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Ratio

Dow Jones v/s Gold Ratio — History Repeating?Currently both DJI & Gold are at there peak levels, but the ratio has already breached a historical support, signaling further downfall. Whenever the Dow-to-Gold ratio tests or breaks the 12.0 level, stories are created in history. * 1929: Great Depression hit — stocks crashed, gold outperformed. * 1973: Oil shock & stagflation — gold surged as inflation soared. * 2008: Global Financial Crisis — stocks collapsed, gold became the safe haven. - 2020: COVID tested the level but failed to break it. Now, in 2025, the ratio has again breached the historic level of 12.0 — the same zone that preceded past market meltdowns. Each time stocks looked strong relative to gold, the cycle turned * Gold rallied. - Stocks corrected. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- What is the Dow-to-Gold Ratio? Dow/Gold Ratio = Value of Dow Jones Index ÷ Price of Gold (per ounce) This ratio tells us how many ounces of gold it takes to buy one unit of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. For example: If Dow = 46,000 and Gold = 4000 → Ratio = 11.5. That means it takes 11.5 ounces of gold to buy one unit of Dow. If the ratio falls to 6, which the chart is signaling, then it will mean: 1. Stocks might weaken or 2. Gold might become stronger or 3. If both weaken, then stocks will fall more than gold ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Interpretation 1. Whenever the ratio is high, it means stocks are expensive compared to gold (risk-on period) . 2. Whenever the ratio falls, it means gold is outperforming stocks (risk-off, crisis or correction phase) . Overall, the Dow to Gold ratio suggests that this is not a normal period - a period of crisis & correction - a risk-off period Each time this ratio reached around current levels, a major stock market downturn followed
TVC:DJIEducation
by Nadia_farhat
Ratio Charts in TradingView and IAAbove you can see the Bitcoin to Ethereum ratio chart. Ratio analysis between two or more symbols is a critical method for comparing the strength and weakness of assets relative to each other. TradingView offers basic capabilities for this task, but with the help of artificial intelligence (AI) and custom scripts, much more advanced and creative analyses can be conducted. Here are some practical ideas: 1. Creating Conditional Ratio Scripts 2. Comparing Relative Averages and Issuing Smart Signals 3. Calculating Composite Ratios of Multiple Assets 4. Smart Alerts Based on Price Pattern Breakouts For more information, search Google for "How to Use Ratio Charts in TradingView: A Hidden Gem for Traders."
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by mostafadehghan321
2
Asymmetric Risk Reward: The Secret to Success in Trading?Be as bold as you want yet protect your capital with the asymmetric risk reward strategy — an approach adopted by some of the greatest market wizards out there. In this Idea, we distill the concept of asymmetric bets and teach you how to risk little and earn big. Spoiler: legendary traders George Soros, Ray Dalio and Paul Tudor Jones love this trick. Every trade you open has only two possible outcomes: you either turn a profit or make a loss. Perhaps the greatest thing you can learn about these two outcomes is the balance between them. The fundamental difference between making money and losing money — the mighty risk-reward ratio . The risk-reward ratio is your trade’s upside relative to the downside you baked in (or realized). Let’s Break It Down 🤸‍♂️ Most traders believe that you have to take huge risks to be successful. But that’s not what the big guys in the industry do with the piles of cash they’ve got. Instead, they try to take the least amount of risk possible with the most upside. That’s what asymmetric risk-reward ratio means. Think of it this way: you invest $1 only if you believe you can ultimately make $5. Now your risk-reward ratio is set at 1:5, or a hit ratio of 20%. Safe to say that you’ll likely be wrong lots of times. But step by step, you can risk another dollar for that $5 reward and build up a good track record or more wins than losses. That way you can be wrong four times out of five and still make money. Let’s scale it up and pull these two further apart. Let’s say you want to chase a juicier profit with a small risk. You can pursue a risk-reward ratio of 1 to 15, meaning you risk $1 to make $15. The odds are very much in your favor — you can be wrong 14 times out of 15 and still break even. What Does This Look Like in Practice? 🧐 Suddenly, the EUR/USD is looking attractive and you’re convinced that it’s about to skyrocket after some big news shakes it up. You’re ready to ramp up your long position. Now comes decision time — what’s a safe level of risk relative to a handsome reward? You decide to use leverage of 1:100 and buy one lot (100,000 units) at the price of $1.10. That means your investment is worth €1,000 but in practice you are selling $100,000 (because of the leverage) to buy the equivalent in euro. In a trade of that size one pip, or the fourth figure after the decimal (0.0001), carries a value of €10 in either direction. If the exchange rate moves from $1.1000 to $1.1100, that’s 100 pips of profit worth a total of €1,000. But if the trade turns against you, you stand to lose the same amount per pip. Now, let’s go to the practical side of things. You choose to widen the gap between risk and reward and aim for profit that’s 15 times your potential loss. You set your stop loss at a level