HYPERBITCOINIZATION: Shiller 10Yr Price/Earnings Ratio (S&P500)

Similar to dividend yield price:earnings (P/E) looks at the profitability of stock shares. A high P/E ratio means that stocks are becoming less profitable which indicates that they are overvalued.

When the market becomes overvalued it is a sign to attentive investors to stop buying and think about closing positions. The more a market heats up, the more the proportion of cautious investors gives way to reckless investors and day trading / speculation. Such a runaway process does not carry on indefinitely. it will correct.

The Shiller P/E is therefore a warning to investors of an impending crash.

Shiller calculates the ratio for a given year over the proceeding 10 year period (adjusted for inflation ). This approach helps to dampen short-term, intra-year "noise". It allows us to visualise risk and make direct comparison with market history.

Shiller calculates Price/ Earnings as follows:
1) For any given date, take the yearly earnings of the S&P500 -0.24% -0.24% for the previous ten years.
2) Adjust for inflation based on Consumer Price Index
3) Take the average
4) Divide current price of S&P500 -0.24% -0.24% by the average calculated above.
5) Repeat for every year in the chart

Data provided by Quandl.


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