Bearish clues:
- The general trend has been downward since mid of August 2021
- Wheat price has reached the resistance at $7.71/bu and the middle of the Andrews' Pitchfork
- The price of wheat has already broken down a bullish channel
- The price of wheat has already broken down the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the last swing and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the last big up move
- The price of wheat has broken the 20 exponential moving average
Fundamental news:
- The USD is more and more stronger, which is bearish for US commodities
- Drop in oil prices
- Take profit from investors
- Better climate conditions in the North-East (wheat suffered from drought. Only 11% of spring wheat in the US are considered as good quality (spring wheat represents 25% of wheat acreages in the US => - 11% on the US wheat production YoY (Source: USDA).
Objectives:
Wheat could first decrease to the $7.10/bu level (support). And then maybe to the $6.90/bu level (50% Fibonacci retracement level and bottom of the Andrews' Pitchfork) or will rebound on the support level and will go up again if there are more positive news on Chinese imports and bad news on US harvest.
SHORT-TERM: BEARISH
MID-TERM: WAITING THE END OF THE US HARVEST
Feel free to share, comment and give your opinion if it is constructive ;)
DISCLAIMER: This is not investment advice
- The general trend has been downward since mid of August 2021
- Wheat price has reached the resistance at $7.71/bu and the middle of the Andrews' Pitchfork
- The price of wheat has already broken down a bullish channel
- The price of wheat has already broken down the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the last swing and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the last big up move
- The price of wheat has broken the 20 exponential moving average
Fundamental news:
- The USD is more and more stronger, which is bearish for US commodities
- Drop in oil prices
- Take profit from investors
- Better climate conditions in the North-East (wheat suffered from drought. Only 11% of spring wheat in the US are considered as good quality (spring wheat represents 25% of wheat acreages in the US => - 11% on the US wheat production YoY (Source: USDA).
Objectives:
Wheat could first decrease to the $7.10/bu level (support). And then maybe to the $6.90/bu level (50% Fibonacci retracement level and bottom of the Andrews' Pitchfork) or will rebound on the support level and will go up again if there are more positive news on Chinese imports and bad news on US harvest.
SHORT-TERM: BEARISH
MID-TERM: WAITING THE END OF THE US HARVEST
Feel free to share, comment and give your opinion if it is constructive ;)
DISCLAIMER: This is not investment advice
Trade closed: target reached