that, if taken out, won’t sink your account to the point of no return. Let’s say you run a €10,000 account and you’ve already jammed €1,000 into the trade. A safe place to set your stop loss would be a potential drawdown of 2%, or €200. In pip terms, that’s equal to 20 pips. To get to that 1:15 ratio, your desired profit level should be 300 pips, aiming for a reward of €3,000. If materialized, the €3,000 profit will bump your account by 30% (that’s your return on equity), while your return on investment will surge 200%. And if you take the loss, you’d lose 2% of your total balance. It’s How the Big Guys in the Industry Do It You’d be surprised to know that most of the Wall Street legends have made their fortunes riding asymmetric bets. Short-term currency speculator George Soros explains how he broke the Bank of England with a one-way bet that risked no more than 4% of his fund’s capital to make over $1 billion in profits. Ray Dalio talks about it when he says that one of the most important things in investing is to balance your aggressiveness and defensiveness. “In trading you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time. If you are not aggressive, you are not going to make money, and if you are not defensive, you are not going to keep money.” Paul Tudor Jones, another highly successful trader, spotlights the skewed risk-reward ratio as his path to big profits. “5:1 (risk /reward),” he says in an interview with motivational speaker Tony Robbins,” five to one means I’m risking one dollar to make five. What five to one does is allow you to have a hit ratio of 20%. I can actually be a complete imbecile. I can be wrong 80% of the time, and I’m still not going to lose.” What’s Your Risk-Reward Ratio? 🤑 Are you using the risk-reward ratio to get the most out of your trades? Do you cut the losses and let your profits run by using stop losses and take profits? Share your experience below and let’s spin up a nice discussion!
Education
by TradingView
10
Introduction to Relative Strength or Ratio 1-2In part one (linked) we discussed how to construct and use relative strength ratios (RS) in trading and analysis. We also discussed common errors and best use. In part two we finish that general discussion. In part three we will analyze consumer staples verses consumers discretionary and begin to discuss other ratios that I find useful. How do spreads correct? One mistake is assuming that a spread will always be corrected by the rich security moving lower to meet the cheaper security. In actuality there are multiple ways a spread can correct. For instance, the rich market corrects lower relative to the cheaper market, the rich market declines while the cheap market rises, or the rich market remains relatively fixed while the cheap market rallies. And remember, this is all done within the context of the broader market trend. This isn't particularly important when using spreads as informative to the business or market cycle (as I do). But if you are trading pairs (which outside of rates markets, I don't) the legs should generally be market neutral or directionally ambivalent. Along this same line, if the dollar value of the two legs is vastly different, the share counts must be adjusted to close to money neutral or the disproportionally large side of the trade will dominate. This can also be an issue when the notional amounts of the two instruments are very different. For instance, two-year futures verses ten-year futures. Twos represent 200k notional while tens represent 100k notional. They also have far different sensitivities (duration) to a given change in rates. It should also be recognized that some sectors or ETFs are dominated by one or two very large names that skew directionality in favor of those few names. Looking for ETFs comprised of equally weighted components will mostly eliminate this issue. For instance equal weighted consumer staples (RSPS) verses equal weighted consumer discretionary (RSPD). It's extremely important that you know what you are measuring. A good example is the change in the ratio between investment grade bonds (LQD) and high yield bonds (HYG). A quick glance at the chart might suggest that High Yield is weakening relative to Investment Grade. The easy conclusion would be that fundamentals in the high yield sector were deteriorating and investors were exiting HYG. While fundamentals are modestly deteriorating in HYG more quickly than in LQD, the dominant driver is the difference in duration between the two sectors. This can be seen when running the ratio between ten year and three-year treasuries and comparing it to LQD/HYG. Many analysts smooth the RS line with moving averages. This is particularly useful when adjusting for the higher volatility of shorter time frames. This isn't my preference. First, I prefer to use longer periods (particularly weekly) in my analysis. Second, while averages are useful, they aren't an essential part of my own analysis toolkit. But there is value and moving averages can be used on spreads just as they are used on the underlying securities. Finally, ratios can provide tremendous insight into economy and market cycles, for instance when, after a long RS decline, copper begins to strengthen relative to gold, the industrial economy may be entering the early stage of recovery. Or when consumer staples RS inflects higher relative to consumer discretionary it's likely that the outlook for the consumer, and by extrapolation the economy, is weakening. In future parts we will discuss and illustrate several of these ratios. And finally, many of the topics and techniques discussed in this post are part of the CMT Associations Chartered Market Technician’s curriculum. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Taylor Financial Communications Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
