My understanding of the GVX gold implied volatility index from CBOE reading 10.44% is approximately 16% probability of gold finishing > 1300 in the next 30 days.
Based on the annualized GVX rate of 10.4% and divide by the sqrt(12) = we get a 30 day expected expected move range.
This means a 1 standard deviation range of 68% probability of the price finishing between approximately 1230 - 1305 by August.
Based on the GVX implied volatility as an annualized rate .... projected out 1 year the 1 SD range would be approx 1135-1400.
Any thoughts on trading gold using the CBOE GVX ?
Another interesting index is GVZ where the implied volatility is based on the GLD ETF. (Link attached below)
Based on the annualized GVX rate of 10.4% and divide by the sqrt(12) = we get a 30 day expected expected move range.
This means a 1 standard deviation range of 68% probability of the price finishing between approximately 1230 - 1305 by August.
Based on the GVX implied volatility as an annualized rate .... projected out 1 year the 1 SD range would be approx 1135-1400.
Any thoughts on trading gold using the CBOE GVX ?
Another interesting index is GVZ where the implied volatility is based on the GLD ETF. (Link attached below)