prudent.

As for the harvest,
USDA released its Crop Progress report yesterday. Link: http://usda01.library.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProg/CropProg-11-12-2013.pdf
Soybean harvest at 91%; trade expected 94%; last week 86%; last year 95%; 5-yr avg for week is 92%
A better visualisation is possible on this pdf file (last chart on it) http://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/2013/IA_2013.pdf
Harvest progress is in line with recent years, or, if we want to be rigorous...a bit late (1%), and I think this helps our trade reasoning

Reply
Fine,
It closed below 1296'0 on friday so we are stoping it at a loss of around 1,7% (1319 to 1296).
Reply
TitusMarenye
3 years ago
This was a huge and great call, in November- what is the next target based on romors of Chinese Export cancellations due to GMO concerns? Whats your view?
Reply
generationyfarmer TitusMarenye
2 years ago
Tirus,
I think the rumours are just that...rumours. China is playing the market, as usual.
In the meantime, soybeans price is stable and corn is starting to show some strength.
If this talk was real, we would not be seing this,
Reply
Corn export shipments to all destinations for the week ending December 5 were the largest one-week total since April 2012.
Reply
LEONES PRO
2 years ago
Good stuff, next target 1370 here, Corn following
Reply
generationyfarmer LEONES
2 years ago
True Leones,
I will probably post something about corn.
There are some interesting conditions developing, especially Meal/Corn ratio and COT at extreme levels.
Reply
2013.12.09 - USDA PRE-REPORT UPDATE

A new good entry point for Soybeans
Reply
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