riskon

ashfaq.hussain.duggal ashfaq.hussain.duggal USDJPY, D, Long ,
USDJPY: USDJPY waiting to enter long on a reversal signal!
61 0 4
USDJPY, D Long
USDJPY waiting to enter long on a reversal signal!

As we mentioned in our previous note that dollar may not be able clear 115.10 area. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USDJPY/ttdSVwyM-US-NFP-USDJPY-rejected-114-90-level-4-times-may-be-5th-time/ After having a series of central banks decisions, Markets are posing toward Risk-On mode now. AUS, Kiwi along with stocks welcomed Fed's softer tone. Fed remain dovish ...

patrick186 patrick186 PRO DJI, W, Long ,
DJI: Major Buy Signal on the DOW
79 0 0
DJI, W Long
Major Buy Signal on the DOW

We closed above the all time high at the end of July signaling MAJOR bullish sentiment. We came back to retest that key area over the past week and then closed out this week with a nice low test in that area. Key Lines are based on Marty Armstrong's Socrates model.

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading USDJPY, 45, Long ,
USDJPY: RANGE BOUND - USDJPY: TRADING STRATEGY - PART 2
468 1 13
USDJPY, 45 Long
RANGE BOUND - USDJPY: TRADING STRATEGY - PART 2

Trading for this week: 1. My plan for next week focuses on point "3." from the previous post - I am waiting for risk-on or risk-off assets to confirm investor conviction by using USDJPY as a barometer for net risk sentiment. Despite the market uncertainty and high volatility UJ last week traded within a 200pip range for the between 101.3-103.3. Therefore, I ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading USDJPY, 45, Long ,
USDJPY: RANGE BOUND - USDJPY: IS THIS GLOBAL RISK RECOVERY REAL? PART 1
328 0 14
USDJPY, 45 Long
RANGE BOUND - USDJPY: IS THIS GLOBAL RISK RECOVERY REAL? PART 1

Expectations vs Reality: 1. Following the referendum decision on Friday, as expected GBP sold off 10%+, the FTSE plummeted in a similar fashion and global risk assets sold off across the board, but FTSE/ Risk recovered a significant amount of those losses into Fridays close and for the rest of the next week.. So what happened to BREXIT? - Such behaviour would ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPUSD, 15, Short ,
GBPUSD: BREXIT & GEO-POLITICAL AFTERMATH: SHORT GBPUSD - HOW TO TRADE
634 3 19
GBPUSD, 15 Short
BREXIT & GEO-POLITICAL AFTERMATH: SHORT GBPUSD - HOW TO TRADE

GBPUSD - At the end of last week GU traded to lows of 1.32 on the brexit vote, before retracing substantially to 1.39 by the end of the day. - GU retraced 600-700pips after the brexit event IMO solely as investors took profit from their shorts (which causes buying) - thus there was no structural reason for GU recovering e.g. it was that 1.32 had mispriced GU too ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPUSD, D, Short ,
GBPUSD: TP ON BREXIT VOLATILITY: SELL GBP RALLIES & BUY RISK-OFF DIPS
679 6 18
GBPUSD, D Short
TP ON BREXIT VOLATILITY: SELL GBP RALLIES & BUY RISK-OFF DIPS

Thought id put a piece out as my guide for the week for how to trade the 23rd UK EU Referendum vote. IMO the first rule and most important is - DONT TRADE THE VOTE. Trying to guess the answer is like trying to win the lottery, so instead i advise taking a position on the volatility, as volatility doesnt discriminate, it trades both ways. Trading the ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading USDJPY, D, Long ,
USDJPY: LONG USDJPY @105.8: NEUTRAL FOMC; DOVISH & EASE BOJ & RISK-ON
417 8 17
USDJPY, D Long
LONG USDJPY @105.8: NEUTRAL FOMC; DOVISH & EASE BOJ & RISK-ON

We had the best possible outcome for FOMC's Rate decision and Fed Yellens speech which was neutral IMO as expected, with the Economic Projections being dovish, downgrading the projected rate hike cycle. We now look to BOJ. Trading strategy: LONG USDJPY (possibly short also GBPJPY for longer term investors or investors that want to hedge against a hawkish ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPUSD, W, Short ,
GBPUSD: RELATIVE VALUE: BEST EXPRESSION OF BREXIT - GBP VS USD, JPY, CHF
284 0 13
GBPUSD, W Short
RELATIVE VALUE: BEST EXPRESSION OF BREXIT - GBP VS USD, JPY, CHF

An analysis of which LONG has the best value against the short GBP to play the Brexit.[ - GBPUSD has a target handle of 1.385. - GBPJPY target handle at 1.483. - GBPCHF target handle at 1.335. - IMO currently i rule out GBPUSD short, as USD doesnt have the same "risk-off" demand as CHF and JPY. Also USD and GBP economies are perhaps the most highly correlated, ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPUSD, D, Short ,
GBPUSD: GBPUSD: THE RUN DOWN & HOW TO TRADE - FOMC & UK EU REFERENDUM 2
712 4 19
GBPUSD, D Short
GBPUSD: THE RUN DOWN & HOW TO TRADE - FOMC & UK EU REFERENDUM 2