AMEX:LQDEducation
by CMT_Association
7
Introduction to Relative Strength or Ratio 1-1This is part one of a series on relative strength ratios. Part One: Relative Strength Ratio (RS) analysis is used to compare one markets performance with that of another. The RS line provides a direct comparison of strength or weakness relative to the another. RS analysis is particularly useful for active institutional managers who are judged relative to a benchmark as opposed to individual investors who are constrained by producing an absolute return. But understanding ratios opens a world of spread or pairs trading and provides valuable insight into the market environment. To be clear, the relative strength ratio has nothing to do with Welles Wilders Relative Strength Index (RSI). RSI is a momentum oscillator designed to evaluate a single security as opposed to a ratio comparing one security to another. Using ratio analysis, bonds can be compared to equities, commodities to bonds, domestic equities to global equities, gold to copper, country to country, currency to currency, industry sector to industry sector, specific companies or sectors to broader indices, country to country and even individual equities. Choices of pairs are extensive. Importantly, once charted, the RS line can be analyzed as any other security. Support and resistance, channels, and momentum indicators can all be applied to the RS line. With literally thousands of securities to be compared the limits of RS analysis is only limited by the imagination of the analyst. The analyst does need to be careful. There needs to be a clear and intuitive economic linkage between the two securities before setting up ratio charts. There can also be issues when two securities, despite having a clear linkage, have a dynamic third variable such as currency translation or large differences in duration such as the LQD/HYG example that we will cover in future parts. Relative Strength is calculated by dividing one security's price by a second security's price (the "base" security). The result of this division is the ratio, or relationship, between the two securities. When the RS line is rising, the numerator (top) security is outperforming the denominator (bottom) security. When the numerator security is falling, the numerator is underperforming the denominator security. If the RS is moving laterally, there is no performance advantage to either the numerator or denominator. When looking at spreads I mostly prefer to use the ratio rather than the net price difference between two markets. Using ratios allows the analyst to make comparisons between markets priced in different units. For instance, Oil and Gold or cotton and the CRB. One exception to this would be when directly comparing one ratio to another ratio. In this case both ratios need to be normalized to a common starting value (I use 100) to adjust for large differences in numerators that could skew the RS line higher or lower relative to the RS line. I find ratios most useful over longer time perspectives for business and economic insight. However, many traders/investors use them in shorter time perspectives as they create spread trades or aggressively switch between sectors. When I was actively trading bond/note futures I used extremes and technical analysis of the RS line on the hourly chart to help manage my curve trades. In this series we will explore the construction of relative strength ratios, their best use, and make technical evaluations of several ratios and what that analysis implies. And finally, many of the topics and techniques discussed in this post are part of the CMT Associations Chartered Market Technician’s curriculum. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Taylor Financial Communications Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
AMEX:XLPEducation
by CMT_Association
7
Risk:Reward Ratio. What is it?Risk to reward ratio. What is it? What does it mean and how do we use it? Now, if you made it to the point where you're here on TradingView, there's a good chance that you have heard about Risk to Reward ratio. Today, I want to dive into what it really means and how to actually utilize it. I see so many beginners missing out on huge profits and opportunities because of their risk reward ratio and I want to share my knowledge of this tool and how to actually use it in the future. Firstly, let's dive into what is the risk/reward ratio? The RR ratio is a tool that can accurately predict by expected returns based off of previous results. This tool measures how much reward you are estimated to gain based off of the dollar amount you risk. For example, if you have a risk to reward ratio of 1:3, it means for every $1 you risk, you will gain a return of $3 in the event of a positive trade. Using the same example in the FX market, let's say you're risking 10 pips on EURUSD, your take profit is at 30 pips. This means you gain 30 pips in the event of a win, lose 10 pips in the event of a loss, giving you a 1:3 risk/reward ratio. This is a very powerful tool because compared with the win rate and in correlation, you can actually predict based off of your previous results, you're expected returns on investment. Being able to predict what you're expected returns are are great way of giving you milestone targets, but also when