Soybeans: Price continued its sideways move during the past week, be it with a wider range than before. The continuation pattern is still intact which indicates that the 1120/1130 range is still a valid target. We would have liked to see same target reached during the past week which did not happen and which makes us additionally wary. We want to hang on to our...
*EDIT in text quote on left of chart - *Synchronicity in between I have created an equally weighted portfolio of 5 sustenance based commodities including Soybean, Soybean Oil, Sugar, Wheat, and Maize (continuous fwd contracts). This is an update to the first chart I have published (rough rice) which isn't updating for some reason but if you see the RR1! graph on...
Sideway action as the trend slope of the trend has become steeper. Not saying the uptrend is over, but stalling, especially since RSI and Stochastik start to indicate some divergence. Short call spreads seems to be good risk/reward IMHO. Wouldn't be buying puts as the premium will deteriorate as long as the market doesn't sell off.
Sugar is at a very interesting spot for a short trade. Although this is an aggressive entry, the potential reward makes the trade be worth a try. We have a clear sentiment extreme, and rgmov alerts of hidden selling, plotting lower lows when the market is going for a sharp climactic ascent. We also have divergence in CCI, so you could consider shorts if the next...
I still haven't come across any compelling justification to get long besides my technical read. Most fundamentals, crop yields, weather all appear to suggest we go further south but we are now in my buy zone
Price broke down, and is testing and holding near lower Median Line on Modified Schiff
Soybeans: Price has been moving mostly sideways between, roughly 1060 and 1090 during the past 7 or 8 sessions which usually is a continuation pattern. This means that there is, principally, still 50 points upward potential on very short notice but we would like to see same 50 points upswing during next week failing which we will turn the sign on 'neutral' and...
Wheat: Nothing much changed in our views on this market. We are still in an area which we see as a jungle from where we see no exit (either up or down) and we want to see that price breaks out of the 450/485 'no-mans-land-zone' before we pick any side. The moves during the past week and, maybe oddly enough, especially during the last 3 sessions start making look...
Short term targets on the downside: - 9 day MA around 129 - middle BBand at around 125.50 - Fib retracements
Soybean spreads are out of line historically and these kind of levels were only seen in the 2013 bull run .Since this is not a fundamental rally once selling comes in spreads will be hurt badly.Sell the Jan-March or Nov-March spread.
Wheat: Price has made a move up during the past week but has not yet left the 'jungle'. No changes from our point of view and we want to see clearer picture first before choosing sides.
Soybeans: Nothing much changed from our picture of one week ago: price is still in an impulsive move up and has made a 3-day corrective move down after the very strong soar of early last week. The pattern of the corrective move down during the past 3 trading suggests that there is more room to the upside. The soar of May 10 took the price from, roughly, the 1030...
Fundamentally not much bullish... maybe a mini USD meltdown/correction might provide enough to send all commodities flying? Strong support around 420-430
Price did not make the corrective move down to 975 during last week as was preferred by us but rather traded a sideways pattern between, roughly 1010 and 1050. It doesn't change our general expectation of the development of this price but we need to adjust our preferred path a bit. We take our view to the upside from here and have a bias with 1100 as target which...
Price did not develop as per our preferred path during last week and broke through the downside of our ascending price channel. This makes us feel less comfortable although the critical supportive level of 450 remains intact for now. However, with the price making a move down last week we will only start feeling more comfortable if price breaks the 480 level and...
RunningAlpha dot com Capital Markets Intelligence High Priority Update for Monday, May 2nd, 2016 Although $39 and $36.50 remains baseline intermediate to long-term support for Light Crude Oil ( in reference to June Contract Pricing ), the recent advance upwards has opened the door for a further short covering rally upwards to $62 to $65, and perhaps $74 to $76...
Soybeans: Price has made a strong move up during most of April but is now running a bit out of breath and needs a correction before it can make another move up. Price is now in a 4 of (3) but has not made a decisive move yet to complete same 4. Ideally, price will make a move down to 975 during first half of the coming week before it reverses and develops its 5 of...