Short Wheat

CBOT:ZW1!   Wheat Futures
Due to a weaker Ruble , Wheat from Russia becomes more competetive which should be solved by a partial decline of US Wheat prices (and by a partial increase in Russia Wheat prices - higher demand for Russian Wheat ).

Furthermore, USDA does not expect a declining "Ending Stocks" for Wheat this season although US Weather around Kansas is still very unfavorable for Winter Wheat conditions.
World Ending Stocks expected: Estimates (April) = 254 Million MT, March = 252 Million - but this is mostly due to a higher estimated "World Beginning Stock" (instead of 252 Million, the world started with 254 Million in this season).

Therefore, I expect US (Chicago) Wheat prices to fall to around 462 (next support area ). A stop loss should be placed a little bit above 478 (now a resistance area ).
Comment: The idea worked out earlier than I planned.


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