you're looking at getting funded with prop firms, you also know what you are actually able to achieve in what time frame. Now, it goes without saying, the higher your risk to reward ratio, the less you need to win in order to maintain profitability. The opposite, the lower your risk reward ratio, the higher win rate is required to maintain profitability. But this is where we get into where I find beginners struggle. A lot of people will base their strategies on their risk/reward ratios, which is understandable if you're building the strategy from scratch. If you're using a prebuilt strategy or something that doesn't really correlate with risk/reward ratio. Then it makes it obsolete and just confusing. Going back to my first point, risk to reward ratio is a tool that you can use to estimate future potential returns based off of previous results. Let's say you have 100 trades worth of data. You can accurately have a look at what is your risk to reward ratio is and compare that with your win rate. From there you can make a decision whether or not that is a profitable strategy. On top of that, you can then start to look to improve either your win rate and risk to reward ratio, knowing that that is an area that needs improvement. When it comes to improving your risk to reward ratio, one thing that always grinds my gears with traders, is when they enter a trade, they'll set their stop loss and take profits based on their risk to reward ratio not based on the actual analytics of the trade. While I understand this and with some strategies, this can work. For most, they end up setting those take profits in areas that is just realistically is going to be really hard for the price to get to. What professionals do when trying to improve the risks of reward ratio is only take those setups where a good take profit is viable around that level of risk to reward. For example, in this chart, we are looking at buying the USDCAD over the next couple of weeks. We like this setup. We've had our entry signal and we're going to place a stop loss below that recent low, which was created early last week. We are not happy with our risk to reward ratio. We think we're leaving too much profit on the table and want to increase our overall results. So I'm only taking trades that have close to a three to one risk to reward ratio. But as you can see by this chart that dotted lines are areas of resistance which we are going to have to break in order to achieve that level of profitability. There are 5 different zones we are going to have to get through in order for my take profit to be hit, it is fair to say the odds are not in my favor. Now a beginner Trader will still enter this trade with the same take profit and the same stop loss and just hold on. The reason they'll do that is because they want the 1:3 risk reward ratio. They don't care where the profit target is. What matters is it is 3 times worth what they're risking. On the other hand, A professional trader will actually either let this trade go and not enter it, or look for another entry point later on on smaller timeframes to where you can fit that risk to reward ratio and you're not going to hit the high levels of resistance. To sum up what my point is, risk to reward ratio is a very powerful tool to understand what you are capable of the trader and also where you can improve. It is not a valid take profit selection strategy. Yes, it can definitely help with guidelines on where to set your take profit, but it should not be the sole reason your take profit is set at a certain price just because it is X amount whatever you are risking. Have a look at what the chart is telling you and what your analysis is telling you. Then, only take the trades which coincide with the risk to reward ratio. You want to achieve. I hope you enjoyed this insight and I hope it was beneficial to you. I recommend highly diving into your previous trading data. Have a look at your win rate. Have a look at your risk reward ratio and understand what your profitability expectation really is and base your future decisions off of that data. Have a fantastic trading we can I look forward to seeing your comments. - Jordon
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by the5erstrading
5
Pulse of an asset via Fibonacci: SPX true 4.236 correction done?"Impulse" is a surge that creates "Ripples", like a pebble into water. Each of the Ripples has precise bounds defined by the "Golden Ratio". Until a new Impulse occurs, the Price oscillates within "Energy Bands". The Golden Ratio is the underlying building block of the entire Universe. From the Arms of a Spiral Galaxy, to the Bones of Your Fingers, it's in there. If there IS a God, then we will surely find Him/Her/It thru the Golden Ratio. Shown here is the SP500 Index, and the correction started by a Covid variant. 500 large companies, each with hundreds of variables, worth trillions of dollars. Yet, the "Answer" to that ridiculously complicated equation is "The Golden Ratio". 4.236 is the most common wave endpoint, so the correction may well be done. The numerous "Pings" along the wave front confirm the validity of the fib series. The "Impulse Core" (the golden pocket) will be the strongest resistance in this area. . My TV collection of ideas detailing the Concepts: Chapter 1: Introduction and numerous Examples Chapter 2: Detailed views and Wave Analysis Chapter 3: The Dreaded 9.618: Murderer of Moves Chapter 4: Impulse Redux: Return to Birth place Chapter 5: Golden Growth: Parabolic Expansions Chapter 6: Give me a ping Vasili: 'one' Ping only .
