GOLD Weekly Forecast 10-14 October 2022 We can see that currently the volatility is around 3.65% for this week, rising from the 3.56% from the last week. Currently there is around 24.9% that the asset is going to close either above or below the channel: TOP 1754 BOT 1634 The current volatility percentile is around 90th, placing us in very risky environment. With...
Not to beat a dead horse but Gold is back to try and test a breakout of the downtrend resistance it's been fighting since ATH back in August. Made a couple attempts to break above overnight around 1917 spot Now kinda of treading water on the downtrend DXY back on the lows...USD could rally from here and get a reaction out of GLD Stimulus mostly priced in by now...
My understanding of the GVX gold implied volatility index from CBOE reading 10.44% is approximately 16% probability of gold finishing > 1300 in the next 30 days. Based on the annualized GVX rate of 10.4% and divide by the sqrt(12) = we get a 30 day expected expected move range. This means a 1 standard deviation range of 68% probability of the price...
... Probably my favourite market to be long vol. Historically the model tends to signal preceding large price movements.