I suggest you check out ALL of the relevant articles that i attach to this post so that this post makes sense SEE PART 1 ALSO GBPUSD historical Price Action The findings of previous the attached "Price action history posts" led to the conclusion that referendum history clearly wasn't repeating itself however IMO because this is the case it has opened up ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPUSD, D, Short ,
GBPUSD: GBPUSD: THE RUN DOWN & HOW TO TRADE - FOMC & UK EU REFERENDUM 1
430 3 16
GBPUSD, D Short
GBPUSD: THE RUN DOWN & HOW TO TRADE - FOMC & UK EU REFERENDUM 1

This article is a tradable summary of all of the indepth GBP$ analysis i have done recently - I aim to give you a conclusive opinion and trading plan. SEE PART 2 ALSO I suggest you check out ALL of the relevant articles that i attach to this post so that this post makes sense In a nutshell i am heavily short GU, about 8-9/10 @1.44/5 (@1.41 only 2/10) - so i ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading USDJPY, W, Long ,
USDJPY: BUY USDJPY: SUP LEVEL @105.5 & VOLATILITY SELL-OFF @ HIGH LEVELS
246 4 9
USDJPY, W Long
BUY USDJPY: SUP LEVEL @105.5 & VOLATILITY SELL-OFF @ HIGH LEVELS

BUY USDJPY @106.5 or @107.0 - SL @105 - TP @109-11 based on: $YEN's historical most important support level - The 105.5 Key level will more than likely hold as it has many times before - At 105.5 there are 3 significant UNSUCCESSFUL tests of the level over the last 3 years thus it is a great entry point. Also another plus is if you look at the monthly chart you ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading USDJPY, W,
USDJPY: IS YEN REALLY RISK-OFF AND CORRELATED TO SPX (RISK-ON)?
335 0 8
USDJPY, W
IS YEN REALLY RISK-OFF AND CORRELATED TO SPX (RISK-ON)?

Though id post as just one example, perhaps the most obvious, that shows how heavily the JPY is considered a risk-off asset and to show the clearly, since the SPX is a risk-on asset, that the JPY is negatively correlated with the SPX. In times of market fear/ uncertainty, YEN is sought out, just like bonds and gold, as a safe heaven asset. The theory behind this ...

IvanLabrie IvanLabrie PRO JPYUSD, 3D, Long ,
JPYUSD: JPYUSD: Long yen, deleveraging in the background
739 5 36
JPYUSD, 3D Long
JPYUSD: Long yen, deleveraging in the background

In this chart I analyze the currently active signals in the JPYUSD chart, as an alternative way of approaching USDJPY to prevent biases. I'm seeing an active 2 week trend, which has until June 27th to complete, but also if you dial down to the 3 day chart, you can see a valid uptrend signal emerging from the recent 'impulsive' leg to the upside. I'm interested in ...

IvanLabrie IvanLabrie PRO DY1!, M, Long ,
DY1!: Dax: Potential monthly uptrend emerging from mode support
297 0 31
DY1!, M Long
Dax: Potential monthly uptrend emerging from mode support

We have seen a very volatile range in the Dax recently, in lower timeframes, but if we use a bird's eye view of the situation, we can see that the previous mode support from this leg's uptrend held and it's about to fire an uptrend signal. My previous monthly downtrend analysis is currently invalid, and we can expect to get excellent opportunities on the long side ...

IvanLabrie IvanLabrie PRO FXE, 3D,
FXE: Intermarket analysis: Paradigm shift
362 6 31
FXE, 3D
Intermarket analysis: Paradigm shift

I was considering two alternative scenarios for the market. Initially I thought the Euro rally and equities meltdown had more merit, but after close scrutiny and being stopped out and thus having my EURUSD and USDCHF long and short invalidated, I realized that the appetite for risk was evident, had I looked at it without weighing in my risk off rally thesis so ...

IvanLabrie IvanLabrie PRO USDJPY, D, Long ,
USDJPY: USDJPY: Update
840 7 35
USDJPY, D Long
USDJPY: Update

Here's my updated view on USDJPY. We have a few interesting resistance levels ahead, but overall, the pair is looking up, receiving a strong boost thanks to Mr. Mario Draghi's magic words, and the Nikkei rally before it. Low volume resistance at 121.7 may halt the advance, keep that in mind. I'm in other related trades, I'll try to balance these positions by ...

IvanLabrie IvanLabrie PRO GBPUSD, D, Long ,
GBPUSD: GBPUSD: Still looks like a long to me
857 37 22
GBPUSD, D Long
GBPUSD: Still looks like a long to me

This is my second attempt at a long. I think this pair is trending heavily up, and while I think some usd pairs might head down (like audusd and nzdusd, at least in the short/intermediate term), this pair looks to be headed up. Once we cross the quarterly mode I'll be confident in hitting the yearly targets #1 and #2, for now I entered a long here, and also ...

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