FOREXCOM:SPX500Education
by EuroMotif
2
EW FIBONACCI Ratios, FIB Retracement and Extension application !In this post, I'm going to focus on Fib Retracement and Fib Extension Ratios by Elliott Wave, and show you how to best use these tools. Fibonacci ratios are mathematical ratios derived from the Fibonacci sequence.The Fibonacci sequence is the work of Leonardo Fibonacci. Fibonacci sequence is used in many applications, movies and photography, space studies, stock market actions, and many other fields. Fibonacci is a proven approach for measure price movement relationships. For Elliott heads, it means Fibonacci numbers are tools to help guide us in our interpretation where we think price movements will go. The most common Fibonacci ratios used in the stock markets are: 1 - 1,272 - 1,618 - 2,618 -3,618- 4.23 (extension) 0.236 - 0.382 - 0.5 - 0.618 - 0.786 (retracement) Let's start with Elliott Impulsive Wave rules ! Wave 1: the beginning of each wave and retracet with Wave 2: may never retrace deeper than the beginning of wave 1 Wave 3: often the longest, but never the shortest Wave 4: may never retrace below the top of wave 1 Wave 5: x Fibonacci ratios : Wave 2 The most common retracements we look for in a Wave 2 pullback are either a 0.5 or 0.618 retracement of Wave 1 We expect only 12% of Wave 2 to hold 0,382 retracements of Wave 1 We anticipate 73% of Wave 2 retracements between 0,5 to 0,618 We anticipate 15% of Wave 2 to retrace below the 62% Wave 3 Wave 3 is related to Wave 1 Fibonacci relationships: Wave 3 is either 1,618 length of Wave 1 or 2,618 the length of Wave 1 or 4,236 the length of Wave 1 The most common multiples of Wave 1 to Wave 3 are the 1,618 and 2,618 If Wave 3 is extending, we typically look for 4,236 or higher Only approximately 2% will a Wave 3 be less than Wave 1 We anticipate 15% of Wave 3 trade between 1 and 1,618 of Wave 1 We can anticipate 45% of the time Wave 3 will push to between 1,618 and 1,75 We can anticipate 8% of Wave 3 will extend beyond 2,618 or higher Wave 4 Wave 4 is related to Wave 3 0,236 of Wave 3 or 0,382 of Wave 3 or 0,50 of Wave 3 or 0,618 of Wave 3 We can anticipate only 15% of the time Wave 4 to retrace between 0,236 to 0,382 We can anticipate 60% of the time Wave 4 to retrace between 0,382 and 0,5 We can anticipate 15% of the time Wave 4 to retrace between 0,5 and 0,618 We can anticipate 10% of the time Wave 4 retrace 0,618 or greater Wave 5 Wave 5 has two relationships. Wave 5 has a direct correlation to the Fibonacci relationship of Wave 3 1. If Wave 3 is greater than 1.62, or extended Wave 5 is a 1 to 1 or 1.618 of Wave 1 or 2,618 of Wave 1 I don't know any statistics, but in my experience a 1.618 or 1 to 1 is the most likely 2. If Wave 3 is less than 1,618. Wave 5 will often overextend.The ratio of Wave 5 will be based on the length from the beginning of Wave 1 to the top of Wave 3 Extended Wave 5 is either 0,618 from the beginning of Wave 1 to top of Wave 3 or 1,618 Unfortunately, my english is not so good and I work with google translate, but if you have any questions I will be happy to answer them . ➡️If you like my posts smash the like👍👍 button, comment or follow me. It helps me to publish more free education, also on request ⬅️ Fib retracement and Extension application follow 📚
Education
by TR7z
114
Fibonacci 101Fibonacci retracements follow a mathematical principle set forth by Leonardo Fibonacci. To put it simply - each level is a ratio between two other numbers, and there are countless examples of them being respected in the stock market, forex, crypto, commodities - you name it. For this reason, it's an essential tool in the technical trader's toolbox. There are many uses for this tool: Finding regions of support or resistance Helping with stop loss placement Establishing targets to take profit - especially during price discovery (no existing S/R levels) Rules of Thumb While placement of your anchor points is somewhat subjective - a rule of thumb is to stick with glaringly obvious swing points . Simple is best with this tool - one of the reasons that it works is that other traders (or trading algorithms) are watching the same regions of price as you are. No need to overcomplicate it! For a bullish retracement (+ targets) - begin your Fibonacci at a swing low, and end it at a swing high. For a bearish retracement (+ targets) - begin your Fibonacci at a swing high, and end it at a swing low. Personalizing Your Settings The way I have my Fibonacci retracement tool configured, it includes some trend-based Fibonacci extensions in the calculations as well. This can be done by opening your Fibonacci settings and adjusting the inputs. The levels I have as inputs are as follows: 0 - This is your starting point 0.236 - The shallowest retracement 0.382 - Shallow retracement 0.5 - While not a Fibonacci number, this is the midpoint of your swing 0.618 - Commonly referred to as the "Golden Pocket" - this is generally a very important region of support/resistance. 0.705 - While not a Fibonacci number, this is the midpoint between the 0.618 and 0.786 - a level that tends to see lots of activity, and is thus included in my settings. 