+ candle pattern
+ crossing (about to happen)
+ above 40
+ Stochastics crossing
+ Good up movement on Friday,November 7th, after a neutral to slightly USDA report
- S.America planting season on perfect situation
- Record S.America crop
+ Soybean's harvest low offer potential upside
+ Oct historically 66% up months; Nov historically 57% up months
Entry point: a daily close above 1318'6
Stop: a daily close below 1296'0
Target: after signals (to be defined)
Any other idea ?
Please, feel welcome to share.
I agree, there is a chance I'm too early to the party. But, IMHO if the 1260s area is tested again, this trade would be in check and should be put on hold until a new bullish development. I think this small divergence might have something to do with the timeframes we are working on. If we are thinking on a short term move, this set up is probably a little too risky, and the wait for a pullback seems prudent.
As for the harvest,
USDA released its Crop Progress report yesterday. Link: http://usda01.library.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProg/CropProg-11-12-2013.pdf
Soybean harvest at 91%; trade expected 94%; last week 86%; last year 95%; 5-yr avg for week is 92%
A better visualisation is possible on this pdf file (last chart on it) http://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/2013/IA_2013.pdf
Harvest progress is in line with recent years, or, if we want to be rigorous...a bit late (1%), and I think this helps our trade reasoning