Wheat:
Our last week's sell stop was hit and within 3 sessions our stoploss was hit as well. We have been uncertain about this market for quite some time and stepped in based on an analysis that proved to be wrong. Time for us to leave this market in peace for a while and to see what happens next. No need to dance on all parties.
Soybeans:
Price reached the lower boundary of the ascending price channel and bounced up from there during Friday's session. The candle was a Bullish Engulfing candle which usually is a very reliable reversal pattern. From here we favor a move up during the coming 5 to 10 sessions to the upper boundary of the ascending channel which will offer a short play...
Seems like no frost in Brazil. It was a busy weeks last week and throughout the weekend with fears a frost could hit coffee areas. None has been confirmed and worst fears did not play out.
Once all of this is digested I expect some downside opportunities as the market goes back into trading technicals rather than emotions.
Quite oversold and we saw sell...
Wheat:
After price left the woods it advanced rather impulsively which initially made us decide that we were too late to take the ride up and that we should rather let go. In meantime price has made a reversal in order to test the break-out zone where it more or less has arrived at the close of last Friday.
It seems that the market is offering us a second chance...
Speculative money is the reason behind last weeks rally and profit making will probably be done this next week as soybeans has reached the top of this long-term downtrend.
Climate conditions at the north american crop have been good so far. A transition to El Nina is happening and that could bring hot and dry weather next month. But until then...there is an...
Soybeans:
Price reached our target some time ago already and is performing an overshoot which is nothing unusual as it is just not possible to predict exactly where the waves will end. The EW principle gives us a complete count but that doesn't mean that a top is on the chart indeed already. Taking a position just on basis of the fact that you can see the EW count...
Wheat:
After about a month of moving back and forth in a zone that we described as 'the jungle from where we do not see the exit' the price has come out of the woods on the upside. This encourages us to have a look at possible long play. However, before we will feel comfortable to entertain a long trade we first need to be sure that this is not a bull trap. If we...
Wheat has formed a gigantic weekly base, and is ripe to rally once price moves above 469'6.
It's a bit premature to buy, but we could get away with huge R multiples if this trade setup works.
Open long positions on a break of this level, with stops under the previous week's low.
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately....
As a former commodity trader, I do have love for the agricultural commodities. Coffee has been rising in price since late last year when local coffee prices in Brazil started rise. At the time futures prices were falling. This year reports out of South America sight a beetle, that is devouring coffee plants, it is most certain that Arabica will show a shortage....
Soybeans:
Price has reached our target during the past week and made an impulsive overshoot to even higher levels. Price is also forming a 'ascending broadening wedge' which is a reversal pattern. We believe that price is at or close to the end of its current move up and that it will reverse in a corrective move down of 10-15% soon. The candle of last Friday has a...
Pro Long (Chart):
- RSI and Stochastik created buy signal
- Orange support line
Pro Long (Physical):
- ICE warehouse stocks new lows
- spreads tightening ever so slightly
Contra (Chart):
- still in middle to upper end of trend channel
- room to go in terms of lower Bollinger band
- long term trend still down
- risk/reward for long position not there
IMHO I...
Looking for cotton to go ove 65.94 to short it. MACD showing negative divergence so in the next days should spike up ove 66. Looking to short on that spike up.
Coffee nearing the orange support line around 122 (2nd month continuation, about 119-120 front month ).
Interesting fact about this correction lower from 134 to 122 is that this is the first time in a couple years that we actually have an up-sloping support line (orange line).
If the orange support holds this could mark a longer term trend reversal.
On the...
Soybeans:
Price continued its sideways move during the past week, be it with a wider range than before. The continuation pattern is still intact which indicates that the 1120/1130 range is still a valid target. We would have liked to see same target reached during the past week which did not happen and which makes us additionally wary. We want to hang on to our...