0.786 - This is the deepest retracement before a full retrace. 1 - This is your ending point -0.27 - While not a Fibonacci number, a very commonly used extension target during price discovery - Target #1. -0.414 - While not a Fibonacci number, a very commonly used extension target during price discovery - Target #2. -0.618 - This is your golden ratio - Target #3 during price discovery. -1 - This is a 100% extension of the distance between your starting & ending point. etc, etc - you can extend as far as you like! Where Fibonacci extensions really shine is during price discovery - areas where there are no previous levels of support or resistance (new ATH's). You can see on this $SPY chart - using our Fib tool on the COVID crash gave us some very accurate upside targets for the subsequent rally into new ATH's. I hope this introduction to the Fibonacci Retracement tool on TradingView helped you develop a basic understanding of it's applications - make sure to like if you learned something and follow us for more! Will, OptionsSwing Analyst
AMEX:SPYEducation
by optionsswing
70
Call Ratio Spread DebitThe ratio call spread for debit is the same strategy as ratio call spread credit. But now, the upper and lower strike price are farther apart. This change, give different mathematical results as you can see on the chart. If you didn’t read the previous post, please do. In the chart we see a ratio spread of 2:1, in this case, the options that were sold are now worth less than the call that was bought. So this position is now with debit. Inputs: MA (Mastercard) Debit paid -> 3.8 (-$380 for one position) Stock price -> 338 Upper strike -> 350 , 2 calls sold Lower strike -> 330 , 1 call bought Days to expire -> 36 Implied Volatility -> 0.309 (30.9%) Date -> 12/11/2020 The Debit paid is $380, the maximum profit is $1620 with less than 1% probability, the maximum loss is theoretically unlimited. In this example, one call was bought at 330 strike price for 12.7 and two calls were sold at 350 strike price for 4.45 each, in total 8.9. The debit = 8.9-12.7 = (-3.8) If at expiration the stock price will be below the lower strike (330), all of the options will be worthless and the loss will be only (-$380). Maximum profit = Difference between strike – debit paid = 350-330 – 3.8 = 16.2 This position is neutral. At the expiration: Between 333.8 to 366.2 the position will be with a profit. $0 - $1620 Under 330.17 the position will lose (-$380) no matter what price. Above 369.80 the risk is getting bigger.
NYSE:MAEducation
by ZoharCho
1
Call Ratio Spread CreditA ratio call spread is a neutral strategy in which we buy several calls at a lower strike and sells more calls at a higher strike. In a ratio call spread with credit, there is no downside risk. The ratio spread that we see on the chart has a ratio of 2:1. We can see from the chart the non-linear behavior of options. Inputs: MA (Mastercard) Credit received -> 3.1 ($310 for one position) Stock price -> 332 Upper strike -> 340 , 2 calls sold Lower strike -> 330 , 1 call bought Days to expire -> 37 Implied Volatility -> 0.291 (29.1%) Date -> 11/11/2020 The credit received is $310, the maximum profit is $1310 with less than 1% probability, the maximum loss is theoretically unlimited. In this example, one call was bought at 330 strike price for 14.2 and two calls were sold at 340 strike price for 8.65 each, in total 17.3. The credit = 17.3-14.2 = 3.1 If at expiration the stock price will be below the lower strike (330), all of the options will be worthless and all the credit will be received. The maximum profit at expiration for a ratio spread occurs if the stock is exactly at the striking price of the sold options. The reason is that the call that was bought has some profit (stock price above strike price) and the sold options are worthless. Maximum profit = The spread (340-330=10) + Credit received (17.3) – Debit paid (14.2) = 13.1 => $1310 (mulitpling by 100 shers per option contract) The risk in this position is to the upside. The calculation for the break-even at expiration. Break-even point = Upper strike price + the points of max profit = 340+13.1=353.1 This strategy has a high probability in general and even more so when used correctly. The example that has been used could profit the most in the blue zone, where the profit is greater than 50% of the maximum profit, but it will take 34 days out of 37 to reach there. How implied volatility affect this position? In a ratio spread, there are more options sold than bought, in the previous posts we saw that volatility increase is harming sold options and benefits bought options, this example is no different. 10% increase in implied volatility, the lines are now in a worse location compare to the original position. 10% decrease in implied volatility, the lines are now in a better location compare to the original position. The position can now reach the 50% max profit zone in 30 days. The next post will be on ratio spread debit, that looks different from the ratio spread credit, the solution to the partial differential equations of the Black-Scholes model can be seen.
