Soybeans seem to defy all odds when it comes to rational and can often take things to the extreme, one side or another. This is very sweet when you are on the profitable side of this rational but equally as bitter when you are not.
During the beginning of May, I had a suspicion the market was very oversold and was due for a correction to the upside, but it seemed like the upside move would never come as the market continued to punish them. Finally, on 5/14 they came to life and gave me a good buy signal by busting the downward line of resistance. I estimated there was a 98% chance of a low and now had a move up to jump in on. It did prove to be a great one.
After clearing through $9.20 I foresee resistance around the $9.65. I believe the market will float around in between these two levels until 7/1. This will be after the Acreage report by the USDA which, many in the trade are anticipating will have fewer planted acres of soybeans than originally anticipated back in March. Also, the upward support line will start to squeeze the market into the $9.65 resistance level, I believe if the market does not move up through $9.65 prior to then it will have good technical reasons to then.
I am a bull on soybeans but will not add to my position now unless we retest the lows of $9.20. or break through $9.65.
In other words, I am sitting on my hands and remaining patient.
**Educational purposes only**
During the beginning of May, I had a suspicion the market was very oversold and was due for a correction to the upside, but it seemed like the upside move would never come as the market continued to punish them. Finally, on 5/14 they came to life and gave me a good buy signal by busting the downward line of resistance. I estimated there was a 98% chance of a low and now had a move up to jump in on. It did prove to be a great one.
After clearing through $9.20 I foresee resistance around the $9.65. I believe the market will float around in between these two levels until 7/1. This will be after the Acreage report by the USDA which, many in the trade are anticipating will have fewer planted acres of soybeans than originally anticipated back in March. Also, the upward support line will start to squeeze the market into the $9.65 resistance level, I believe if the market does not move up through $9.65 prior to then it will have good technical reasons to then.
I am a bull on soybeans but will not add to my position now unless we retest the lows of $9.20. or break through $9.65.
In other words, I am sitting on my hands and remaining patient.
**Educational purposes only**