I'd say we nailed it. But, wait for the real move, it hasn't happened yet.
A surprisingly dovish Powell just disappointed his loyal followers, with a beat around the bush response to the seemingly out of control long end of the curve, and made zero mention of the upcoming SLR exemption. If banks don't get an extension on this, they're going to have to sell treasuries to cover the reserve requirement. 2% here we come!
Global futures are mixed on Wednesday morning, while the US majors are extending losses, after an ugly session yesterday, which saw the Nasdaq (QQQ) lose the critical neckline, after losing the 50 day MA earlier on in the week. The SPY is poised to open at the 50 day MA around 380.70, which has acted as strong support as recently as Jan 29th. If we see a break...
He's back baby. If the upper green resistance line breaks, we're going back to 91.50...
US Markets traded relatively flat in the overnight session, with European and Asian markets getting clobbered. The FTSE 100 was down 1.75%, with CAC 40 seeing a 1% sell-off. The Hang Seng was down by as much as 4%, while Japan's Nikkei 225 saw a 2.7% drop. I think it goes without saying that yields across the globe are rising, particularly on the long end of the...
Watch for a potential overnight correction in risk assets tonight or tomorrow off the back of a large spike in yields to 1.50%. Are we finally seeing the catalyst we've been waiting for? God I hope so... Follow the conversation live at www.hedgeoftheworld.com
Well, well, well. The 10Y yield clipped 1.466% on Thursday morning, after spiking yesterday to 1.39%. As a reminder, according to Nomura, the 1.50% level is a CTA short trigger level, and could have a major negative impact on equity prices if breached. On top of that, we have several investment banks watching the 2% level, where, Morgan Stanley in particular, sees...
Back on Dec 1 when we initially discussed the possibility that the bond market was poised for a correction/crash, we didnt anticipate this as a stairs up move with the 10Y on the verge of breaking .90% and approaching the 1% mark. However, the rise since August has been persistent, and we're now approaching the 100MA (w) around 1.34%. When credit markets do break,...
Global markets are simply unstoppable at the moment. According to Zero Hedge, the MSCI World index just saw it's longest winning streak in 17 years, having risen for the past 12 days in a row. Jerry must be dancing naked in front of the mirror every morning without fail. What a clown. The US majors were up around half a percent on Tuesday morning, with the scent...
Global markets continue to march higher, as every last short position in the world of trading is squeezed to death in seemingly coordinated fashion. While large HF's continue to frontrun retail orderflow, they'll continue to know exactly what retail traders are doing at every moment, and how to take full advantage on the way up, and on the way down with their...
After a choppy day yesterday, which looked nothing like efficient price action to me, US Futures melted up from around 1AM. We saw some weakness earlier on in the session, but the losses were quickly reversed, just as they were in the cash market. We're currently trading near all-time high's once agian, as a busy earnings week continues with Microsoft and AMD...
If I were a betting man, I'd say the 10Y yield looks poised to test 1.20% as early as this week. A weak 20Y auction which saw $24 Billion in demand at a significantly higher yield than December, could be indicating weakness in the bond market.
Global Futures traded lower on Friday morning, as Biden's "rescue" proposal disappointed investors, as it fell short of infinity at $1.9 Trillion. When that $1,400 is spent in a month, what next? Chair Powell mentioned yesterday that there was a possibility of rate hikes in the future and a tightening of monetary policy (room for a change in policy), but that it...
Futures traded sideways again in the overnight session, and have been stuck in a tight range since last week Friday, when we saw a nasty payrolls print. This morning's jobless claims came in ugly with 965K new claims, the highest level since August, and 5.271MM continuing claims, a rare rise from last weeks 5.072MM. Import and Export prices came in higher than...
The risk free rate took a breather yesterday, and then again today, as (yesterday) the 10Y auction was a smash success, followed by a near record 30Y auction today. We saw $38 Billion in demand in the 10Y auction, driving yields lower, toward the 1.11% level. Then after the 30Y auction today, the 10Y yield was hammered back to 1.08%. Members of the FED made their...
US futures traded sideways in the overnight session, as investors took in the view, and breathed in the thin air from the top of Mount Everest. We saw a light sell off yesterday, which was relentlessly bought into, and the moral of the story was this: bulls were able to successfully defend the 21EMA on the hourly at the open, throughout the day, and again at the...
I've been hearing from many of my colleagues, most of whom are experienced traders, that rates are not going to rise anytime soon. 2023, 2024, 2025, all common projections for when rates will rise. Yet, we've observed the 10Y yield rising a whopping 120% since the beginning of August, to 1.13% today. Morgan Stanley said in a recent report, which I've mentioned in...
Stocks are irrationally exuberant again this morning after soaring in the overnight session as tensions at the Capitol subside, and Biden is (finally) declared the victor of the election. Is anyone surprised to see another gap up this morning? I'm certainly not, but I do suspect that as we approach the top of the white channel around 378, which is an arms length...