NYSE:MAEducation
by ZoharCho
1
Advanced Tradingview CalculationsThis is a tutorial on how to get the most out of Tradingview by using advanced price calculations. The focus will be on crypto, and more specifically bitcoin. Nevertheless these tricks can be applied to other assets as well. Let's say you want to look at the current bitcoin price. The problem is that there are a lot of different exchanges and they all have different prices. Sure they're all around the same price level, but there's still a difference. So it would be quite useful if we could just look at an average price of all the most relevant markets. Here's how you can make that happen... Average price calculation First you click on the ticker on the top left, which will open the ticker tab. Open the parenthesis by typing: "(". Next you look for the markets you're interested in. In the example on the chart (bottom left line chart) I made an average for Coinbase, Bitstamp, Bitfinex and Binance. So you start typing "BTCUSD" and then with the up/down arrow keys on your keyboard you can select the exchanges you want. Each time you select an exchange you type: "+". Then type "BTCUSD" again and select another exchange. The binance pair is versus USDT instead of USD. So to easily find that market type "BTCUSDT". Once you're done selecting markets you close the parenthesis and divide the whole thing by the amount of markets you've chosen. In my example I took 4 markets so I divided it by 4. Finally press enter. Now you have a price chart that's an average of all the markets you selected. Converted currency price chart On the top left you see a red line chart. This is the Bitflyer spot market. There's an issue though, it's a Japanese Yen pair. I would like to be able to compare it to USD markets. So let's convert it and make a price chart with USD values. Just like last time, open the ticker tab. Look for "BTCJPY" and select the Bitflyer market. Now type "*". We're going to multiply it with a forex pair. Type "JPYUSD" and select a forex pair. When that's done you press enter and your price chart will be in USD instead of JPY! Making ratio's There's so much possible with these types of calculations, but I'll share one more trick to give you some inspiration. Let's compare certain markets with each other and create ratios. To the chart on the right you can see in green a ratio of some of the top USD markets in relation to the top USDT markets. This way we can see which markets have a premium or a discount. It always starts the same way: open the ticker tab. First open the parenthesis: "(". Just like with the average price calculation you're going to select a few USD markets of your liking. I used Coinbase, Bitstamp and Bitfinex for this example. Don't forget to type "+" in between each market. Then close the parenthesis and divide the selected USD markets by 3 (because I'm using 3 markets here). Now type "-" and open the parenthesis again. We're going to add a few USDT markets just like we did for USD. I used Binance, Huobi and Poloniex. Again close the parenthesis and divide by 3. And finally press enter of course. The price chart will be replaced by the ratio and it'll look kind of messy. Let's make it look like a nice indicator. You can do this by clicking on the "compare" button and doing the entire calculation there. It'll add a big fat orange line on top of your price chart. By clicking on the three dots you can click on "new pane below". Then go to the style settings and change it to your liking. I made it green and decided to use a line chart with markers. Looks pretty nice. Interesting ratio too... The blue ratio on the top of the chart is a simple Coinbase/Bitfinex comparison. Click the "compare" button again and type the following formula: COINBASE:BTCUSD-BITFINEX:BTCUSD This way you can see which exchange is more bullish/bearish. That's all I have for you today. Hopefully you found it interesting.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by UnknownUnicorn2188849
23
The myth of hyperinflation series- #3. Fed's effectivenessHow effective are Fed's monetary policies and tools? Fed has three simple goals- Grow GDP, keep inflation rate steady and keep the unemployment rate low. Some argue that Fed's perceived power over the market was exposed during several occasions- #1. During the 2008 in the midst of sub-prime mortgage crisis, the market continued to plunge despite the Fed's efforts to bail out Fannie & Freddie and other financial institutions, implement the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and issue $800b stimulus package. The market finally stopped the bleeding in early March 2009. #2. When Fed ended the QE3 in 2014 by announcing its attention to raise the interest rate and slash the Fed balance sheet, many people believed market would crash. Instead, market shot up to ATH in 2015. #3. This year during the onset of the Covid-19 crisis, Fed started out by cutting the rate by half percentage to no avail. Afterwards, Fed intensified its intervention effort by reducing Fed fund rate to zero. Nonetheless, the market tanked another 15% before it hit the bottom. One can point to the Fed-induced booming housing market in early 2000 as the major factor for the fast economic recovery after the Dot.com bubble and uses it as the counter example. Market is driven by crowd sentiment, but crowd sentiment, which in turns, is partially driven by Fed's decision. It is a chicken and egg conundrum. They both influence each other, but the degree to which each influences one another is impossible to discern. The safe conclusion to draw is that it would be overly optimistic to rely on Fed to get us out of the next financial crisis unscathed as it will take more and more stimulus package to get the job done. The best it can do is to mitigate the severity of damage. Next, let's examine some of the conditions and criteria that are related to inflation.
FRED:GFDEBTNEducation
by Libratus
1
Risk on/Risk off, XLY:XLP ratios, THE Real money flow indicator.Was recently shown this little gem of a ratio chart that will help gauge strength to certain markets such as the stocks and other financial instruments as the S&P, Dow Jones etc So what does it all mean?? The ratio of two diametrically opposed asset classes often provides insightful clues about what investors are doing. The XLY:XLP ratio is a perfect example. Its not a hypothetical as it uses real money data based on what investors are DOING and NOT what they maybe thinking or projecting... XLY represents the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF. XLP represents the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF. XLY is the ETF which tracks the consumer discretionary sector XLY’s top 5 holdings are... Comcast (CMCSK), Walt Disney (DIS), Amazon.com (AMZN), Home Depot (HD), McDonald’s (MCD). XLP tracks the consumer staples sector, with top holdings of... Procter & Gamble (PG), Coca-Cola (KO), Philip Morris (PM), Wal-Mart (WMT), CVS Caremark (CVS). So how does this affect markets? When the chart value rises its a clear indicator that people are happy to spend freely and without caution, investors will look to increase risk, where as if the value starts to go down and decline, people are spending more on everyday essential items and thus stock markets are in shrinkage, decline and investors are taking LESS risk. we can clearly see how this chart reflects current highs on the stock indices if we compare to the current S&P500, Russel, Dow Jones and so on If this article has helped or you have any further questions, please leave them in the comments below.....
AMEX:XLYEducation
by majorlee
1
HYPERBITCOINIZATION: Shiller 10Yr Price/Earnings Ratio (S&P500)Similar to dividend yield price:earnings (P/E) looks at the profitability of stock shares. A high P/E ratio means that stocks are becoming less profitable which indicates that they are overvalued. When the market becomes overvalued it is a sign to attentive investors to stop buying and think about closing positions. The more a market heats up, the more the proportion of cautious investors gives way to reckless investors and day trading / speculation. Such a runaway process does not carry on indefinitely. it will correct. The Shiller P/E is therefore a warning to investors of an impending crash. Shiller calculates the ratio for a given year over the proceeding 10 year period (adjusted for inflation). This approach helps to dampen short-term, intra-year "noise". It allows us to visualise risk and make direct comparison with market history. Shiller calculates Price/Earnings as follows: 1) For any given date, take the yearly earnings of the S&P500 -0.24% -0.24% for the previous ten years. 2) Adjust for inflation based on Consumer Price Index 3) Take the average 4) Divide current price of S&P500 -0.24% -0.24% by the average calculated above. 5) Repeat for every year in the chart Data provided by Quandl.
MULTPL:SHILLER_PE_RATIO_MONTHEducation
by RealMcafee
How to properly scale your chartsMany charting tools require a proper scaling of price / time. This is the method I'm using to scale my charts if needed. 1) Draw a rectangle somewhere on your chart 2) Set it's coordinates to 1:1 So if the price coordinates are 300/350 , set the bar (time) coordinates to have the same difference of 50 in this case 3) Draw a "Fib Speed Resistance Arc". You can find it in the second tool bar menu where you also find the Fib Retracement 4) Set it's PRICE coordinates to the same you have set for the rectangle. For both BAR coordinates you use the smaller number from the rectangle bar coordinates. Now after you have done that drag one axis (price or time) and move it around. Watch the upper right corner of the rectangle cross with the fib arcs. If it crosses with the 1 fib arc, you have a 1:1 scaling. On the chart example you can see it cross the 3 fib arc so the scaling is 3:1 If you found a nice scaling, right-click the price axis and select "Lock Scale" so you can zoom in and out of the chart without changing the scaling. You can try the following scaling ratios: 0.5 / 1 / 1.272 / 1.414 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / ... also all the X.618 ratios could be usefull. (0.618 / 1.618 / 2.618 / 3.618 / ... ) Let me know how this works out for you and feel free to leave a comment if something is unclear. Cheerz : ]
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by MagnusTradingGroup
11